Catherine, you can't predict page views accurately using the limited statistics of past page views. Because every Hub is unique, they do not elicit a uniform response. Web traffic does not flow steadily, nor can it be presumed to do nothing but increase in the future.
I think we should start taking bets as to if HubPages is going to even last long enough for you to 250,000 views.
I work way too hard. I'm making payout every month, but for the number of hours I put in--let's just workers in a Chinese sweat shop are getting better paid than me. I might not make it to 1 million because I'm thinking of just letting it go.
I hear you, Catherine. It certainly makes you step back and say, "what am I doing?" I sometimes wish I could devote the majority of my time to writing more articles. I do miss the hubtool. But it's not realistic right now as I run my practice and prepare for kids summer camp at my church. I look forward to celebrating milestones soon. Carry on, you're an inspiration.
Janshares: Even more annoying is that I had my first hub unfeatured hub because I updated it. Evidently standards have changed since I first posted it. HP said it t was spammy. So I unspammed it and it is still not featured for no reason I can think of. I'm not going to update my early hubs anymore.
Congratulations Catherine, that's an awesome achievement in such a short time!
I saw your question wasn't answered yet. For that you can try to analyse the statistics. Extrapolations are tricky and you can never rely on them. The most reliable extrapolation functions are the 4th grade (quartic) polynomials. For them to be reliable enough don't extrapolate further than twice the period (twice the time you're here = 2×13 months). Then you'll know probably the best answer.
You can redo this every time you like, after 14 months (2×14=28 months), after 15 months, etcetera. When you find 1 million in your extrapolation, you'll have probably your best answer.
Disclaimer: the warranty is until I pressed the 'Submit' button
Buildreps: The math is way over my head. I can guess at it by taking estimates of per week counts and assuming per week counts will rise with time. (That will work except when a hub goes viral.) I asked about 1 million views hoping that hubbers who have reached that level would say how long it took them.
Producing new hubs has slowed down. The religion hubs--which I am now focusing on because they are by far the most popular-- take a lot of research. I can't get the idea in the morning and post that evening. and managing a lot of popular hubs is also time consuming.
One negative thing about having popular hubs--the content thieves find you. It is a big time waster to find them and make them take my content off their websites. So far I have been lucky enough to take it down right away, but one theft was up for six weeks before I found it. I just found another thief today. (And this thief was a major player with an elaborate website.)So this weekend instead of writing I will have to copyscape my hubs to see what else, if anything, has been stolen. Another reason why getting popular means fewer hubs.
Although I agree with relache´s statement about it being impossible to predict future performance based on past results, I will tell you that the majority of people have noticed once that the first 100,000 is reached there is a more rapid increase in page views. (I do wish there was a 500,000 accolade in the middle of there though.) For example, I hit the 100,000 at about 9 months, but it only took about 15 months after that to hit the next 900,000. It goes a lot faster if you stay active and post more hubs. (If you have more to say about bees, I am certainly interested!) Congratulations and keep on going! I hope we are all around to see you hit that 1 million accolade.
DrMark1961; I think I may be tapped out on bees. After religion, bees are most popular topic. I think these little creatures are fascinating. I want to write more about them, but I don't have an idea. I'm not a beekeeper so I probably need to stay away from anything to technical. Any ideas?
It is hard for me to say too, but I would think beekeepers would look for info like "Why have my bees stopped producing propolis?" and maybe other questions related to diseases in the hive. Or how about "How to get your hives to produce more wax (propolis, honey, etc)? I am not a beekeeper either so I do not know how much help I can be. (I lived in Morocco in the 1980s and there veterinarians have to take care of bees so I was asked a lot of questions that I was not educated to handle.) I am glad the religious studies hubs are working so well for you. I had produced quite a few, mostly on local religious customs, but they had terrible traffic so I ended up deleting all of them!
Venka: Actually for my first 10 months at HP I wrote about everything under the sun, car, jokes, bees, poetry, ,zombies, dragons, quotations, self-help, and more. Then I found my niche--religious studies-- and my views started to soar.
Congrats that's awesome. I hit the million views at just over 2.5 years with 120ish hubs or so. You'll probably hit it sooner than me because your hubs get lots of comments and conversations going and they are very engaging. Way to go!
Thanks Christen S. I'm going to read your hubs to learn the secret of your success. I'm getting most of my views from facebook. I don't get many from goggle. Even tho I have tons of likes, comments and shares on facebook, other sites have are linking to some of my hubs. one of my hubs has tens of thousands of views and still barely any from google. Am I doing something wrong?
Not as far as I'm concerned. The bulk of my traffic on HP is from social media. I say wherever you get the traffic from is fine - if people are reading and interacting who cares how they get here right? that's my philosophy anyway.
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