Well not necessarily, remember last year oil was at a peak and the economy was going down the drain, Oil price do have a correlation to the US dollar, but it does not boots the economy as a whole especially since commodity did not cause the economic anemic we are facing.
I agree - I think that the oil prices and rices on other items are manipulated to create the ups and downs we see. Certain people dumped whole loads of milk and coffee into the Gulf of Mexico in the 1950s in order to raise the prices of both. Today, we have subtler manipulation by speculators perhaps... and like this state that keeps 6 years' full crops of corn in silos while prices increase.
No not at all.
The oil market is driven by many other forces than supply and demand.
The reason that the US is interested in alternative engergy, isn't entirely because it's good for the environment. It's because much of the oil, is held by people who want to destroy us.
The oil market has been driven by commodity speculators and short sellers.
And have you ever heard the phrase stagflation?
And do you realize that the price of oil differs by type and that prices quoted are often East Texas crude, which don't relate to Mid-east or Venezuelan oil.
Crude Oil pricing is an incredibly complex subject... But back to 100 hubs in 30 days.
Wow, no wonder the economy is going down the tubes, if this is the extent of economic calculation these days. Oddly enough oil prices rising can have a detrimental effect on the economy, especially when the rest of the economy is contracting. While it may seem to be good for oil countries and oil companies, in the end it will be bad for them. Whenever prices go up, demand falls. Yes, even for oil. People can drive less, take public transportation, bike to work, even *gasp* walk to work.
Should oil prices remain high enough for long enough, people will change their habits to reflect this and industries like plastics that are dependent on hydrocarbons to make their products will intensify their search for alternatives. So, in the end, prices will fall, people will diversify away from oil and those industries involved in the drilling, transportation and selling of oil will suffer long term consequences. Why do you think the oil embargo failed in the 1970's? Israel still exists and they didn't leave the occupied territories for another 20 years. Not a very effective weapon.
The oil market has not been driven by commodity speculators and short sellers. What happened there was that the Fed in flooding the markets with credit attempted to re-inflate the housing bubble to stem the losses of the banks. Investors, however, are not that stupid. The market made is decision on the housing market and we're feeling the effects of that now. So what happened is that all this excess liquidity went into commodities, after all it has to go somewhere. So now we had a bubble in commodities, oil especially. The benefit we get from futures traders and short sellers is an idea of where a market is going to go, up or down. So a smart person looks at the futures market to see where it's going to go. The main problem we have are people who just put their money in and forget about it. That's no different than gambling and you get about the same results as you would if you went to Las Vegas.
Why oil? Well it's something that has universal demand, is finite and because of that, it's a good place to park your money when the economy goes to pot. Just like gold. Plus you have some cartels of oil producers who manipulate the price of oil so that they get what they feel is the "correct" price for oil, not what people are willing to pay for it.
Standard Oil is a footnote in history books now, but what few people today seem to realize is that Rockefeller was a genius in controlling the costs of oil production. That allowed him to sell oil more cheaply than anyone else, so people bought Standard Oil. Standard Oil and their cheap oil prices were the reason gasoline was chosen to power cars and not some alternative like hemp. It all comes down to price.
When i think of the latest swing from 147 to 33 i can't help but remind myself of Lindsey Williams dire warning...I was watching is vid on youTube the very week that oil was peaking...at that time he looked like the fool but oil plummeted to well below his predicted 50.
I'm a Canadian and with the oil crash i watched the economy, especially the western most provinces get hammered.
Many small start up oiling companies and mining companies lost their contracts and their businesses. The banks stopped supplying venture loans and upped their borrowing standards.
This forced the small (millionaire investors) to give up with losses or face losing it all. But having lost the bank credentials they can't get back into the game so suddenly the price of oil goes up and another group of millionaire investors start up small cap businesses and in time the giant comes around and crashes the market just enough to get them out with a loss.
Give it up or lose it all....in poker this is the art of the bluff and of always considering the size of your bankroll relative to the size of the antes on the table.
So the giants wait for enough players to get into the oil game, players under capitalized, or over leveraged, and then they pull the bluff...but they have so much capital that they can run that bluff for ever almost.
What a sick world they control. Everytime they pull this swing they get to control a little more and drive humanity closer to a one world order where a select few drive the time machine. They also run governments...
Eventually it's socialism under the guise of capitalism. And then it's socialism where the government buys up all the garbage assets with fake newly printed money and charge the citizens a vig to continue playing the game that normal play in the name of "contributing to society".
But it's more like contributing to the demise of society.
It is normal under the current paradigm or the spirit of the time.
That's what they teach in colleges and universities.
But that's just my opinion.
Oil is at 60-63 and it most likely is going to 78. Then if there is enough money in the pot it's going to crash again. If not then 100 seems like a psychological test.
Sorry about the lengthy post but some things just can't be said properly on twitter type threads.
It is the speculators getting back in because the perception is that the economy is getting better and people will travel more. Plus commodities are more volatile and while there is more risk, there is also more potential for greater and quicker profits.
If you go back to the root cause of the problems we have had with the economy, you will see that it started with the rapid rise of oil futures. Greed fueled the unrealistic pricing of oil, it was not truly based in supply and demand, just paper trading. Will they have learned from this? I doubt it. Greed is so pervasive and the government has no balls to do anything to control the speculation.
Worst yet, they are buying the garbage with the taxpayers dollar...worst yet with dollars borrowed on the taxpayers dollar....it logic gone insane....
I hope i'm wrong about my opinion in this case because if i am right then the only truth about this TARP plan of insanity is that they are selling todays children into prisons of social servitude....
There's nothing different under the sun today...
When has there been a Memorial Day without oil prices going up? The oil companies come up with all of their stories but every single year regardless of the economy, the international situation, or the storms in the Atlantic; oil prices go up. They can always go up more but they will never go down in the summer. The driving season is here and they need to cash in.
Oil prices have nothing to do with economy, and all about how much they think they can suck out of you.
You're suckers, you see, and the oil is all on you.
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