Haggling at the Iranian Nuclear Bazaar
If you were around or know the how the Vietnam war peace talks were conducted, you would see many parallels to the current West and Iranian nuclear negotiations. Then, America was desperate for a peace deal to get out of a war they no longer wanted. So, during the few years of peace talks with the North Vietnamese were masters of the insignificant, stalling, refusals and haggling. The NVA haggled about the shape of the negotiation table (I kid you not), made demands, walked out frequently and gave only up small morsels to America to appease them in order to drag on the talks over months into years. Meanwhile, the war continued, as if there were no peace talks that would solve anything except agree to disagree!
Time was on the NVA side. They knew America wanted out of Vietnam- badly. Because of this, the NVA demands were more and more agreed to. American patience for negotiation had reached near zero levels. What looked decent on paper as to a "Peace" agreement, was really just a a "pause" in the war, mostly in 1974, which allowed the NVA to begin a massive buildup of Soviet arms for a planned final offensive in 1975. Few of the American negotiators really felt the agreement would mean a lasting peace, after all, the fight for Vietnam began in the late 1940's with the French.
Today, the West and Iran are dancing around the nuclear weapons table. Iran wants to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran has been seeking it for well over 20 years, at first covertly, until they could not deny it. This is like being on the same path as the NVA were seeking to overthrow the South. Like the NVA, Iran will not give it up-ever. There may be a treaty but they will covertly continue on enrichment.
The last round of talks were a joke. Most of the negotiations have been that. A lot of haggling over details and then repudiation from Iran's religious leader. The West's negotiators are totally frustrated. Few of them actually believe Iran will stop enriching to get a nuclear weapon. Yet, a deal is better than no deal.
Well, any deal is moot. It was moot with North Vietnam then, it is moot with Iran today. In order to get Iran to agree to agreeing in an extension of the nuclear talks for another four months, the West, had to pay Iran $2.8 billion. What was this? A down payment for peace? An Iranian bribe or they will walk? Iran is just "milking" the West of money and concessions, stalling, as they continue to enrich uranium.
Despite the minutia of nuclear details being negotiated, the central question nagging the West is: Will a final agreement prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon OR just give it an option to build one when it choose to? Also in the back of their minds is how to prevent Iran from developing a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear bomb? That issue has not even been talked about because Iran already has many of them- just not capable of carrying a nuke. How would the West prevent this?
Iran's supreme leader has called for increased ballistic missile production. So, you know the West will never achieve this critical element. Then, there are the 19000 centrifuges Iran has trying enrich uranium to weapon levels. The West insists these must be reduced to 4000. But, Iran already announced it has developed a newer type of centrifuge that is out of sight of U.N. inspectors. I guess these are exempt? I guess these are just spinning on the side creating weaponized uranium.
Both the President of Iran and its Supreme Leader have publicly stated Iran will not destroy any centrifuges and that Iran will increase its enrichment capacity! So, what exactly is the West negotiating? Only terms that Iran is willing to give up? Even if a miracle occurs, and Iran does reduce enrichment, they still can enrich enough for 1-3 bombs a year. I don't think a miracle is going to happen.
The West seems to think that U.N. inspectors will be able to detect any breaches of the the agreement. Well, until Iran openly announced its enrichment sites, the West was clueless about them. Iran is a master of deception and always finds a way around a road block. Even today, Iran breaches U.N. sanctions agreed to last November by illicitly buying parts for its ballistic missiles.
Despite harsh talk, Iran continues to get what it wants- $11 billion in sanction relief- something they demanded to negotiate. This has helped their economy. Many of the violations of the sanctions are simply being ignored by the West because they are desperate for some sort of treaty to contain Iran. Is this a joke?
Iran is getting more hard line on certain terms because they know the West IS desperate for a treaty and will agree to nearly anything Iran wants. Remember, President Obama stated that Iran had six months.
That was six months ago!
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