Why Global Warming Is Irreversible Part II

We can hope for a miraculous sudden technological or scientific breakthrough that would not only provide the world trillions of megawatts of affordable GHG-free energy, but would scrub the entire atmosphere of this planet in a gigantic, benevolent Terraforming process. Surely that would reverse the effects of ECC and prevent the economic, geographic and social displacement of billions of people in the upcoming decades. Unfortunately, not only is such a breakthrough probable or likely, it isn't even currently imaginable. Yes, miracles can happen. It might be a very good idea to pray for one.

Actually, one may already be occurring. We are experiencing a period of very low sunspot activity which diminishes the amount of solar radiation we receive. If we were in anywhere near a normal period of activity, we'd be considerably toastier already! However, the sun could start spotting again any day now and then, watch out!

Ever since I was young, I would always stop a child from playing with matches and I would always keep a puppy from running across the freeway. That same instinct was triggered when I realized that everything we recognize as human civilization was in imminent danger and the very people we had selected to save us from this peril were blissfully oblivious to the hard data of the reality of the situation.

The basic point of this Hub is that the entire "Global Warming Media Industry" is based on a fallacy: That we can actually do something, anything to reverse the climatic effects. There is nothing, repeat, nothing in current science and/or technology and/or the expectation of developments in the foreseeable future that will allow us to not only reverse the effects but to even hold them at current levels.

You might want to read that last paragraph a couple of times. Let it really sink in.

If every single man, woman and child on Earth, all 6.7 billion of us, were suddenly teleported off this planet, the existing GreenHouse Gases (GHGs) in the lower atmosphere would take the next 140 years to percolate upwards into the stratosphere. That means that ECC's climatic effects would get worse for about another century and a half before they stabilized. And that's if we can get every single human off this planet today in order to stop generating another GHG molecule.

The hard, incontrovertible, unbiased scientific evidence clearly proves this beyond the shadow of a doubt.

Then of course I have to confront those who cling to that undefinable and ethereal concept of Hope. “Oh, ECC is bad, but there is hope, there is always hope!” Hope has to be based on a realistic expectation of the application of a catalyst for positive change. The heroin addict entering the Betty Ford clinic has a realistic expectation of being cured, thus there is hope. The terminal breast cancer patient reading about advances in Herceptin can have hope that the developments will come in time to save her life. However, the Suzuki Hayabusa rider who has just sliced through a guardrail by underestimating a mountain road curve at 130 mph and is plummeting 1,000 feet to the rocky valley below doesn't have any hope. He just has some time. In his case, measured in a couple of seconds until splat!

This Hub could have gone off in the direction of advising the Suzuki rider of the possibility of re-jigging his leather jacket to serve as a parachute, or ripping off the seat foam and using it to cushion his landing, but is that a responsible response to his critical situation? Is the leather jacket-chute really going to slow down his fall enough, or two inches of foam cushion him enough to prevent grievious bodily injury or even death in exactly 2 seconds from now?

Sure, I could berate the rider for hitting such a sharp corner at 130 mph and tell him that if he had tackled it at 30 mph he'd likely not be in the situation he's in. But unless his Hayabusa doubles as a Time-Travel Machine, what good would that do?

If the rider is religious, then maybe I could advise him to pray. That would be a valuable piece of advice.

I am not an apocalyptic ogre wishing death and destruction on the only planet our race has. I will gladly rewrite or even retract this Hub outright if a scientific theory can be advanced that has exactly one percent chance of being successful at not reversing the effects of ECC, but just slowing them down at any time in this 21st century. Therefore, if Mr. Nobel Prize proposes Theory X that if implemented today has a 1 in 100 chance of alleviating ECC effects by the same one percent by 2099, I'll gladly go back into my Hub Control Panel and hit the Delete button on this. However, I have a funny feeling that it's going to stick around for a good while.

Al Gore and Sir Richard Branson have established a foundation called Virgin Earth. It offers a substantial $25 million prize to anyone who can come up with a way to "atmospherically scrub" the ECC particles and molecules from the Earth's air. It sounds like a very laudable project until we do a little math. It turns out that if we advance current technology of removing anthropogenic, atmospheric GHGs from the atmosphere by a factor of one million times, then this process becomes feasible. If by feasible we can accept that the process would:

  1. Be based on the immediate elimination of the generation of every single molecule of additional GHG starting today.
  2. Take 337 years to complete the “scrubbing” of 5,000 trillion metric tons of atmosphere.
  3. Cost the entire current global GDP for the next 74,158 years.
  4. Require the energy generated by covering every single square inch of Australia with 600MW Nuclear Power Plants. If we chose to generate the electricity with 600MW gas or coal facilities, then we would still need just as many plants, but the GHGs they would generate would swamp the scrubbers causing a huge net yearly increase in GHG.

If Sir Branson wants to apply $25 million of his money towards a pie-in-the-sky fantasy, then it's his business. However, it is quite transparent by the name of Virgin Earth that the savvy self-marketer has come up with a campaign that is little more than a promotional tool for his other Virgin brands in order to appease the green consumer market. The same one that is up in arms at jets such as his that are the major source of high-altitude "contrail" contamination. That's why it's so surprising that Al Gore, Gaia Author James Lovelock, Dr. James Hansen, the Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the other people who have signed up have been gullible enough to swallow it.

Perhaps I should launch my own foundation and corresponding prize. “$25 million to the first woman to give natural birth to a flying pig.” Why not round it up to $100 million? I'll never have to pay up anyway.

I've roamed around remote northern corners of British Columbia reviewing the Mountain Pine Beetle devastation brought on by climate change as well as visiting Nunavut and the Northwest Territories getting first-hand information on the effects of ECC on the fragile Arctic ecosystem. Am I supported by a university or institute? No. Am I part of a formal scientific research team? No. I'm a maverick Hub writer, and I'm well aware that the term "maverick" can disturb some people. I genuflect at the framed photos of Hunter S. Thompson and Ernest Hemingway. That's the way I've always been, and since I'm now old and gray and addled, it's too late to change now.

I'm sure Shakespeare ordered his dinner at the pub in iambic pentameter and I can't change my writing style either (and I'm far from being a Shakespeare). This is the way I write. I believe that it's informative and informed but in the common vernacular. I can't bring myself to compose dry peer-review prose. The IPCC report is available to anyone. I write only what I have extensively researched and verified, so there can be no disputing the hard, verifiable sources of the information I've used to come to this conclusion. And my conclusion is: "we're screwed."

Maybe this Hub could open some eyes that wouldn't ordinarily be opened, perhaps from some obscure unorthodox apostate dormant-genius who will come up with a ECC Curbing theory that will change our world much as E=mc2 did a century ago. We can only "hope". But I'm starting to lose that "hope," as I'm only seeing the motorcycle hurtling down the cliff.

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Comments 32 comments

Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

Aaaaah! Hal, stop posting so much so I can keep up with you! D: Also; good morning!

I've been getting extremely conflicting reports on global warming, with most people believing it and others claiming we're actually getting colder. I don't know anymore. Alls I know is, the damage is done, and even if we hadn't helped it along, it would have happened on its own anyway, because that's the way the world works.

I'm still waiting for the supernova of the sun to wipe out all the inner-orbital planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars). When I think that far ahead, I don't have to worry about global warming! :D


Misha profile image

Misha 7 years ago from DC Area

Frankly, I personally am not convinced in global warming - for the sole purpose of adding to your confusion Kika :)


quicksand profile image

quicksand 7 years ago

Rapid re-foresting was spoken of, a couple of decades back in order to counter this CO2 build up. Now it is completely forgotten. Probably the costs are prohibitive. How many hectares could be re-forested with 25M$? Re-foresting is probably the sane thing to do ... but totally impossible ...


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

>.< Darn you, Misha! lol. I'm not entirely confused on the subject. I think there are global climate changes, but I have a hard time buying the warming part, especially here in Minnesota where our winters have been getting colder and our summers haven't been nearly as hot as they were when I was younger. I remember temperatures reaching 100, but now, we're lucky to get 90 degree days. It kind of puts a damper on the whole GLOBAL WARMING AAAAAAAAH! deal.


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Kika: Sorry, but I write in spurts, and NO I'm not going to go to the obvious pun. I have to dispute that the damage would have happened on its own, as the global warming we are experiencing is 100% generated by humans. If Australopithecus Africanus had taken a turn back up the tree, there would likely be absolutely no global warming effects int the world today. The sun is too small to supernova as it falls far below Chandrasekhar limit's of 8 solar masses, so all we can expect is for our sun to just dwarf away. Of course, by then even younguns like you will be long gone. Also, global warming does not necessarily mean that everyone gets hotter. It's that the world's total average temps go up. That causes all sorts of atmospheric disruptions such as the La Nina/ENSO/El Nino cycles in the Pacific.

Misha: Keep confusing her and don't be surprised if she HubSmacks you upside yer head! :)

quicksand: Reforesting costs vary widely depending on the location. If you are reforesting in third world countries with a very low labor cost, you can reforest for under $1,000 a hectare. However, if you are trying the same thing in major industrialized nations where you have to pay well over $10 an hour for your labor, then the cost can be several times that. So let's say at a fair average of $2,000 a hectare, your $25 million would take care of 12,500 hectares or 48 square miles. Since one square mile is about 260 hectares, the cost of reforesting one square mile is $520,000, and that's just one out of over 57 million square miles, since given that the earth's land area is 57,500,000 sq mi. your money has just reforested 0.0000834% of the world. Not really a whole lot. :(


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

Shhhh! I like the idea of the sun supernova-ing! It'd be pretty from outer space, and I'd be long dead by then, so I wouldn't have to worry about cosmic rays and fiery stuffs engulfing the planet. :-P

I dunno, Hal. The earth caused its own ice age, caused its own reheating after said ice age, and will probably do this again. Climates change. Stuff happens. I won't argue that we aren't helping it along at a much faster rate than it would normally go, but I still think it was bound to happen sooner or later, with later being the more obvious choice if we hadn't gone all industrial on earth's butt.

And I'm not gonna HubSmack Misha! ... I might HubGouge out his HubSpleen with a HubSpork in a fit of HubDelirium, but I'm not gonna HubSmack him! xD


Adam York 7 years ago

I often wonder if anyone has given any thought to the fact that humans are basically hairless. Maybe global warming is really a return to our roots as a hairless species. A species in the sense that average humans are not covered head to toe with fur. Possibly our nakedness is the result of living in a globally warm climate and clothing is a result of dealing with global cooling. Now that cooling is reversing maybe it’s the human way to shed clothing and once again enjoy the heat of a globally warm environment. ? Think about it! Why would humanity evolve without fur? Possibly, global warming is the true environment of the very hairless human?


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

... Wait, so you're saying we should all be nudists?

...

I like it! :D


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Kika Rose: Although you might like the supernova sun hypothesis, the fact remains that it is an astrophysical impossibility. However, if you like fiery stuffs engulfing the planet, maybe I can manage to hack into the Pentagon computers and fire off a few thousand ICBMs for you? :) There is no doubt that the Earth has gone through many climatic cycles, yet there is virtually nothing in the archeometeorological record which shows a time of such sudden shifting, except for times when asteroids the size of states hit the planet. BTW, would you like to be a founding member of the Hal Nudist Colony? For consideration, please send an appropriate photo, along with a scan of your drivers license... you wouldn't be the first lady I've ever known who CLAIMED she was 18! :)

Adam York: Hominid species evolved in tropical and desert environments thus it is normal to have shed the fur. It was when our ancestors expanded their territories from central Africa that we came up against climates that require skin protection. As a Canadian, I should welcome Global Warming, as I'm sick and tired of shoveling snow! :)


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

Amen to no more snow! Sadly, that would mean no more snowmobiling or skiing, but I think I'd live. :-P

No, Hal, I would not like to be a member of the Hal Nudist Colony, and I am so not scanning my driver's license just to prove my age. For one thing, I don't have a useable scanner. For another, that could potentially be dangerous for me, what with identity theft on the rise and all. I'd like to keep my identity, thank you very much. I doubt anyone would try to steal it anyway, since I have like, no credit worth stealing. Ah, the joys of being 18... And didn't I mention before that the only way I could be a Domino's driver is by being 18? It's one of the requirements, along with having a reliable vehicle and being to work on time. :-P Could've sworn I'd mentioned that to you before.


quicksand profile image

quicksand 7 years ago

Hal, your nudist colony will only result in keeping cats busy!


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Kika Rose: I can live without snowmobiles, thank you. And there are plenty of fake IDs floating around so I think I'm going to have to go to the Minnesota Records Department and look up your birth certificate! But then, you really should reconsider your Nudist Colony membership! :)

quicksand: No cats in the nudist colony. They love nothing better than springing on things that go springing! And there would be plenty of that in my nudist colony! :)


gwendymom profile image

gwendymom 7 years ago from Oklahoma

I had read somewhere that only 5% of global warming could be blamed on humans. If this is true then it just can't be stopped. I think it is just the way the world works. There is a period of warming, then cooling.


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

That's what I said, gwendy! But Hal shot me down. He also shot down my Sun-Go-Boom idea. :'(

I have my birth certificate somewhere, if you'd rather I took a picture of that, Hal. :-P Would that make you feel better? xD


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

gwendymom: I don't subscribe to that theory as when we consider the variables such as decreased sunspot activity we should actually be in a cooling period. There is no doubt whatsoever that oceanic temperatures have increased significantly as is witnessed by the increasing hurricane strengths and frequencies, as well as the bleaching of coral reefs which have withstood thousands of years.

Kika Rose: Sorry. No Sun-Go-Boom... more like Sun-Go-Droop. Actually, there will be a point in the sun's future where its outer gas corona will expand past the Earth's current orbit frying it to a nice crisp. Is that ok? :) Sorry, but Photoshop is far too readily available. I can make ID to show me as a 21 year old Sailor in the Navy. I'll only stake my future outside of a Federal Penitentiary if I see the original with my own eyes and verify it with the State! :)


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

But... But... I wanna see Sun-Go-Boom! :( lol Nah, I kinda figured our sun was too small to supernova. It'd still be cool as hell, but yeah. Already knew about the crispy bit. ;-P

Okay. I can understand that. But you see, that would require me to know how to use Photoshop, and to actually have Photoshop, and to have a computer that could support Photoshop. I can't even play Black and White 2 on this damn thing. *cries* I have to go over to my friend Cassie's house in order to play it, and she's so busy with work and school, and I'm so busy with two jobs, that I haven't played it in months! Ugh! :'(

I liked burning my minions to the ground... It was fun... *pouts*

... Oh. I wanna see this Photoshop'd Sailor. ;-P Haven't I ever told you sailors in uniform are serious drool-magnets for me? xD Maybe THAT'S why Kyle joined the Navy in the first place! lol!


Adam York 7 years ago

Ouch all this talk of sun spots and sizzling coronas makes me feel like a nudist bacon fry! You know pigs are quite hairless too! Some say more closely related to humans allowing for transplant of pig organs to humans. I really doubt the pig is going to build a shelter from the sizzling sun corona. So, if we are smart we build a pit and enjoy a naked BBQ. Humans rule !!!!! However, I don’t think science can yet prove that humans are the cause of global warming. Well, with a few photoshop images of the poles and possibly Greenland we can convince the unsuspecting that pigs can fly and global warming is caused by one too many back-yard BBQs. Just think of all the green houses gasses that could be eliminated by refusing to produce clothing too ….. ! Yes, the answer to global warming is simply nakedness and BBQ. LOL (-:


quicksand profile image

quicksand 7 years ago

and put thousands of fashion designers out of work?


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Kika, we definitely have to take steps to bring you into the 21st century of computing. Maybe you can have my 45nm Yorkfield quad core as a hand me down next month when I get my Core i7? :)

Adam York: Nakedness in the great outdoors is fine and dandy, but up here in the northern climes, it's a bit uncomfortable in January! :(

quicksand: I'd love to be a nudist, but I'd have to do so on a deserted tropical island, not just for the climate but also to ensure that there was no one around to see me and puke. :)


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

... Your what what what? o_O You lost me. Alls I saw was BLAH BLAH BLAH SOMETHING SOMETHING SOMETHNG COMPUTER JARGON GOING WAY OVER MY HEAD!

Oi, don't even start talking about January temperatures. -60 and lower here, almost every year. I HATE IT! >.< I demand a life refund for all the winters spent huddling under 7 blankets and dreading the next morning when my feet would freeze to the floor of our kitchen and bathroom.


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Let's put it this way, I was (not really seriously) offering to give you my current state of the art PC when I upgrade to the next generation state of the art which launches next month. But since I like you, but not enough to give you a computer, I really was not overly serious! :)

What's wrong with -60 under blankets? It can be a lot of fun. In order to keep warm on the coldest nights, you should avail yourself of the advanced thermal characteristics of dirty fat old pervs! :)


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

xD Oh my god, Hal, that's dirty! *falls off her chair laughing* I'd rather not share my little-bitty twin bed with anybody. One of us might (get pushed off) fall off, and then were would we be? One frozen, and me all warm and toasty and totally hogging my blankets. ^_^

'sides, you'd never be able to navigate my bedroom without a safety-zone map. There are indeed safety zones, and if you step out of them, you will get hurt. And I am NOT showing you where they are. ;-P Plus, Maddie would probably eat your face off. If that happens, I promise to rescue you. ... After I've taken pictures and video and uploaded them to the internet. :-D


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Oh, yeah, anything as long as you can get some web fodder from it, huh? :) And no, I'm not going to state the obvious line that the twin bed would be large enough since we would be stacked vertically! :) Say hi to Maddie and tell her that like the rest of me, my face is too old, wrinkled and moldy to taste good! :)


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

Who says we'd be stacked vertically? Like I want to die in my sleep from asphyxiation of an old, fat pervert? :-P

lol I'll tell her, though I doubt she's gonna care. She's my attacks-anyone-over-5'3-and-is-male dog! xD


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Haha! I'm safe then, since I wouldn't be 5'3" if I wore stiletto heels and stood on a stepladder! :)


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

Ah, but you're still male. Therein lies the problem. :-P Maddie's very smart; she won't hurt kids, just grown men. And seeing as you're a dirty old coot, she'd have to attempt murder. At least she wouldn't lick you to death, like my puppy Melvin would. The stench of his breath alone is enough to knock out Mike Tyson. xD


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Have you ever considered a cat? Especially one that rides motorcycles? :)


Heh 7 years ago

Just absured.. you base your theories on data that was never even recorded? So... I guess we had meteorologists in 200 AD or hell give it 150 BC or earlier, whom gathered, but by some mythical roman conspiracy decided to deleted it off their tape drives!

Hal, You've got some serious mental issues, pathetic to say the least to come here boasting that "YOU KNOW" when in fact every single one of your articles is full of cow shit.

It's a fact the planet, much less the universe, goes through astrological climate changes and where we live (Earth - You must be from moronsville) has gone through massive climate changes hundreds, if not thousands, of times. The evidence is in the rock bed, surely you fail Geology.

Oh wait... but for a self proclaimed "famous" author you got to know everything ;)


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

You, sir, are not only an idiot, but you obviously lack the mental capacity to spell archeometeorology, let alone understand the thousands of references to it. Kindly educate yourself before you return here.


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

Hal, I have a cat named Thomasina and a kitten named Sophie. Neither of them rides motorcycles. But they do like to ride on the four-wheeler with me. :-P


Hal Licino profile image

Hal Licino 7 years ago from Toronto Author

Aw... kittens on an ATV. I'd love to see pix! :)


Kika Rose profile image

Kika Rose 7 years ago from Minnesota

Remind me to take some when it's not so damn cold out. >.< You should see when Sophie tries to hop a ride in my car. It's adorable, but at the same time, she hides under my break pedal until I go to back out of the driveway and lo and behold, I'd plopped the pedal right on the cat. Thus, I have invested in a jingly collar. ^_^ Works like a charm. Though she still rides on the roof if I don't get her off... I once got all the way to the end of the road before she mrowled loud enough for me to get her down!

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