Early Oscar Projections 2010

Really, this is the last month anyone could say their Oscar predictions are "early." Traditionally, awards season doesn’t usually kick off until around October. Lately, though, a larger number of films have begun to build buzz in September.

So before it becomes too obvious which films are the most likely to earn Academy Award nominations, I thought I’d take a few stabs in the dark now. I’m not going to do any blow-by-blow analysis right now, because essentially, every section would more or less state the same thing: I’m just making educated guesses.

Just to note, I’m not including early projections for the Original Song and Foreign Language Film categories. With the former, it’s hard to tell which songs are original, and even the ones that are deemed eligible might be disqualified when it gets closer to the Oscar nomination announcement.

With the latter, you usually don’t start hearing about what films each country will choose to represent them until about September. Nevertheless, based on the buzz they received from Cannes (or other sources), six films are already on my radar. They are: France’s The Concert and Of Gods and Men, Mexico’s Biutiful, South Korea’s The Housemaid and Poetry, and Thailand’s Uncle Boonme Who Can Recall His Past Lives.

 

BEST PICTURE

  • "127 Hours"
  • "The American"
  • "Another Year"
  • "Blue Valentine"
  • "The Fighter"
  • "The Kids Are All Right"
  • "Never Let Me Go"
  • "The Social Network"
  • "Toy Story 3"
  • "The Tree of Life"

 

 

DIRECTOR

  • "127 Hours" (Danny Boyle)
  • "Another Year" (Mike Leigh)
  • "The Fighter" (David O. Russell)
  • "The Social Network" (David Fincher)
  • "The Tree of Life" (Terrence Malick)

 

ACTOR

  • Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"
  • Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"
  • Robert Duvall, "Get Low"
  • Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"
  • Ryan Gosling, "Blue Valentine"

 

ACTRESS

  • Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"
  • Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"
  • Hilary Swank, "Conviction"
  • Naomi Watts, "Fair Game"
  • Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Christian Bale, "The Fighter"
  • Ed Harris, "The Way Back"
  • Bill Murray, "Get Low"
  • Sam Rockwell, "Conviction"
  • Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Helena Bonham-Carter, "The King's Speech"
  • Barbara Hershey, "Black Swan"
  • Keira Knightley, "Never Let Me Go"
  • Blake Lively, "The Town"
  • Lesley Manville, "Another Year"

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • "127 Hours" (Simon Beaufoy)
  • "Another Year" (Mike Leigh)
  • "Blue Valentine" (Derek Cianfrance and others)
  • "The Fighter" (Keith Dorrigton and others)
  • "The Kids Are All Right" (Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg)

 

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • "Never Let Me Go" (Alex Garland)
  • "Rabbit Hole" (David Lindsay-Abaire)
  • "The Social Network" (Aaron Sorkin)
  • "Toy Story 3" (Michael Ardnt and others)
  • "Winter's Bone" (Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini)

 

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • "How To Train Your Dragon"
  • "The Illusionist"
  • "Toy Story 3"
  • IF THERE ARE 5 NOMINEES: "Despicable Me" and "Tangled"

 

ART DIRECTION - SET DECORATION

  • "Alice in Wonderland"
  • "The Conspirator"
  • "Inception"
  • "Micmacs"
  • "Tron: Legacy"

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • "127 Hours"
  • "Inception"
  • "Micmacs"
  • "The Tree of Life"
  • "True Grit"

 

COSTUME DESIGN

  • "Agora"
  • "Alice in Wonderland"
  • "The Conspirator"
  • "The King's Speech"
  • "The Tempest"

 

FILM EDITING

  • "127 Hours"
  • "The American"
  • "The Fighter"
  • "Inception"
  • "The Social Network"

 

MAKEUP

  • "Alice in Wonderland"
  • "Jonah Hex"
  • "The Wolfman"

 

MUSIC SCORE

  • "Agora" (Dario Marianelli)
  • "Biutiful" (Gustavo Santaolalla)
  • "Never Let Me Go" (Rachel Portman)
  • "Toy Story 3" (Randy Newman)
  • "The Tree of Life" (Alexandre Desplat)

 

SOUND MIXING

  • "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I"
  • "Inception"
  • "Iron Man 2"
  • "Salt"
  • "Tron: Legacy"

 

SOUND EDITING

  • "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I"
  • "Inception"
  • "Iron Man 2"
  • "Salt"
  • "Tron: Legacy"

 

VISUAL EFFECTS (this category will now have 5 nominees)

  • "Alice in Wonderland"
  • "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part I"
  • "Inception"
  • "Iron Man 2"
  • "Tron: Legacy"

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