Emmy Predictions 2012 - MINISERIES

Lastly, here are my predictions for this Thursday's Primetime Emmy nominations in the miniseries/movie categories. This marks the last time we'll see Lead Actor/Actress and Supporting Actor/Actress nominees.

Next year, lead and supporting categories will be grouped into the generic ACTOR or ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE, due to a low output by networks across the board (PBS and HBO are the only ones who really bother at this point).

As far as this year goes, American Horror Story, an actual drama series, smartly campaigned in a field where it has a much better shot at garnering multiple nominations (and at least one win). Outside of that, however, this feels like one area where an HBO movie about a certain politician's rise to infamy is set to walk home with a slew of trophies. . .



MINISERIES OR MOVIE

  • AMERICAN HORROR STORY
  • GAME CHANGE
  • GREAT EXPECTATIONS
  • HATFIELDS & McCOYS
  • HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN
  • THE HOUR


The frontrunner here is definitely GAME CHANGE, and it's also the only thing in this category that feels like a safe bet. AMERICAN HORROR STORY's popularity, however, helps its cause. PAGE EIGHT could make the cut, but its severe lack of intrigue keeps it out of the top six.


  1. American Horror Story
  2. Game Change
  3. Hatfields & McCoys
  4. Hemingway & Gellhorn
  5. Luther*
  6. Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia*




LEAD ACTOR

  • Kevin Costner HATFIELDS & McCOYS
  • Idris Elba LUTHER
  • Woody Harrelson GAME CHANGE
  • Bill Nighy PAGE EIGHT
  • Clive Owen HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN


Elba would appear to have the best performance on display here, but that was the case last year, too, and he lost to THE KENNEDYS' Barry Pepper (I have no idea why). Many pundits seem to be favoring Clive Owen, but he was hardly outstanding in the overlong and undercooked HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN. It would be nice if Dominic West was nominated for either APPROPRIATE ADULT or THE HOUR if, for no other reason, to give WIRE fans a bit of a McNulty-Stringer Bell reunion. Benedict Cumberbatch (SHERLOCK) and Martin Landau (HAVE A LITTLE FAITH) are two other possibilities.


  1. KEVIN COSTNER - Hatfields & McCoys
  2. BENEDICT CUMBERBATCH - Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia*
  3. IDRIS ELBA - Luther
  4. WOODY HARRELSON - Game Change
  5. CLIVE OWEN - Hemingway & Gellhorn
  6. BILL PAXTON - Hatfields & McCoys*




LEAD ACTRESS

  • Patricia Clarkson FIVE
  • Nicole Kidman HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN
  • Melissa Leo THE SPACE BETWEEN
  • Julianne Moore GAME CHANGE
  • Emily Watson APPROPRIATE ADULT


Most lists include Rachel Weisz, but I wonder how many of those people have actually watched PAGE EIGHT. She barely makes any sort of impression in her short scenes. Regardless, at the end of the day, no one really threatens to take away the award from Julianne Moore.

Other possibilities: Connie Britton (AMERICAN HORROR STORY), Ashley Judd (MISSING) and Emma Thompson (THE SONG OF LUNCH).


  1. CONNIE BRITTON - American Horror Story*
  2. ASHLEY JUDD - Missing*
  3. NICOLE KIDMAN - Hemingway & Gellhorn
  4. JULIANNE MOORE - Game Change
  5. EMMA THOMPSON - The Song of Lunch*




SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Powers Boothe HATFIELDS & McCOYS
  • Michael Gambon PAGE EIGHT
  • Ed Harris GAME CHANGE
  • Denis O'Hare AMERICAN HORROR STORY
  • David Strathairn HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN


Harris is the frontrunner. Powers Boothe is the only other person I think is a near lock. Other than that, I could see any of the others missing out on nominations due to small screen time. One person I don't think has a shot here is Ralph Fiennes (PAGE EIGHT).

Other possibilities: Tom Berenger (HATFIELDS & McCOYS), Martin Freeman (SHERLOCK) and Roger Moore (A PRINCESS FOR CHRISTMAS).


  1. TOM BERENGER - Hatfields & McCoys*
  2. MARTIN FREEMAN - Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia*
  3. ED HARRIS - Game Change
  4. DENIS O'HARE - American Horror Story
  5. DAVID STRATHAIRN - Hemingway & Gellhorn




SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Gillian Anderson GREAT EXPECTATIONS
  • Judy Davis PAGE EIGHT
  • Jessica Lange AMERICAN HORROR STORY
  • Sarah Paulson GAME CHANGE
  • Mare Winningham HATFIELDS & McCOYS


Lange is the one to beat, and she should be. Her intro in the first episode alone was awards-worthy. Judy Davis is always a viable threat whenever she's up for anything, but had AMERICAN HORROR STORY campaigned in the drama category, GREAT EXPECTATIONS' Gillian Anderson might be the in the driver's seat. Frances Conroy (AMERICAN HORROR STORY) and Lara Pulver (SHERLOCK) have outside chances of scoring nominations.


  1. JUDY DAVIS - Page Eight
  2. FRANCES CONROY - American Horror Story*
  3. JESSICA LANGE - American Horror Story
  4. SARAH PAULSON - Game Change
  5. MARE WINNINGHAM - Hatfields & McCoys




DIRECTING

  • AMERICAN HORROR STORY ("Part 1") - Ryan Murphy
  • BIRDSONG - Philip Martin
  • GAME CHANGE - Jay Roach
  • HATFIELDS & McCOYS - Kevin Reynolds
  • HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN - Philip Kaufman


Other possibilities: AMERICAN HORROR STORY (Alfonso Gomez-Rejon), GREAT EXPECTATIONS (Brian Kirk), THE HOUR (Coky Giedroyc), PAGE EIGHT (David Hare) and SHERLOCK: A SCANDAL IN BELGRAVIA (Paul McGuigan).


  1. Game Change - JAY ROACH
  2. Hatfields & McCoys - KEVIN REYNOLDS
  3. Hemingway & Gellhorn - PHILIP KAUFMAN
  4. Luther - SAM MILLER*
  5. Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia - PAUL McGUIGAN*




WRITING

  • GAME CHANGE - Danny Strong
  • GREAT EXPECTATIONS - Sarah Phelps
  • HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN - Jerry Stahl & Barbara Turner
  • THE HOUR - Abi Morgan
  • SHERLOCK: A SCANDAL IN BELGRAVIA - Steven Moffat


Other possibilities: HATFIELDS & McCOYS, LUTHER, PAGE EIGHT and TITANIC.


  1. Game Change - DANNY STRONG
  2. Hatfields & McCoys - TED MANN; RONALD PARKER; BILL KERBY ("Part 2")*
  3. The Hour - ABI MORGAN
  4. Luther - NEIL CROSS*
  5. Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia - STEVEN MOFFAT




CASTING

  • AMERICAN HORROR STORY
  • GAME CHANGE
  • GREAT EXPECTATIONS
  • HATFIELDS & McCOYS
  • HEMINGWAY & GELLHORN


Other possibilities: FIVE, PAGE EIGHT and TREASURE ISLAND.


  1. American Horror Story
  2. Five*
  3. Game Change
  4. Hatfields & McCoys
  5. Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia*



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