Emmys 2009: Predicting the Winners
Next Sunday (September 19), the Primetime Emmy Awards will take place. As is tradition with my family, we will all watch, and we will each attempt to guess who we think will when what in certain categories. Of all the awards shows my family and I participate in, the Emmys are by far the most interesting, because the winners are typically much harder to call. There is no way I can analyze everything (there are many, many, MANY categories in the Emmys), so I'm just narrowing my selection down to the things that should appear on television, including the guest acting spots.
But before I begin, I just want to get on my soapbox for a second and question why voters refused to nominate two of the best shows from this past television season: Friday Night Lights and The Shield. I haven't seen Battlestar Galactia yet (because I'm sure I'd include it), but both of the aforementioned programs embodied excellence, and they deserve much more than what they got.
Now with that out of the way, here are my predictions. . .
DRAMA SERIES: (Mad Men) ~ It's got too much momentum, too many nominations and too much good buzz not to repeat for a second year in a row.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES: (Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad) ~ It's really ridiculous that Hugh Laurie has not won yet, but Cranston's character is complex and sympathetic, and that's hard not to reward.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: (Glenn Close, Damages) ~ Unless Kyra Sedgewick manages to get an amazing amount of surprise votes (and I doubt she will), this is Glenn's to lose, and she won't lose.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES: (Michael Emerson, Lost) ~ Really, this should be Walton Goggins' trophy, but since he is decidedly absent, I do believe Mr. Emerson is worthy in his own right.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: (Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy) ~ The only threat I see is last year's winner Dianne Wiest, and with two nominations this year, I think this is Chandra's best shot yet.
GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES: (Ed Asner, CSI: NY) ~ I thought Ernest Borgnine was fantastic in ER, but his screentime was short, and I just have a feeling Asner will ultimately take this one.
GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES: (Brenda Blethyn, Law & Order: SVU) ~ It's between her and Ellen Burstyn, and from what I saw of Blethyn in a prison jumper, she's got the slight advantage.
DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES: (Mad Men, "The Jet Set") ~ I don't see the other nominees as competition at all, and it's the leading drama contender, so there you go.
WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES: (Mad Men, "Meditations in Emergency") ~ Let's see, 4 out of the 5 nominees here are from Mad Men, and many felt the finale was the best episode yet. Done deal? I think so.
COMEDY SERIES: (30 Rock) ~ The easiest award of the night to call. Everyone else, good night. Thanks for playing.
LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: (Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock) ~ Personally, I'm ready for Steve Carell to win, but I think 30 Rock's got too much momentum in its favor.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES: (Tina Fey, 30 Rock) ~ In addition to being on a very well-respected comedy, she's incredibly well-liked and respected herself. Toni Collette is a possible upset.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: (Neil Patrick Harris, How I Met Your Mother) ~ I don't think hosting hurts his chances at all. Rainn Wilson could win, too, but I think Neil's got this one.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES: (Kristin Chenoweth, Pushing Daisies) ~ She should have won this last year. Plus, how cool would it be for last year's nomination presenters (Harris and Chenoweth) to win on the same night?
GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES: (Steve Martin, 30 Rock) ~ He should win for the way he said "That paint is drying. .weird" alone.
GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES: (Tina Fey, Saturday Night Live) ~ I wouldn't mind if Jennifer Aniston won, but no one can deny how perfect Tina was as Sarah Palin.
DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES: (The Office, "Stress Relief") ~ I would think a consistently well-directed show like Flight of the Conchords would win, but everyone's saying this, so I will, too.
WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES: (30 Rock, "Apollo, Apollo") ~ Well, pretty sure it's gonna be 30 Rock. I don't have much clue as to which episode, so I'll just stick with this.
MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE: (Grey Gardens) ~ Should win quite handily, unless Prayers for Bobby is much more admired than I think.
MINISERIES: (Generation Kill) ~ This better win. It's one of the most engaging miniseries I've ever seen; better than Band of Brothers. Oh yeah, it is.
LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE: (Ian McKellen, King Lear) ~ I'd love it if either Kevin Bacon or Brendan Gleeson won, but I think the respectability and the meaty performance of Sir Ian are too much to pass over.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE: (Sigourney Weaver, Prayers for Bobby) ~ I actually think Drew Barrymore stands a very good shot, but as soon as Prayers hit, unanimous buzz followed Sigourney, and it never went away.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE: (Tom Courtenay, Little Dorrit) ~ No idea. He was great in Doctor Zhivago (from 1965). Sounds good enough to me.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE: (Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Saddam) ~ Great actress who probably should have won an Oscar in 2004. I don't think she has much competition here.
DIRECTING FOR A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE: (Generation Kill, "Bomb in the Garden") ~ War types seem like directing win shoo-ins, and this one's great. I'd be very surprised if it lost.
WRITING FOR A MINISERIES OR A MOVIE: (Grey Gardens) ~ I figure the love will be split between the top miniseries and the top movie, so here's where the other should prevail.
REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM: (The Amazing Race) ~ Second easiest category to call. This always seems to win. Always.
HOST FOR A REALITY-COMPETITION PROGRAM: (Tom Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars) ~ I know Jeff Probst won last year, but I have a feeling Dancing's host will walk away with the trophy this time.
VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SERIES: (The Daily Show with Jon Stewart) ~ This always wins, but I think any of the nominees could this year, particularly Saturday Night Live or Real Time with Bill Maher.
VARIETY, MUSIC OR COMEDY SPECIAL: (Kathy Griffin: She'll Cut a Bitch) ~ No idea. Kathy's won an Emmy before, and I think she's funny. The end.
SPECIAL CLASS PROGRAM: (81st Annual Academy Awards) ~ This is a new category, so I doubt anyone else knows for sure. With the big dance number and past nominees acknowledging new ones, I think the Oscars should be an Emmy winner.
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