Golden Globe Predix: A Bad Year To Be A Comedy (or a Musical)
I've complained about this already, and before the 2011 Oscar ceremony arrives, I'm sure I'll whine about it a little more, but the point stands: 2010 has not been a great year for film. And if you want proof of this, look no further than the potential nominees for next year's Golden Globe Awards, specifically, in the musical or comedy category.
After sitting through the fantastical garbage that was Alice in Wonderland, I took solace in the fact that I wouldn't have to worry about that film garnering any accolades when awards season rolled around.
That was in March. We're in December now, well into awards season, and my thinking has changed completely. I'm not only convinced that the worst film I've seen from 2010 will make an appearance at the 2011 Globes, I think it may even win something, thanks in large part to some very weak competition in its genre.
I have my issues with the dramas, too, especially when it comes to some of the more buzzed-about titles, but at least you're not having to scrape from the very bottom of the barrel just to get five nominees.
Below I've taken a stab at how I think the Hollywood Foreign Press will present their picks for the best of 2010. As always, I've only just focused on film (though I will be predicting the television winners).
The Globe nominees announce next Tuesday, Dec. 14.
Best Picture (Drama)
- 127 HOURS
- BLACK SWAN
- THE KING'S SPEECH
- THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Could Also See: The Fighter; True Grit
Commentary: It would be a big surprise if the four films that played well on the festival circuits (127 Hours, Black Swan, The King's Speech, The Social Network) failed to get nominated. The wild card here is Inception, though it's building up momentum lately. Voters may not all get to see True Grit in time, and even though The Fighter supposedly played well with the HFPA, I have a feeling it won't be strong enough to break into the top five.
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
- ALICE IN WONDERLAND
- HOW DO YOU KNOW
- THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
- LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
- MADE IN DAGENHAM
Could Also See: Burlesque; Easy A
Commentary: The Kids Are All Right should have no problem earning a nomination (and a win) here. Basically everyone else will be nominated just to fill the five. I would love to drop the aforementioned Burton-Depp project, but Burlesque's comparisons to Showgirls isn't doing it any favors. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Easy A make the cut, but who do you drop?
- Jeff Bridges / TRUE GRIT
- Leonardo DiCaprio / SHUTTER ISLAND
- Jesse Eisenberg / THE SOCIAL NETWORK
- Colin Firth / THE KING'S SPEECH
- James Franco / 127 HOURS
Could Also See: Javier Bardem (BIUTIFUL); Robert Duvall (GET LOW); Aaron Eckhart (RABBIT HOLE); Ryan Gosling (BLUE VALENTINE)
Commentary: Firth is the frontrunner to win, and Franco is the spoiler, so they should be shoo-ins. I think Bridges would be nominated even if voters didn't watch their screeners, but I wouldn't be too surprised if he was replaced. I don't think anybody needs a bigger push here than Robert Duvall. An omission from the Spirit Awards really didn't help his case at all.
Actor (Musical or Comedy)
- Johnny Depp / ALICE IN WONDERLAND
- Paul Giamatti / BARNEY'S VERSION
- Jake Gyllenhaal / LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
- John C. Reilly / CYRUS
- Kevin Spacey / CASINO JACK
Could Also See: Ben Stiller (GREENBERG)
Commentary: Here's where I think Alice could potentially score a win. Depp is obviously well-liked by the HFPA, his film's box office numbers are a little too gigantic to ignore, and there isn't a frontrunner here. Hands down, this is the weakest category.
- Diane Lane / SECRETARIAT
- Nicole Kidman / RABBIT HOLE
- Jennifer Lawrence / WINTER'S BONE
- Lesley Manville / ANOTHER YEAR
- Natalie Portman / BLACK SWAN
Could Also See: Hilary Swank (CONVICTION); Michelle Williams (BLUE VALENTINE)
Commentary: I actually feel pretty confident about this list. The only question marks are Lane (Secretariat lost a lot of buzz after its opening weekend), and Lawrence (Winter's Bone is incredibly low budget, and that typically doesn't jive well with the HFPA).
Actress (Musical or Comedy)
- Annette Bening / THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
- Anne Hathaway / LOVE AND OTHER DRUGS
- Sally Hawkins / MADE IN DAGENHAM
- Julianne Moore / THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
- Emma Stone / EASY A
Could Also See: Gemma Arterton (TAMARA DREWE); Julia Roberts (EAT PRAY LOVE)
Commentary: Again, I think this list will hold up. Of course, Roberts could swoop in and make a (relatively) unexpected appearance like she did last year, but I wouldn't count on it.
- Christian Bale / THE FIGHTER
- Andrew Garfield / THE SOCIAL NETWORK
- Sam Rockwell / CONVICTION
- Mark Ruffalo / THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
- Geoffrey Rush / THE KING'S SPEECH
Could Also See: Jim Broadbent (ANOTHER YEAR); Ed Harris (THE WAY BACK); John Hawkes (WINTER'S BONE); Jeremy Renner (THE TOWN)
Commentary: This race has been a little difficult to pin down for basically the entire year. That being said, it does appear that we have a frontrunner in Bale, with Rush being the potential spoiler. Rockwell and Ruffalo are the most vulnerable, though I'd personally like to see either man nominated, if only for their respective bodies of work.
- Helena Bonham-Carter / THE KING'S SPEECH
- Melissa Leo / THE FIGHTER
- Miranda Richardson / MADE IN DAGENHAM
- Jacki Weaver / ANIMAL KINGDOM
- Dianne Wiest / RABBIT HOLE
Could Also See: Amy Adams (THE FIGHTER); Dale Dickey (WINTER'S BONE)
Commentary: Like the category above it, I don't think anyone (even this late in the game) can honestly predict the five ladies who will likely receive Oscar nominations. The difference here, however, is that there isn't really a clear frontrunner. The closest thing to one would probably be Weaver, but truthfully, any one of them could win.
- Darren Aronofsky / BLACK SWAN
- Danny Boyle / 127 HOURS
- Ethan & Joel Coen / TRUE GRIT
- David Fincher / THE SOCIAL NETWORK
- Christopher Nolan / INCEPTION
Could Also See: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (BIUTIFUL); Tom Hooper (THE KING'S SPEECH); David O. Russell (THE FIGHTER)
Commentary: I would say Aronofsky, Boyle and Fincher are locks, with Nolan being next in line. Again, True Grit's biggest drawback is its release date.
- ANOTHER YEAR (Mike Leigh)
- INCEPTION (Christopher Nolan)
- THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg)
- THE KING'S SPEECH (David Seidler)
- THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Aaron Sorkin)
Could Also See: 127 Hours; Black Swan; The Fighter; Rabbit Hole; True Grit
Commentary: In all honesty, it doesn't matter who else is nominated. There's no reason for why Sorkin should lose.
Foreign Language Film
- BIUTIFUL - Mexico
- I AM LOVE - Italy
- INCENDIES - Canada
- OF GODS AND MEN - France
- UNCLE BOONME WHO CAN RECALL HIS PAST LIVES - Thailand
Could Also See: Dogtooth; In A Better World; Life, Above All; Outside the Law; When We Leave
Commentary: I have not seen one foreign film all year, so this is total blind-guessing. Nevertheless, I feel pretty good about three films' odds (Biutiful, I Am Love and Of Gods and Men). Uncle Boonme got some great buzz from Cannes, but I'm not as sure of its chances.
Animated Feature Film
- DESPICABLE ME
- HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
- THE ILLUSIONIST
- TOY STORY 3
Could Also See: Legend of the Guardians; Megamind; Shrek Forever After
Commentary: Not much suggests a different lineup, although I've heard a lot of reviewers express disappointment over The Illusionist. If anything's out, that film probably is, but given the other possibilities, it will likely make the list.
- 127 HOURS (A.R. Rahman)
- HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON (John Powell)
- INCEPTION (Hans Zimmer)
- THE KING'S SPEECH (Alexandre Desplat)
- NEVER LET ME GO (Rachel Portman)
Could Also See: Black Swan; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part I; Robin Hood
Commentary: This is typically one of the hardest categories to predict. All of the listed five seem like good bets to me. Alexandre Desplat is no stranger to the Globes, so whether it's for The King's Speech or Harry Potter, he's probably looking at least one nomination. Not sure who the actual frontrunner would be at this point.
- 127 Hours, "If I Rise"
- BURLESQUE, "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me"
- TANGLED, "I See the Light"
- TOY STORY 3, "We Belong Together"
- WAITING FOR 'SUPERMAN,' "Shine"
Could Also See: Country Strong ("Country Strong"); Eat Pray Love ("Better Days"); Tangled ("Mother Knows Best")
Commentary: The best song Oscar nominees will become clearer once the official list of eligible and submitted songs is released. For now, this looks about right.
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