Golden Globes 2010: Predicting the Nominees
On Tuesday, December 15, the nominees will be announced for the Golden Globe awards. I'm never up-to-date with television, and there's way too many shows to watch, so I won't even bother with those nominees. Instead, I'll focus on who I think will get nominated in the motion picture categories, which is what the awards show is really about anyway.
Best Picture (Drama)
- Bright Star
- Education, An
- Up in the Air
Seeing as how this is the Hollywood Foreign Press, Bright Star should stand a good chance of making the shortlist. It really needs a nomination here, because its buzz and good reviews are all but forgotten.
An Education seems like a safe bet, helped a great deal by Carey Mulligan's much buzzed about performance. Invictus has Eastwood at the helm, which is probably reason enough to see it make the list.
And Precious and Up in the Air are the frontrunners to win the big prize at the Oscars.
Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
- (500) Days of Summer
- In the Loop
- Julie & Julia
- Serious Man, A
(500) Days of Summer has the reviews it needs to sustain a nomination. Many feel that The Hangover or It's Complicated will be nominated here, but I've heard nothing but good things about In the Loop, and I think a smart British comedy will be too good for the HFP to pass on.
Meryl Streep alone garnered Mamma Mia! a nomination last year, and I think she'll do it again for Julie & Julia. Musicals are always highly favored at the Globes, in terms of nominations and wins, and Nine has too much going for it (A-list cast, great musical director, big expectations) for it not to be nominated.
A Serious Man seems like the only other logical choice. Great reviews to its credit, and the Coens aren't exactly shunned here.
- Jeff Bridges Crazy Heart
- George Clooney Up in the Air
- Colin Firth A Single Man
- Morgan Freeman Invictus
- Viggo Mortensen The Road
Bridges is getting a lot "career-best" praise, and from the look of the trailer, it seems like he should be a shoo-in. Clooney seems to always be nominated in some form or fashion nowaways, and as great as his movie apparently is, he was getting good ink months before most people even saw it.
Firth has been on the radar for the last few months, and his momentum only seems to be growing. Freeman's playing a well-known, well-liked historical figure in an Eastwood picture. He's in. Mortensen's the only real wild card here, but I don't see anyone else threatening to take his spot.
Actor (Musical or Comedy)
- Alec Baldwin It's Complicated
- Sacha Baron Cohen Bruno
- Matt Damon The Informant!
- Daniel Day-Lewis Nine
- Robert Downey, Jr. Sherlock Holmes
Not quite sure if Baldwin will go lead in the comedy category, or just supporting. The latter is a little bit crowded, and considering how early word is he steals the show, he should be a good bet if he settles here. Cohen got nominated for playing Borat, and even though everyone seems to agree Bruno wasn't as good or funny, I still think he's probably getting nominated.
I don't think Damon will get nominated for Invictus, but he seems like a shoo-in for The Informant!. Daniel Day-Lewis is Daniel Day-Lewis. No further explanation is required. And Downey has been on a hot streak as of late, and this seems like the kind of role he'll be able to really get into.
- Abbie Cornish Bright Star
- Penelope Cruz Broken Embraces
- Helen Mirren The Last Station
- Carey Mulligan An Education
- Gabourney Sidibe Precious
I have no idea why Cornish's buzz is essentially nonexistent right now. She was great in Bright Star, and a nomination here could put her right back in the game. I'm torn between Cruz and Sandra Bullock, considering how The Blind Side is performing right now, but I'm going with the former.
Between the Oscars, the Emmys and the Globes, Helen Mirren is always being nominated for something. The trailer leads me to believe she'll get both Globe and Oscar recognition yet again. It's no secret that Mulligan and Sidibe are the frontrunners for Actress right now, so both should score easy nods here.
Actress (Musical or Comedy)
- Sandra Bullock The Proposal
- Marion Cotillard Nine
- Zooey Deschanel (500) Days of Summer
- Michelle Pfeiffer Cheri
- Meryl Streep Julie & Julia
Bullock has a chance of getting 2 nominations, but even if she doesn't, she should be a safe bet in this category. Cotillard is getting some of the best buzz for her performance in Nine, and Deschanel should make the shortlist due to a weak roster of competitors (and she's good, too).
This would have to be Streep's to lose, which I doubt she will. No one else is picking Michelle Pfeiffer from what I can see, but there doesn't seem to be anyone else to include. Amy Adams got bad marks for Julie & Julia, I don't think enough voters would think to go for Ellen Page in Whip It, and even though Streep could possibly get 2 nominations in the same category, I'm hesitant to predict that.
Plus, I like Michelle Pfeiffer, so there's that.
- Christian McKay Me and Orson Welles
- Alfred Molina An Education
- Christopher Plummer The Last Station
- Stanley Tucci Julie & Julia
- Christoph Waltz Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson is actually getting a lot of buzz and a few accolades (including a win from the National Board of Review) for his performance in The Messenger, but I think the film may be a little too indepedent for the Globes, who like big names and big films.
McKay has been building momentum in the passed few months for playing Orson Welles, and I think the word is too good for him to lose a nomination. Molina was the comic relief in An Education, and he's overdue for some recognition. Plummer looks to be good in The Last Station, and he's overdue as well.
A few months ago, I would have sworn that Stanley Tucci was guaranteed a nomination for The Lovely Bones. But word on the street is that the film's mediocre, and since Julie & Julia is very much in the game, I think he'll earn a nomination for that one instead.
It's not even a question of if Waltz will be nominated. The question is will he win here and at the Oscars, and I think the answer is "yes" for both.
- Penelope Cruz Nine
- Judi Dench Nine
- Anna Kendrick Up in the Air
- Mo'Nique Precious
- Julianne Moore A Single Man
No one has gotten better notices for their performance in Nine than Cruz, so she should be a lock at this point. I haven't heard much about Dench, but judging from the trailer, it seems like she might have a shot.
Vera Farmiga has gotten good reviews for what she did in Up in the Air, but I'm hearing the most buzz about Clooney and Kendrick. Moore has earned just as much praise in A Single Man as Firth.
And Mo'Nique should have this thing in the bag.
- Kathryn Bigelow The Hurt Locker
- James Cameron Avatar
- Clint Eastwood Invictus
- Rob Marshall Nine
- Jason Reitman Up in the Air
There is the distinct possibility that 3 women could be nominated (Bigelow, Jane Campion and Lone Scherfig). But just in case only one makes the cut, which I think is how this will play out, Bigelow is first on the list. Her film really should get several nominations, but the Globes are flaky that way.
The Cameron prediction is kind of out of left field, but it reminds me of when King Kong had a lot of big expectations, and Peter Jackson got nominated for directing. I think the same thing will happen here.
Eastwood will probably carry his NBR-winning momentum with him, and Marshall and Reitman directed two of the most anticipated films of the year for their respective categories. Both should make the list easily.
- (500) Days of Summer
- Education, An
- Serious Man, A
- Up in the Air
This one's always tricky. Sometimes the original scripts are better represented, other times, the adaptations. I think the interesting relationship outlook helps Summer, and I think the fact the Coens have their names on A Serious Man will be reason enough for voters to nominate it.
Invictus is probably going to see a lot of nominations, so it makes sense for it to hit all the majors. An Education is based on a book by a well-known author, and it seems likely to get nominated here. Precious should make the list, but I have a feeling it will be passed over (along with its director).
Up in the Air is locked and loaded.
- Bright Star
- Christmas Carol, A
- Coco Before Chanel
- Where the Wild Things Are
This is essentially always a blind guessing game, even if you've heard the scores (and I have for most of these). Bright Star had the best piece of music I've heard so far, and Up was a close second.
A Christmas Carol, Coco Before Chanel and Where the Wild Things Are all seem, no pun intended, like wild card choices. But the best I can do to articulate my reasoning is to say that, to me, these feel like scores the voters would go for, so there you go.
- "All is Love," Where the Wild Things Are
- "Almost There," The Princess and the Frog
- "Cinema Italiano," Nine
- "I Can See in Color," Precious
- "Weary Kind, The," Crazy Heart
As hard as it is to accurately predict the Globes' score nominees, the song selections may be even harder. The Princess and the Frog is bound to have several of its original pieces nominated at the Oscars, but I think the Globes will just pick one.
The song from Where the Wild Things Are is probably catchy enough to make the list, Nine's status as a musical probably helps it a bit and Crazy Heart is a film about a singer, so you would assume a song would get nominated.
I think Precious could find its way in, too, but I wouldn't be surprised if something more obscure or annoying (like a Miley Cyrus song) showed up in its place.
Animated Feature Film
- Christmas Carol, A
- Fantastic Mr. Fox
- Princess and the Frog, The
Aside from the fact that I'm sure it will be terrible, why is the sequel to Alvin and the Chipmunks even eligible as an animated feature film?
Anyway, I think the Globes will more or less match up with the Oscars, except A Christmas Carol will likely be replaced by Ponyo. The Globes could also go for Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, but I'd bet on Robert Zemeckis' film, if for nothing else, it's good-looking animation.
Foreign Language Film
- Mother (KOREA)
- Prophet, A (FRANCE)
- Silent Army (THE NETHERLANDS)
- White Ribbon, The (GERMANY)
- White Wedding (SOUTH AFRICA)
Here, the Globes typically nominate the most popular foreign films, whether or not they're considered to be technically foreign or not (i.e. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Letters from Iwo Jima).
Based on popularity and reviews, A Prophet and The White Ribbon should be easy nominees. I've heard of Mother, but not in detail. Silent Army and White Wedding are blind guesses I chose because I liked the sound of both titles.
Despite what happens, whether the movies that deserve to win do, or they end up getting snubbed, one thing about this year's ceremony will make it worth watching anyway: Ricky Gervais is hosting.
More by this Author
On June 23rd, TIME movie critic Richard Corliss published an article detailing what he felt to be the twenty-five best animated films ever made. His piece can be read here. It's an interesting compilation. While he...
Want to know what it's like to be an extra on a Tyler Perry movie? I document my experience here.
Agree with film critic Roger Ebert's best posters of the decade? I sure didn't. Here I lay out my personal picks. . .