Golden Globes 2010: Predicting the Winners (UPDATED: How I Did & Analysis)

The Globes are next Sunday, January 17, on NBC. The day before, the Critics Choice Awards pick their winners, so between the two days next weekend, we should have a pretty good idea of who's gaining a lot of Oscar momentum, and who's losing some.

Going into the show, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious and Up in the Air are the frontrunners, fresh off their Directors Guild of America (DGA) nominations. Air has the most Globe nominations (6), so you could argue that it's the frontrunner amongst the frontrunners.

However, the Globes don't necessarily shower the film with the most nominations with the most awards (though, truthfully, that does help a lot). And sometimes, when a movie has struggled to garner mentions from other key awards events (i.e. Atonement in 2007), that film can suddenly find itself back in the race if it wins here.

So, here is how I think things will go down come Sunday night. . .

UPDATE: Ricky Gervais was a good host, albeit one that barely did any hosting. The bits about Colin Farrell and Mel Gibson were the best parts. Also, I have now not won a family awards ballot contest in a while. My dad won the Emmys and the Oscars, and my little brother just won (by a single point) for this year's Globes. It seems my teachings have had an effect. That, or they just all know how to read the charts I give them.

MOTION PICTURE (Drama): "Up in the Air"
MOTION PICTURE (Drama): "Up in the Air"

MOTION PICTURE (Drama)

  • AVATAR
  • THE HURT LOCKER
  • INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS
  • PRECIOUS
  • UP IN THE AIR*

While I would argue that the two films most deserving of the win are either The Hurt Locker or Precious, the irony is that I think both are very unlikely to win. Avatar's box office numbers will probably be hard to ignore, Inglourious supposedly wowed the Hollywood Foreign Press, and Air, as I said before, has the most nods. Because it leads the competition, and also because I don't think it will win anywhere else, I'm guessing that Up in the Air will win.

ACTUAL WINNER: Avatar. You could tell by the way the evening was going that this was probably going to happen. There wasn't nearly as much love for "Inglourious" as there was at the Critics Choice, and the love for "Up in the Air" seemed to have vanished after it won Screenplay. Needless to say, there was ZERO love for "The Hurt Locker." Heading into the Oscar nominations, "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker" have the most momentum, with the former now picking up even more.

MOTION PICTURE (Musical or Comedy): "Nine"
MOTION PICTURE (Musical or Comedy): "Nine"

MOTION PICTURE (Musical or Comedy)

  • (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
  • THE HANGOVER
  • IT'S COMPLICATED
  • JULIE & JULIA
  • NINE*

The musical/comedy category is kind of hard to pin down this year in a lot of categories, including Picture. Not really sure why A Serious Man was snubbed, but that would have gotten my vote. Given the options, I would say it makes the most sense for (500) Days of Summer to win, but I don't think it will. Even though it's been marred by bad reviews, I think Nine will still end up winning for two main reasons: (1) it leads the others with 5 nominations, and (2) it's a musical, a genre the Hollywood Foreign Press loves. Not to mention, it has a lot of stars, which is what the Globes are really all about.

ACTUAL WINNER: The Hangover. This seemed like a category that could go to anybody, and it actually did. I'm not sure if anyone predicted this. I guess it's better than "Nine" winning, considering all its negative reviews (and losing here should really kill its chances at the Academy Awards). Still, I think this movie was extremely overrated, so I'm not entirely thrilled by the surprise win. In my opinion, this should have gone to "(500) Days of Summer." No question.

ACTOR (Drama): Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
ACTOR (Drama): Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"

ACTOR (Drama)

  • Jeff Bridges CRAZY HEART*
  • George Clooney UP IN THE AIR
  • Colin Firth A SINGLE MAN
  • Morgan Freeman INVICTUS
  • Tobey Maguire BROTHERS

It's between Bridges and Clooney. The feeling, right now, is that the former is long overdue for an Oscar, and seeing as how George already has his, I think Jeff has the slight edge. Bridges could really start to build momentum for an Academy Award if he won here.

ACTUAL WINNER: Jeff Bridges. He looks well on his way to winning, after all these years, his first Academy Award. I'm looking forward to it.

ACTOR (Musical or Comedy): Robert Downey, Jr., "Sherlock Holmes"
ACTOR (Musical or Comedy): Robert Downey, Jr., "Sherlock Holmes"

ACTOR (Musical or Comedy)

  • Matt Damon THE INFORMANT!
  • Daniel Day-Lewis NINE
  • Robert Downey, Jr. SHERLOCK HOLMES*
  • Joseph Gordon-Levitt (500) DAYS OF SUMMER
  • Michael Stuhlbarg A SERIOUS MAN

Damon's got 2 nominations, but I think Downey will win this. He was nominated just last year, and if not for Ledger, he might have even won. With the opportunity to reward this year, I don't think the HFP will pass him up this time.

ACTUAL WINNER: Robert Downey, Jr. I was pretty sure that, for whatever reason, Sally Hawkins was going to say Michael Stuhlbarg. I wasn't really pulling for anybody too much, but Downey's speech made me glad I picked him.

ACTRESS (Drama): Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
ACTRESS (Drama): Carey Mulligan, "An Education"

ACTRESS (Drama)

  • Emily Blunt THE YOUNG VICTORIA
  • Sandra Bullock THE BLIND SIDE
  • Helen Mirren THE LAST STATION
  • Carey Mulligan AN EDUCATION*
  • Gabourey Sidibe PRECIOUS

I don't really understand why so many people think Sandra Bullock will win. I guess the box office numbers and double nominations are a contributing factor, but Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe have been Best Actress frontrunners for practically the entire year. It's a tough call, but I think Mulligan will win.

ACTUAL WINNER: Sandra Bullock. Well, I guess all those people predicting a Bullock-Streep contest knew what they were talking about. After winning at the Critics Choice and here, not only is she officially guaranteed an Oscar nomination, she might even win at this point. She's got the momentum, the box office numbers, and a lot of people in Hollywood like her. I guess the feeling is Gabby and Carey have plenty of time to win again. And, as Bullock put it herself, how often does she do a movie that could garner Oscar nominations?

ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy): Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"
ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy): Meryl Streep, "Julie & Julia"

ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy)

  • Sandra Bullock THE PROPOSAL
  • Marion Cotillard NINE
  • Julia Roberts DUPLICITY
  • Meryl Streep IT'S COMPLICATED
  • Meryl Streep JULIE & JULIA*

Was Julia Roberts really more deserving of a nomination than Zooey Deschanel? Really? Anyway, it would be pretty earth-shattering if Meryl Streep didn't win. I suppose Bullock could win here, but I seriously, seriously doubt it.

ACTUAL WINNER: Meryl Streep (J&J). Easy, easy call. Looks like it really is between her and Bullock. Who would have ever thought they'd hear themselves saying that before now?

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Matt Damon INVICTUS
  • Woody Harrelson THE MESSENGER
  • Christopher Plummer THE LAST STATION
  • Stanley Tucci THE LOVELY BONES
  • Christoph Waltz INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS*

Except for maybe Damon, I do think these men will be the Oscar nominees as well. I wouldn't really mind seeing Woody win. He was fantastic in The Messenger, but Waltz should and will win. There were a lot of good things in Inglourious Basterds, but he was the best part.

ACTUAL WINNER: Christoph Waltz. So here's the thing: everyone, including Waltz, knows he's going to win the Oscar. In fact, he's tailoring every speech to whichever ceremony he's at. For instance, at the Critics Choice, he said something about being the right choice, then was thankful he got the Critics Choice award. At the Globes, he talked about constellations, and how it somehow made his globe "golden." Expect him to say something about watching Sesame Street, looking up to Oscar the Grouch, and then somehow tying that into his winning an Oscar.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, "Precious"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, "Precious"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Penelope Cruz NINE
  • Vera Farmiga UP IN THE AIR
  • Anna Kendrick UP IN THE AIR
  • Mo'Nique PRECIOUS*
  • Julianne Moore A SINGLE MAN

Unless something unexpected or unfortunate happens, this should be one of the easiest races to call. Mo'Nique has gotten great ink since Sundance (almost a full year ago), and as good as her fellow nominees are, none of them comes close to being anywhere near as good as she is.

ACTUAL WINNER: Mo'Nique. She, like Waltz, is all but assured an Oscar victory, and she, like Waltz, deserves it. Making speeches that convey her genuine gratefulness and gracefulness don't hurt either. What's that you hear? It's the sound of Jeff Wells running out of excuses for why she shouldn't win.

DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"

DIRECTOR

  • Kathryn Bigelow THE HURT LOCKER*
  • James Cameron AVATAR
  • Clint Eastwood INVICTUS
  • Jason Reitman UP IN THE AIR
  • Quentin Tarantino INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

I could see Tarantino or Reitman winning, depending on just how much their films were loved by the voters. But Bigelow's been the frontrunner for a while, she's won a lot of awards in the last few weeks and, frankly, she deserves it the most.

ACTUAL WINNER: James Cameron. Even Cameron conceded that Bigelow deserved to win. Look, I liked "Avatar." I had a good time watching it. But to say it was both a better film and incorporated better direction than some of its competition is pushing it. Nontheless, its box office numbers, collection of Critics Choice wins, and its two big wins at the Globes showcase that this is a force to be reckoned with.

SCREENPLAY: Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
SCREENPLAY: Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"

SCREENPLAY

  • DISTRICT 9 / Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell
  • THE HURT LOCKER / Mark Boal
  • INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS / Quentin Tarantino*
  • IT'S COMPLICATED / Nancy Meyers
  • UP IN THE AIR / Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner

Statistically speaking, this should probably go to Up in the Air. Since 2000, adapted screenplays have won 9 out of 11 times. But I have a hunch Basterds will take it. The script makes use of several different languages, which should play out well with the HFP.

ACTUAL WINNER: Up in the Air. I even had the adapted screenplay facts in front of me, and I blew this one. I was so sure the Hollywood Foreign Press would eat up "Inglourious." Guess not. Reitman and Turner better have their speeches ready for when this wins Adapted Screenplay, because it's definitely happening.

ORIGINAL SONG: The Weary Kind, "Crazy Heart"
ORIGINAL SONG: The Weary Kind, "Crazy Heart"

ORIGINAL SONG

  • AVATAR - "I See You"
  • BROTHERS - "Winter"
  • CRAZY HEART - "The Weary Kind"*
  • EVERYBODY'S FINE - "(I Want To) Come Home"
  • NINE - "Cinema Italiano"

One thing I will say the Globes do well is rewarding the actual best original songs, even, at times, when the Oscars fail to (i.e. Jai Ho over The Wrestler, which wasn't even nominated). With that in mind, "The Weary Kind" should win this easily.

ACTUAL WINNER: Crazy Heart. The best song won, and it will at the Oscars, too. This should be a done deal.

ORIGINAL SCORE: James Horner, "Avatar"
ORIGINAL SCORE: James Horner, "Avatar"

ORIGINAL SCORE

  • AVATAR / James Horner*
  • THE INFORMANT! / Marvin Hamlisch
  • A SINGLE MAN / Abel Korzeniowski
  • UP / Michael Giacchino
  • WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE / Carter Burwell

I'd be find with either A Single Man, Up or Where the Wild Things Are winning. But I think the most unimpressive score here, Avatar, will win, helped in part by the film's momentum, which, as box office numbers suggest, is not slowing down anytime soon. Plus, it has to win somewhere.

ACTUAL WINNER: Up. I'm just glad neither "Avatar" nor "The Informant!" won, though I liked the music from "A Single Man" and "Where the Wild Things Are" the most. Giacchino deserves to win, not just because his score's good, but because he's composed some fine music over the years. Just one last award to claim now. . .

ANIMATED FILM: "Up"
ANIMATED FILM: "Up"

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS
  • CORALINE
  • FANTASTIC MR. FOX
  • THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG
  • UP*

Easiest category of the night. Heads: it's Up. Tails: it's Up. No coin: it's Up.

ACTUAL WINNER: Up. It might as well not even have any competition. When was the last time an animated film won the Oscar that wasn't a sure bet? "Happy Feet" maybe?

FOREIGN FILM: "The White Ribbon"
FOREIGN FILM: "The White Ribbon"

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • BAARIA (Italy)
  • BROKEN EMBRACES (Spain)
  • THE MAID (Chile)
  • A PROPHET (France)
  • THE WHITE RIBBON (Germany)*

I guess this could go to Broken Embraces, but The White Ribbon has been the frontrunner for a long, long time now. And this usually goes to the foreign film with the most buzz.

ACTUAL WINNER: The White Ribbon. Unless the Academy messes up their eligibility for foreign film entries (and they have before), this film should be well on its way to repeating come March.

 

And now, on to television. . .

TELEVISION SERIES (Drama): "Mad Men"
TELEVISION SERIES (Drama): "Mad Men"

TELEVISION SERIES (Drama)

  • BIG LOVE
  • DEXTER
  • HOUSE, M.D.
  • MAD MEN*
  • TRUE BLOOD

Glad to see Big Love showing up here, as well as True Blood, though House has been very mediocre lately. I would love it if Dexter won, a show that only seems to get better as it goes on, but I think we all know which series is going home with the trophy.

ACTUAL WINNER: Mad Men. For a moment, it seemed like maybe Dexter would go a deserving 3 for 3. I wish it had. I like this show, but it's overrated. And why wasn't "Breaking Bad" even nominated?

TELEVISION SERIES (Musical or Comedy): "Modern Family"
TELEVISION SERIES (Musical or Comedy): "Modern Family"

TELEVISION SERIES (Musical or Comedy)

  • 30 ROCK
  • ENTOURAGE
  • GLEE
  • MODERN FAMILY*
  • THE OFFICE

I could see 30 Rock winning this again, but the Globes have a sort of unspoken rule when it comes to their television nominees: if it's new, it wins. With that, I'd say it's between Glee and Modern Family. The former has the most nominations, but the latter is much funnier, and it's a better show all around, so I'd give it the edge.

ACTUAL WINNER: Glee. Seems like everyone predicted this, and I should have, but I'm partial to "Modern Family," a show that I've always found to be funny, versus "Glee," which is funny most of the time. Oh well. I didn't really mind who won, so long as it was one of the newbies.

MINISERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE: "Grey Gardens"
MINISERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE: "Grey Gardens"

MINISERIES OR MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE

  • GEORGIA O'KEEFE
  • GREY GARDENS*
  • INTO THE STORM
  • LITTLE DORRIT
  • TAKING CHANCE

This is Gardens' to lose.

ACTUAL WINNER: Grey Gardens. Yawn. Where's the actual best miniseries ("Generation Kill")?

ACTOR (Television Drama): Simon Baker, "The Mentalist"
ACTOR (Television Drama): Simon Baker, "The Mentalist"

ACTOR (Television Drama)

  • Simon Baker THE MENTALIST*
  • Michael C. Hall DEXTER
  • Jon Hamm MAD MEN
  • Hugh Laurie HOUSE, M.D.
  • Bill Paxton BIG LOVE

He's the young Australian actor on a hot new crime show. I'd say Simon Baker's chances are pretty good.

ACTUAL WINNER: Michael C. Hall. Probably the happiest I was all night to see somebody win. Healthy or not, he deserved to win. Now all the Globes need to do is eventually wise up and reward the show in the Television Drama spot.

ACTOR (Television Comedy): Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
ACTOR (Television Comedy): Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"

ACTOR (Musical or Comedy)

  • Alec Baldwin 30 ROCK*
  • Steve Carell THE OFFICE
  • David Duchovny CALIFORNICATION
  • Thomas Jane HUNG
  • Matthew Morrison GLEE

He's already won Globes and Emmys in the past, but I just don't see any of Alec Baldwin's competitors taking the award away from him.

ACTUAL WINNER: Alec Baldwin. You could have called this one in your sleep.

ACTOR (Miniseries or Movie): Brendan Gleeson, "Into the Storm"
ACTOR (Miniseries or Movie): Brendan Gleeson, "Into the Storm"

ACTOR (Miniseries or Movie)

  • Kevin Bacon TAKING CHANCE
  • Kenneth Branagh WALLANDER
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor ENDGAME
  • Brendan Gleeson INTO THE STORM*
  • Jeremy Irons GEORGIA O'KEEFE

Just as was the case with the Emmys, I wouldn't mind if either Kevin Bacon or Brendan Gleeson won, though it helps that the latter actually did win, and that could carry over here.

ACTUAL WINNER: Kevin Bacon. I've always loved Kevin Bacon, so this was nice to see. I was this close to picking him, but the fresh Emmy win for Gleeson was hard to ignore. Best of both worlds, though: each man won at separate events. I can definitely live with that.

ACTRESS (Television Drama): Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
ACTRESS (Television Drama): Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"

ACTRESS (Drama)

  • Glenn Close DAMAGES
  • January Jones MAD MEN
  • Julianna Margulies THE GOOD WIFE*
  • Anna Paquin TRUE BLOOD
  • Kyra Sedgewick THE CLOSER

I don't think any woman has better television material than Glenn Close, and she really knows how to use it. But Julianna Margulies is in a well-received brand new show, and I think that will be enough for her to win.

ACTUAL WINNER: Julianna Margulies. Being a fresh face (well, in a fresh show, anyway) is probably the only thing that kept Glenn Close from repeating.

ACTRESS (Television Comedy): Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"
ACTRESS (Television Comedy): Edie Falco, "Nurse Jackie"

ACTRESS (Musical or Comedy)

  • Toni Collette THE UNITED STATES OF TARA
  • Courteney Cox COUGAR TOWN
  • Edie Falco NURSE JACKIE*
  • Tina Fey 30 ROCK
  • Lea Michele GLEE

This should be in the bag for Edie Falco.

ACTUAL WINNER: Toni Collette. There were 3 wins that were almost kind of shocking. This was one of them. Seemed like Falco was poised to win this (she even looked surprise). I guess Collette's multiple personas were too good to resist.

ACTRESS (Miniseries or Movie): Drew Barrymore, "Grey Gardens"
ACTRESS (Miniseries or Movie): Drew Barrymore, "Grey Gardens"

ACTRESS (Miniseries or Movie)

  • Joan Allen GEORGIA O'KEEFE
  • Drew Barrymore GREY GARDENS*
  • Jessica Lange GREY GARDENS
  • Anna Paquin THE COURAGEOUS HEART OF IRENA SENDLER
  • Sigourney Weaver PRAYERS FOR BOBBY

Even though her co-star won the Emmy, I have a feeling the Globes will go for Drew Barrymore over Jessica Lange.

ACTUAL WINNER: Drew Barrymore. Like Bacon and Gleeson, the best of both worlds: Lange wins at the Emmys, Barrymore at the Globes. Fine by me.

SUPPORTING ACTOR (Television): John Lithgow, "Dexter"
SUPPORTING ACTOR (Television): John Lithgow, "Dexter"

SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Michael Emerson LOST
  • Neil Patrick Harris HOW I MET YOUR MOTHER
  • William Hurt DAMAGES
  • John Lithgow DEXTER*
  • Jeremy Piven ENTOURAGE

I've only heard great, great things about John Lithgow in Dexter. Neil Patrick Harris is the only other person I see possibly winning, but even he doesn't seem like an immediate threat.

ACTUAL WINNER: John Lithgow. I always enjoy seeing him in anything, and it's rare that he ever turns in a performance that isn't deserving of some kind of recognition. I'm not caught up on "Dexter" yet, but even on paper, this just sounded like a perfect match.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Television): Jane Lynch, "Glee"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS (Television): Jane Lynch, "Glee"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Jane Adams HUNG
  • Rose Byrne DAMAGES
  • Jane Lynch GLEE*
  • Janet McTeer INTO THE STORM
  • Chloe Sevigny BIG LOVE

This is the one category in television that should be a complete no-brainer. Jane Lynch is the best thing about Glee. Period.

ACTUAL WINNER: Chloe Sevigny. Probably the biggest surprise of the night. I haven't seen the latest season of "Big Love," so I can't really judge (and I've liked what I've seen so far). But it's just hard for me to imagine anyone topping Sue Sylvester.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Michael C. Hall wining for "Dexter"

  • Mo'Nique winning for "Precious"

  • Ricky Gervais' joke about Mel Gibson's alcoholism

  • John Lithgow winning for "Dexter"

  • Kevin Bacon winning for "Taking Chance"

  • Jeff Bridges winning for "Crazy Heart"

  • Robert Downey, Jr.'s speech

  • Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro honoring Martin Scorsese (who may or may not have an intimiate relationship with film restoration)

  • "Up" winning score

LOWLIGHTS

  • "The Hurt Locker" = SHUT. OUT.

  • Jane Lynch snubbed for "Glee"

  • "Avatar" winning Picture & Director (over "Locker" and "Inglourious Basterds")

  • Neither Carey Mulligan nor Gabby Sidibe wins for Drama Actress

  • "Up in the Air" wins Screenplay over "Inglourious"

  • Edie Falco loses to Toni Collette

JUST. . .REALLY?

  • "The Hangover" wins Comedy Picture over "(500) Days of Summer"

 

 

 

 

Predicted Winners Tally:

CRAZY HEART - 2 (2)

GREY GARDENS - 2 (2)

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS - 2 (1)

30 ROCK - 1 (1)

AVATAR - 1 (2)

DEXTER - 1 (2)

AN EDUCATION - 1 (none)

GLEE - 1 (1)

THE GOOD WIFE - 1 (1)

THE HURT LOCKER - 1 (none)

INTO THE STORM - 1 (none)

JULIE & JULIA - 1 (1)

MAD MEN - 1 (1)

THE MENTALIST - 1 (none)

MODERN FAMILY - 1 (none)

NINE - 1 (none)

NURSE JACKIE - 1 (none)

PRECIOUS - 1 (1)

SHERLOCK HOLMES - 1 (1)

UP - 1 (2)

UP IN THE AIR - 1 (1)

THE WHITE RIBBON - 1 (1)

 

TOTAL: 14 out of 25 (56%)

[Film: 9 out of 14 / 64%]

[Television: 6 out of 11 / 55%]

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