Month-in-Advance Emmy Predictions 2010 (Part 3 of 3 - The Movies & Miniseries)
And to wrap up my month-in-advance predictions, I'm looking at 8 categories in the made for television/miniseries areas.
Just to preface this: I haven't seen the majority of the films. I don't have HBO anymore, which means I can't watch about 95% of the eligible entries, so there's that. I will be seeing You Don't Know Jack pretty soon, but as of today, I've only seen The Special Relationship and bits of The Pacific.
Still, it shouldn't make the predictions totally irrelevant. I mean, that's what most of this is: following the buzz, both for this, and the comedy and drama picks, too. But I didn't approach this completely unprepared: I checked out all the trailers (or at least the ones you can see online), and that kind of gives you some idea of where to go.
Plus, even though getting the nominees 100% right might not be doable, guessing who's going to win is pretty easy. But that won't really mean as much until August.
Anyway, let's close this on up. . .
MADE FOR TELEVISION MOVIE
- GEORGIA O'KEEFE
- THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP
- TEMPLE GRANDIN
- WHEN LOVE IS NOT ENOUGH: THE LOIS WILSON STORY
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK
Reasoning: Three of these are complete locks: The Special Relationship, Temple Grandin and You Don't Know Jack, which is the clear frontrunner. I could see Georgia O'Keefe getting snubbed, but I'm pretty sure it won't, so four of these slots are pretty much filled.
When I was looking into the list of eligible films, I didn't think When Love is Not Enough,a Lifetime original movie starring Winona Ryder, would be much of a threat. But the trailer looks promising, the reviews are better than I expected, and now that The Diary of Anne Frank has been deemed ineligible, it opens the door for other movies.
A few films that looked like worthy opponents, based off their trailers and/or word-of-mouth: Capturing Mary, Einstein and Eddington and Moonshot.
- THE PACIFIC
I think this will be made up of the exact same kind of nominees as last year, meaning you'll have one thing covering a war (Generation Kill / The Pacific), and one British costume drama (Little Dorrit / Emma, or Return to Cranford). One thing that's going to be different: the war miniseries will win this time around.
Emma and Cranford are pretty much neck-and-neck when it comes to the reviews. There isn't a whole lot to distinguish them, except that the former really depends on how good Romola Garai is, and the latter is an ensemble piece. It could go either way, but I flipped a coin, and it tipped in Emma's favor, twice, so that's what I'm sticking with.
Only five miniseries were eligible here, with The Pacific being the only sure-fire nominee. Of course, anything could happen, but I think both Alice and The Prisoner will be seen as a little too experimental. After all, whether it's the Emmys or the Oscars, science fiction rarely works in anybody's favor.
LEAD ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
- ENDGAME (William Hurt)
- GEORGIA O'KEEFE (Jeremy Irons)
- THE PRISONER (Ian McKellen)
- THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP (Dennis Quaid)
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (Al Pacino)
Jeremy Irons and Dennis Quaid are safe bets, I think. The former seems to scream a lot (which always helps, even if you're sporting a ridiculous-looking mustache) and the latter was a lot of fun to watch as Bill Clinton, even if he wasn't a complete dead ringer. I think under different circumstances, Ian McKellen would have this thing won, but just like he did with Angels in America, Al Pacino landed a role that has "Give me the trophy" written all over it. Whenever he's attached to a television movie, the race is already over.
For the remaining spot, it's kind of anyone's game, but I'm going with William Hurt based mostly on the fact that he's William Hurt, and as a result, it's very unlikely he didn't deliver in the role.
Jeff Bridges (A Dog Year) is coming off a recent Oscar win, but that may not mean much in the television field; Andy Serkis (Einstein and Eddington) is playing a well-known historical figure, though the role doesn't look all that flashy; Chiwetel Ejiofor (Endgame) never disappoints but may be overshadowed by his co-star; Michael Gambon (Joe's Palace) looks good in the role but has a better shot in another field; Barry Pepper (When Love is Not Enough) could get nominated, but I only think that would happen if Winona was recognized, too, and I'm not expecting that idea to come to fruition.
While no actor was singled out from Band of Brothers or Generation Kill, there is a chance one of the three leads from The Pacific (James Badge Dale, Joe Mazzello, Jon Seda) could bunk the trend. I think the odds are in Dale's favor, but as you can see, he's got a lot of competition, both from and outside his own series.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
- CAPTURING MARY (Maggie Smith)
- GEORGIA O'KEEFE (Joan Allen)
- RETURN TO CRANFORD (Judi Dench)
- THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP (Hope Davis)
- TEMPLE GRANDIN (Claire Danes)
No way Claire Danes isn't winning. Were she out of the picture, I think Joan Allen would be next in line. Judi Dench was nominated for the original Cranford, and I don't see any reason to believe that history wouldn't repeat herself. With Anne Frank's Ellie Kendrick no longer eligible, Maggie Smith joins the ranks.
I don't understand the category switch for Hope Davis, and Helen McCrory, for that matter. It's clear that neither woman is the lead, and were they placed in the supporting category, one of them (Davis) could actually win. That's not to say they aren't good. Davis was good as Hillary Clinton, particularly during a scene where she becomes unhinged when talks shift to Ken Starr. McCrory, like Michael Sheen, was fine, but not altogether memorable.
I think only two women stand a chance at breaking through as potential upsets: Romola Garai (Emma), whose performance seems reminiscent of Keira Knightley's in Pride & Prejudice; and Jill Scott (Sins of the Mother), one of the few singer-turned-actresses who's made a smooth transition from one medium to the other.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
- EMMA (Michael Gambon)
- HAMLET (Patrick Stewart)
- TEMPLE GRANDIN (David Strathairn)
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (John Goodman)
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (Danny Huston)
These look like the right names to put here, but I have absolutely no idea who the frontrunner is. None. Backup nominees? Jim Broadbent (Einstein and Eddington) is good in any role he lands; Rami Malek (The Pacific) deserves a nomination, but being an unknown hurts his case; and Jonathan Pryce (Return to Cranford) will likely end up on my official predictions list a little later, but for now, I don't know who to swap out for him.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
- GEORGIA O'KEEFE (Tyne Daly)
- RETURN TO CRANFORD (Imelda Staunton)
- TEMPLE GRANDIN (Julia Ormond)
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (Susan Sarandon)
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (Brenda Vaccaro)
See above, though the buzz right now is in Imelda Staunton's favor. Kathy Bates (Alice) might slip in (she is playing the Queen of Hearts); two of the women from A Dog Year (Lauren Ambrose; Lois Smith) always make for some fine television-watching; and Catherine O'Hara (Temple Grandin) should hopefully earn a nomination as a guest actress in a comedy, but if not, co-starring in a movie is Plan B.
DIRECTING IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
- GEORGIA O'KEEFE (Bob Balaban)
- THE PACIFIC (Part Eight: "Iwo Jima" - David Nutter & Jeremy Podeswa)
- THE PACIFIC (Part Nine: "Okinawa" - Tim Van Patten)
- TEMPLE GRANDIN (Mick Jackson)
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (Barry Levinson)
Bob Balaban has an early DGA (Directors Guild of America) nomination to his credit for his film; Mick Jackson is a past nominee who goes about getting inside Temple's head in a creative way; and Barry Levinson is attached to the strongest television movie of the year. Translation: he's in.
There's a chance Richard Loncraine could get in for The Special Relationship, but I feel The Pacific will garner more than one mention here. The name "Iwo Jima" alone conjurs up images of American soldiers storming the beach, and those kind of scenes feel really authentic if they're done well. In the episode "Okinawa," characters are put in situations where they may not say or do anything for a while (i.e. Joe Mazzello's character in the hut after a bombing raid), yet those quiet moments speak volumes. It's a nice combination of committed acting, sharp writing and ace direction.
WRITING IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE
- EMMA (Sandy Welch)
- THE PACIFIC (Part Ten: "Home" - Bruce C. McKenna & Robert Schenkkan)
- THE SPECIAL RELATIONSHIP (Peter Morgan)
- TEMPLE GRANDIN (Christopher Monger & Merritt Johnson)
- YOU DON'T KNOW JACK (Adam Mazer)
Finally, the writing. As with virtually everything else, You Don't Know Jack, Temple Grandin and The Pacific should have no problems earning mentions here, but I think this is the one (and only) area where The Special Relationship could pull off a win. In my opinion, Peter Morgan is the best screenwriter working today, and his script for Richard Loncraine's television film was in line with his other works.
I'm going out on a limb, somewhat, and predicting Emma's writer Sandy Welch will earn a nomination over Georgia O'Keefe's Michael Cristofer, who earned a mention from the Writers Guild of America (WGA). Welch has been nominated before (Jane Eyre), and the Emmys have a history of continuously nominating the same people whenever they get the chance.
The nominations for the Primetime Emmy Awards will be on Thursday, July 8. I'll likely have my official predictions in the same categories a week before the nominees are announced.
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