And the Nominees Will (Probably) Be. . . FINAL OSCAR PROJECTIONS 2012

Tuesday morning, the AMPAS will finally unveil their nominees for the upcoming 84th Annual Academy Awards. What's interesting about this year is just how many open slots there are across the board.

To start, exactly how many Best Picture nominees will we have? All year, the Academy has teased that it will be somewhere between 5 and 10. A few analysts believe the magic number is 6, but no one really knows. A quick look at other Oscar prognosticators' predictions pages tells us something else: we have no idea who the five Best Director nominees will be either.

One good thing about 2011 was the unusually strong number of notable performances, particularly when it came to women in leading roles. In fact, the competition is so tight in the Best Actress field that a typical shoo-in like Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs) may have to sit this one out, given the lukewarm response to her labor of love.

Supporting Actress is basically a six-woman race between Berenice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help - the only real lock here) and Shailene Woodley (The Descendants). Outside of The Artist and Midnight in Paris, Original Screenplay is wide open. Adapted Screenplay seems to have 4 out of 5 spots filled, but that last nominee is hard to pin down.

It will be interesting to see how things transpire on Tuesday. Regardless, here is how I believe things will unfold in all 24 categories. . .


PROJECTED TALLY

  • 12 nominations: Hugo
  • 10 nominations: The Artist
  • 7 nominations: The Help
  • 6 nominations: War Horse
  • 5 nominations: The Descendants; The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • 4 nominations: Moneyball
  • 3 nominations: Albert Nobbs; Anonymous; Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2; Midnight in Paris; Rango; Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • 2 nominations: The Adventures of Tintin; Drive; The Iron Lady; The Muppets; My Week with Marilyn; A Separation; Super 8



BEST PICTURE

  • The Artist
  • The Descendants
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • Midnight in Paris
  • Moneyball
  • War Horse



DIRECTOR

  • Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
  • Alexander Payne (The Descendants)
  • David Fincher (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
  • Martin Scorsese (Hugo)
  • Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)



ACTOR

  • George Clooney (The Descendants)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)
  • Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
  • Michael Fassbender (Shame)
  • Brad Pitt (Moneyball)



ACTRESS

  • Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
  • Viola Davis (The Help)
  • Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
  • Tilda Swinton (We Need To Talk About Kevin)
  • Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)



SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
  • Albert Brooks (Drive)
  • Jonah Hill (Moneyball)
  • Nick Nolte (Warrior)
  • Christopher Plummer (Beginners)



SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Berenice Bejo (The Artist)
  • Jessica Chastain (The Help)
  • Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)
  • Octavia Spencer (The Help)
  • Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)




ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  • The Artist
  • Bridesmaids
  • 50/50
  • Midnight in Paris
  • A Separation




ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  • The Descendants
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • Moneyball




ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

  • The Adventures of Tintin
  • Chico & Rita
  • Kung Fu Panda 2
  • Puss in Boots
  • Rango



ART DIRECTION - SET DECORATION

  • Anonymous
  • The Artist
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
  • Hugo
  • War Horse



CINEMATOGRAPHY

  • The Artist
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • The Tree of Life
  • War Horse



COSTUME DESIGN

  • Anonymous
  • The Artist
  • The Help
  • Hugo
  • Jane Eyre




DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

  • Bill Cunningham New York
  • Hell and Back Again
  • Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
  • Project Nim
  • Under Fire: Journalists in Combat




DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

  • In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypt's Unfinished Revolution
  • Pipe Dreams
  • The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
  • Witness




FILM EDITING

  • The Artist
  • Drive
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • War Horse




FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

  • In Darkness (POLAND)
  • Monsier Lazhar (CANADA)
  • Pina (GERMANY)
  • A Separation (IRAN)
  • Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale (TAIWAN)




MAKEUP

  • Anonymous
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
  • The Iron Lady




MUSIC SCORE

  • The Artist
  • Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hugo
  • War Horse




ORIGINAL SONG

  • "Coeur Volant" (Hugo)
  • "Lay Your Head Down" (Albert Nobbs)
  • "Life's A Happy Song" (The Muppets)
  • "The Living Proof" (The Help)
  • "Pictures in My Head" (The Muppets)



SHORT FILM - Animated

  • La Luna
  • The Magic Piano
  • A Morning Stroll
  • Paths of Hate
  • Wildlife



SHORT FILM - Live Action

  • Raju
  • The Road Home
  • Sailcloth
  • The Shore
  • Tuba Atlantic




SOUND MIXING

  • Hugo
  • Rango
  • Super 8
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • War Horse



SOUND EDITING

  • The Adventures of Tintin
  • Hugo
  • Rango
  • Super 8
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon




VISUAL EFFECTS

  • Captain America: The First Avenger
  • Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2
  • Hugo
  • Rise of the Planet of the Apes
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon



Feel free to make your own projections below.

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Comments 7 comments

CarltheCritic1291 profile image

CarltheCritic1291 4 years ago

Very interesting, and well thought out predictions :)


mandawg9 profile image

mandawg9 4 years ago Author

Thanks! I kind of enjoy taking a stab at them every year.


Kish 4 years ago

Great analysis!


mandawg9 profile image

mandawg9 4 years ago Author

Thank you!


Preston Barta profile image

Preston Barta 4 years ago from Dallas, TX

I would say that's fairly accurate. I'm still hoping that DRIVE will score a Best Picture nom. Fingers crossed. And perhaps Woody Harrelson will pull a surprise for a Best Actor; I just watched his film RAMPART, and his performance was just as good as Michael Fassbender in SHAME (well, right below him). But the campaign for him isn't as strong as the others. Great predictions, sir!


mandawg9 profile image

mandawg9 4 years ago Author

Thanks! The two unlikely-but-still possible nominations I'm hoping to see tomorrow are DRIVE for Best Picture and Rooney Mara for Best Actress.


Preston Barta profile image

Preston Barta 4 years ago from Dallas, TX

I couldn't agree more! I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

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