Oscar Predictions of 2013 part 2 of 2

Introduction

Another year has passed, and the time has come to unveil my Oscar predictions for 2013. I remember when I first started doing these prediction hubs on hubpages, I was something of an amateur at this, but I got better over time; while taking in a lot of constructive criticism during my time on this site.

Although I can't say all my predictions have been perfect, but I do try to make the best with what I have. For those that don't know how I do these prediction hubs, then I'll gladly explain it first.

For starters, I only do predictions for the main categories such as "Best Picture", "Best Animated Feature", "Best Actress" and etc. Therefore, if you're expecting me to do predictions for something "Best Cinematography", "Best Short Documentary" or something along those lines, then you'll be very disappointed.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to do predictions for all the categories someday, but I often burden myself every year, to always watch all the films nominated for screenplays and "Best Picture"; while also seeing all the movies that feature the actors that were nominated for Oscars.

Granted, I know I don't have to watch all those movies to do a prediction hub, as I could easily be like some of my competitors on hubpages, and just write a Oscar prediction without it. However, as many of my readers know, I always try to be fair when it comes to reviewing movies; hence I just feel the only accurate way to depict a film's chances is to actually see it firsthand before predicting anything. Sadly, this ends up being very time consuming to say the least; hence I can only do the main categories. Perhaps someday, I'll find more time to do all the other ones too, but for now, lets just focus on what we have for the moment.

Although having said all that, I do make a huge exception when it comes to predicting the "Best Visual Effects" category. The reason is that when I was a kid, science-fiction and fantasy films were what I mainly grew up with, so there's always a certain nostalgic feel to watching special effects movies. Therefore, I often make visual effects the one exception in addition to the main nominations.

Anyways, during each Oscar category, I often put down who I feel will win the Oscar for that particular category; based on my research of that particular film, as I cite my reasons to the reader.

After that, I list the "Possible Upsets", which generally mean people/films that have a legitimate shot at winning the Oscar, in the unlikely event the favorite doesn't win.

Finally, we have "Runner Ups"; which implies films/people that have no shot at winning the nomination it's up for.

Also, this hub will be divided into two chapters. With part one, we'll be going over my predictions for "Best Visual Effects", all the acting nominations, and screenplay nods as well. While in part 2, we'll be going over "Best Animated Feature", "Best Director", and "Best Picture."

Anyways, I hope all my readers enjoy reading this prediction hub, and thank you all for joining me today. Now without further delay lets get started...

Best Animated Feature

Winner:

Brave- Although I personally didn't think "Brave" deserved to be nominated, but I'd be a damned fool for writing it off in this category. Not saying that "Brave" was a bad film by any means, as I still enjoyed it.

However, it's a bit over hyped, as the story is fairly predictable; along with mostly generic and uninteresting characters. Granted, there's the witch that's interesting, but she's only in the movie for less than ten minutes. And even though this film does have it's moments, it's not enough to where I'd say this film worth the hype it got.

Pixar has always been a favorite among Oscar voters and most audiences, so it wouldn't be hard to imagine this film taking home the "Best Animated Feature Award" this year.

Plus, it won the golden the globe award earlier this year for "Best Animated Film"; along with various other nominations from other award shows. Therefore, it's safe to say that "Brave" might be the film to beat this year in terms of animated movies.

Possible Upsets:

Wreck-It Ralph- If there's one film that can upset "Brave", then I'd put my money on "Wreck-It Ralph." Not only was the film arguably one of the most visually innovative films of last year, but it also featured a great compelling family story that made it popular among both critics and audiences. In fact, it's been widely considered by most critics to be one of the most original animated movies ever made. Plus, winning a "Critic's Choice Award" for "Best Animated Feature" doesn't hurt it's chances either.

Frankenweenie- Another film to watch out for in this category could be Tim Burton's remake of "Frankenweenie." Not only does the film feature an innovative story that features a lot of references to old "monster" films of the past, which may emit a nostalgia feeling for Oscar voters, but it also features some of the best stop motion animation that you'll ever find in a movie.

Plus, coming off a nomination for both a "BAFTA Award" and a "Golden Globe" doesn't hurt either, as it could easily upset "Brave" in this category.

ParaNorman- Fresh off it's nomination for a "BAFTA Award", "ParaNorman" not only features arguably the best story among any of these other films nominated, but it also has some of the best visuals as well. Although "Brave" does seem to be the movie to beat in this category, it would be hard to argue that "ParaNorman" doesn't have a great chance.

After all, we're talking about the same creators that brought us "Coraline", so it would be unwise to under estimate "ParaNorman" as a possible contender here.

Runner-Ups:

The Pirates! The Band of Misfits- Although I thought that "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" was one of the funniest animated movies ever made, the sad reality is that it has the worst chance to win "Best Animated Feature" this year. Out of all the animated movies nominated, this film received the least nominations among other Award shows.

To make matters worse, it was released back in April of 2012, so the odds are that Oscar voters may have already forgotten about this movie; which is a real shame, as "The Pirates! Band of Misfits" is arguably one of the funniest animated movies ever made.

Not to mention the visuals alone could easily rival any of the top dogs in this category.

Best Animated Feature Poll

Which animated film do you think should win "Best Animated Feature?"

  • Frankenweenie
  • Wreck-It Ralph
  • ParaNorman
  • Brave
  • The Pirates! Band of Misfits
See results without voting
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) | Source
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi) | Source
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

Best Director

Winner:

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)- With the most Oscar nominations at this year's Academy Awards, then it would be hard to argue that "Lincoln" isn't going win Spielberg another possible Oscar to add to his already impressive resume.

Plus, it doesn't hurt that "Lincoln" has been garnering a lot of hype around Oscar time, so that could only help Spielberg's chances.

Possible Upsets:

Ang Lee (Life of Pi)- Another movie that's getting hot around the right time just happens to be "Life of Pi." It was not only a success among both audiences and critics, but it's been gaining a lot of nominations among various other awards ceremonies as well; one of them being the Golden Globe nomination for "Best Picture." Although it's doubtful that Ang Lee could pull off an upset here, but he seems to be the only contender that can.

Runner-Ups:

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)- Although I'm sure I'll get a lot of flak for saying this, but David O. Russell has no shot to win this award. Don't get me wrong, "Silver Linings Playbook" was arguably one of the best romantic comedies to have ever come out in recent years. The sad reality is that most romantic comedies typically don't do that well among Oscar voters. Sure, there's exceptions like Woody Allen's "Annie Hall", but majority of the time it's rare to see a romantic comedy dominate an award show like the Academy Awards.

Although one advantage that David O. Russell has in this category is that "Silver Linings Playbook" is getting a lot of hype around this time; which can only work in it's favor. However, I wouldn't bet on David O. Russell walking away with the Oscar this year for "Best Director."

Michael Haneke (Amour)- "Amour" was is possibly one of the most touching romantic films ever made, but the sad reality is that it has virtually no chance to win "Best Picture" or "Best Director." If anything, the only thing the nominations prove is that "Amour" is virtually a lock to win "Best Foreign Language Film" this year if anything else.

Although it'll be a nice nomination to add to Michael Haneke's resume, but the reality is that most foreign movies aren't typically favored when it comes to the Academy Awards.

Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)- "Beasts of the Southern Wild" is arguably one of the most creative fantasy films ever made. Not only was the story genuine and heartfelt, but it was also very raw in it's emotional impact. Sadly, due to it's very limited exposure, it's doubtful that "Beasts of the Southern Wild" will garner any Oscar victories; including "Best Director" for Benh Zeitlin. Sure, he did a great job with this movie with the limited budget he was forced to work with, but it's not going to be enough to win this year.

Best Director Poll

Who do you think should win best director?

  • Michael Haneke (Amour)
  • Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
  • Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
  • Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
  • David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
See results without voting

Best Picture

Winner:

Lincoln- Coming in with the most nominations at this year's Academy Awards, and it's gaining a lot of buzz around Oscar time, so that could only help it's chances.

Plus, with Steven Spielberg already looking like the heavy favorite to win "Best Director", then there's still a good chance that "Lincoln" could win it as well.

After all, the Academy Awards for "Best Picture" and "Best Director" usually go hand in hand, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if "Lincoln" pulled away with an Oscar this year.

And, lets not also forget that many viewers were disappointed by the fact that "War Horse" didn't win "Best Picture" last year; similar to how people were upset that "Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" lost to "A Beautiful Mind", in 2002, for "Best Picture."

Hence, leading up to where Oscar voters chose to make up for that by electing "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" to win "Best Picture", in 2004.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" didn't deserve it based solely on it's own merit, but I'm merely stating an observation.

As for what the hell does any of this have to do with "Lincoln", I'll get into that now. Based solely on "Lincoln's" own merit, it's a great movie, and it definitely deserves all the praises it gets.

However, since Spielberg's last movie, "War Horse", was so well received by audiences that many were upset, by it not getting an Oscar for "Best Picture" in 2012, there's a distinct possibility that Oscar voters might be prone to make up for that this year with "Lincoln."

Possible Upsets:

Argo- Eh, I'm a bit of a gambler sometimes, so I'll roll with predicting "Argo", as a possible upset, this year for "Best Picture."

Granted, it doesn't have the most nominations this year, as that courtesy belongs to "Lincoln."

And to make it more interesting, Ben Affleck isn't even nominated for "Best Director" either; which isn't a good sign to say the least.

Therefore, only a damn fool would pick "Argo" to have any kind of chance in this category. Am I right? Or am I right?

However, with god as my witness, I am that fool.

Now, before all my readers start to think that maybe I've lost my mind about this, I'd like to explain why I feel "Argo" could still have a shot at winning "Best Picture"; in spite of it's lack of a directing nomination.

For starters, the film is arguably the hottest movie coming into the Academy Awards this year. Not only pulling off various nominations in other award ceremonies, but also winning "Best Picture"; in such award shows such as the Golden Globes for "Best Drama", BAFTA for "Best Film", a SAG award for "Best Cast Ensemble in a Movie", and many others.

It's no secret that "Argo" is one of the hottest films of last year, as it's gaining a lot of hype around Oscar season.

Plus, it's a film that glorifies the efforts of the CIA and Hollywood working together to save a bunch of American diplomatic employees from Iran, and if "The Artist" taught us anything, it's that Oscar voters love movies that portrays Hollywood in some way or another.

Therefore, I wouldn't rule out "Argo's" chances of pulling away with an upset here, as it could potentially become the fourth film to ever win "Best Picture"; in spite of it's lack of a directing nomination.

Life of Pi- Another hot movie that's coming into the Oscars is "Life of Pi." Not only was Ang Lee's "Life of Pi" a critical success this year, but it's also gaining a lot of hype around Oscar time this year.

Add in the fact that Ang Lee is possibly the biggest threat to upset Steven Spielberg for "Best Director" this year, so it's a distinct possibility that we could end up seeing "Life of Pi" come away with an Academy Award for "Best Picture."

Runner Ups:

Amour- Like "Up" and "Rango" were when they were nominated, "Amour" is nothing more than a token nomination by the Oscar voters, to show how any film has a chance to win "Best Picture"; while showing little to no biases towards any genre of movie.

However, what the nomination for "Amour" means, in reality, is that it's a lock to win "Best Foreign Language Film", and this nomination is nothing more than a token nod if anything else.

Meaning that the Oscar voters have no intention of selecting it to win "Best Picture", and if they were nominating only five films like the old days, then chances are that "Amour" wouldn't have been nominated this year.

Don't get me wrong, I loved the film myself, as I found it to be a very touching love story. But lets be honest with ourselves here, Oscar voters rarely show that much love to foreign movies, so why should any of us expect that to change this year?

Django Unchained- Nothing turns off Oscar voters more than good old fashioned violence; especially violence that makes you laugh while watching it.

Sure, there's been a few exceptions in the past, but more often than not, it's rare to see films that glorify violence win "Best Picture."

Silver Linings Playbook- As I mentioned earlier about David O. Russell's chances for "Best Director", the sad reality is that most romantic comedies aren't often favored when it comes to Academy Awards. Sure, there are rare occasions such as "Annie Hall" winning "Best Picture" back in 1978, but it's very rare to see that happen.

Sure, it has a slight chance because of the hype that's surrounding it heading into the Oscars this year, but you can say the same thing about "Argo", "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi", and they have way better chances than "Silver Linings Playbook."

Les Miserables- Considering how "Les Miserables" failed to not only get a single screenplay nomination, but Tom Hooper wasn't even nominated either for "Best Director." Factoring those two things in, it's safe to say that "Les Miserables" has a snowball's chance in hell to win this award if any at all.

Don't get me wrong, I loved this movie myself, but I wouldn't bet on it winning "Best Picture."

Beasts of the Southern Wild- Arguably one of the best fantasy films ever conceived, but I'd be lying to a lot of readers if I said it had any chance to win an Oscar this year for "Best Picture." Due to it's limited exposure, there's a good chance that many Oscar voters may have forgotten about "Beasts of the Southern Wild."

Plus, it doesn't exactly help that it was released around spring of 2012 either, so I wouldn't count on this movie pulling off any kind of upset.

Zero Dark Thirty- Like "Argo", "Zero Dark Thirty" also failed to land a directing nomination this year; which could hinder it's chances. However, unlike "Argo", "Zero Dark Thirty" doesn't carry the same amount of hype surrounding it, and it doesn't help that the film is shrouded in controversy; in light of it's pro-torture stance on war criminals.

Sure, it has a great chance to win "Best Original Screenplay", but I doubt it'll carry over to where we'll be hearing about it winning "Best Picture."

Plus, we have to keep in mind that the Oscar voters like to be politically correct at times; which is why we sometimes see movies that don't deserve to nominated end up getting a nod anyway (i.e. "The Help" and "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close").

Therefore, I wouldn't bet on "Zero Dark Thirty" running away with this award. Sure, it's a favorite to win "Best Original Screenplay", but it has no shot to win "Best Picture."

Best Picture Poll

Which film do you think deserves to win "Best Picture?"

  • Argo
  • Django Unchained
  • Amour
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild
  • Life of Pi
  • Silver Linings Playbook
  • Lincoln
  • Zero Dark Thirty
  • Les Misérables
See results without voting

Django Unchained

Amour

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

Argo

Life of Pi

Beasts of the Southern Wild

Les Misérables

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Comments 10 comments

Nickalooch profile image

Nickalooch 3 years ago from Columbia, MD

good write up. Of all the movies I have yet to see Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln still.

i sadly saw Die Hard this weekend, makes me want to watch an actual good movie so badly now. I think I'll give Lincoln a try lol.

anyways, you told me to let you know when my webseries is up and two episodes are now out. I hope you are well though, good to see that you are still writing.


Stevennix2001 profile image

Stevennix2001 3 years ago Author

Thanks, and it's good to hear you got your web series up already. I'll be sure to check it out then as soon as I get a chance. Anyways, I hope you enjoy "Lincoln", as I know it's a pretty good film.

As for the new "Die Hard" film, I keep hearing all these negative things about it; which doesn't exactly thrill me, as I know I'm going to end up watching that too sometime this week. lol Anyways, you take care.


Nickalooch profile image

Nickalooch 3 years ago from Columbia, MD

My most recent article is a pseudo write up of my webseries. It has a link to everything if you wanna check it out. I actually came across my first issue in a lot of ways as one of the actors had to take sometime off for personal reasons and scheduling.


Stevennix2001 profile image

Stevennix2001 3 years ago Author

that sucks. well hopefully that minor setback didn't delay the whole production for too long. I did notice that hub your referring to, as I'll definitely read it tomorrow when i get off work, and check out the webseries as well.


Nickalooch profile image

Nickalooch 3 years ago from Columbia, MD

it was a touchy subject, but im proud of how I handled it. After all every director has to deal with things like this...so i look at it as a learning experience.


Stevennix2001 profile image

Stevennix2001 3 years ago Author

That's cool. Well I'm glad to hear it worked out for you.


Nickalooch profile image

Nickalooch 3 years ago from Columbia, MD

anyways, good stuff and im glad to see that you are still writing away on Hubpages.


Stevennix2001 profile image

Stevennix2001 3 years ago Author

Thanks, and it's good to see that you are as well. Sadly, it doesn't look like I'll make my deadline for the razzie award predictions, but oh well. what can you do? lol


Flightkeeper profile image

Flightkeeper 3 years ago from The East Coast

Hi Stevennnix! Great job on the write up. I agree with you that Brave did not deserve its award, I would have preferred Wreckit Ralph. I was glad Argo won over Lincoln because I thought Lincoln was boring. As for best director, I thought Ang Lee's movie was better than Spielberg because of the execution.


Stevennix2001 profile image

Stevennix2001 3 years ago Author

Thanks Flight. I'm glad you liked the hub, and i agree with you that "Wreck-It Ralph" was a much better film than brave. Heck, I was hoping either that film or "ParaNorman" would've won it, as I really loved those films.

As for "Argo" winning best picture, I'm glad it won. But then again, I did like most of the other films that were nominated for "Best Picture", so I wouldn't have been upset by either one of them winning. The only gripe I have is that I wish they would've nominated "The Master" for best picture, as that film definitely deserved it.

anyways, thanks again for stopping by, as it's always a pleasure seeing you

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