Predicting the 2010 Emmy Winners - Part 2 of 3 (THE DRAMAS)
We continue now with the drama nominees. . .
OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: MAD MEN (Runner-up: LOST)
- My Pick: MAD MEN (Runner-up: LOST or DEXTER)
K.A.: Out of all the nominees, Mad Men is the most voter-friendly choice. It's won twice before, and had the most consistent season out of all the other nominees. Lost comes in a close second, for its final season. It won in Season 1 but has become confusing to some voters since then. A dark horse could be Dexter, having had one of its best seasons yet.
ME: Season 3 may very well have been Mad Men’s best. I wouldn’t mind seeing another series win, but if the AMC drama takes it for a third straight year, I can’t say it didn’t deserve it. While I do think Lost has potential to go out with a bang, even as a fan of the show, I don’t think it deserves to win for its sixth season. Dexter only gets better every year, and I’d be quite happy if it won here.
LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: Matthew Fox, LOST (Runner-up: Michael C. Hall)
- My Pick: Michael C. Hall, DEXTER (Runner-up: Bryan Cranston)
K.A.: Going out on a limb, I'm predicting Matthew Fox. Out of all the tapes submitted by the nominees, I found Fox’s performance to be the most emotionally satisfying. Michael C. Hall definitely has a strong shot (maybe the strongest) at a win. The dark horse in this category is Kyle Chandler. He's great in his tape, and the fact that he and his co-star finally scored well-deserved nominations shows that voters are finally paying attention to the amazing Friday Night Lights.
ME: The other three times a lead actor won both the Globe and the SAG, he ended up losing the Emmy. Regardless, I think Hall has enough momentum in his favor to pull off a win. Breaking Bad's Cranston is always fantastic, too, so he could very well pull off a three-peat. My wishful thinking vote goes to Kyle Chandler. I actually think he’s good enough to win, but then again, I’ve always thought he was perfect as Coach Eric Taylor. Fox turned in his best performance ever on the Lost finale. Too many good choices here this year.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: Julianna Margulies, THE GOOD WIFE (Runner-up: Kyra Sedgewick)
- My Pick: Julianna Margulies, THE GOOD WIFE (Runner-up: Kyra Sedgewick)
K.A.: Julianna Margulies, a former Emmy favorite and winner for ER, gave a comeback performance in her new hit series The Good Wife, which had so much support that it scored a Best Drama Series nomination. Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer) probably gives the best performance amongst the tapes submitted to Emmy voters, but I'm not sure if she will ever win for her great character. Connie (Friday Night Lights) is the dark horse, just like her co-star Kyle.
ME: Margulies should have no problem claiming her trophy. Glenn Close (Damages) is vulnerable with her series missing out on a nod for Drama Series. Sedgewick probably won’t ever win, but if it’s any consolation, I think she’s in a firm second place position. Wishful thinking pick: Connie Britton. How great would it be if both she and Kyle won? It’d be so great that it probably won’t ever happen, but I’d love to see it regardless.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: Michael Emerson, LOST (Runner-up: Aaron Paul)
- My Pick: Andre Braugher, MEN OF A CERTAIN AGE (Runner-up: Michael Emerson)
K.A.: This category is one of the more competitive ones. Terry O’Quinn (Lost) was probably the most impressive in terms of his season-long arc as dual characters Locke and The Man in Black. However, he submitted the wrong episode to be judged by Emmy voters. Emerson’s tape is much more impressive. I think the win will come down to last year’s winner, Emerson, and Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad).
ME: Had O’Quinn submitted an episode where he really got to chew scenery as last season’s villain, this would probably be a done deal. Instead, it’s kind of up in the air. I could see Braugher, Emerson or Paul winning, but I’m going with the former, who is never to be underestimated when it comes to the Emmys. Plus, I think his struggling everyman storyline will really resonate with voters. Also, the last time an actor won twice in this category was 1996, which is why I think both Emerson and O'Quinn are at a disadvantage this time around.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: Christina Hendricks, MAD MEN (Runner-up: Christine Baranski)
- My Pick: Christina Hendricks, MAD MEN (Runner-up: Elisabeth Moss)
K.A.: This is probably the weakest list of nominees in all of the categories this year. Having watched all the tapes, I can safely say the majority of these ladies do not deserve to be nominated. Christina easily gives the best performance on her tape. Christine Baranski (The Good Wife) is an Emmy and industry favorite. Her tape is decent, so if the voters want to continue to award older actresses in this category, then I think it will be Christine who gets the win, not Burn Notice’s Sharon Gless.
ME: If Moss had submitted the episode where Peggy got high, this would be one of the easiest to call. Instead, her co-star will take it, giving the best performance of all the nominated actresses. Still, I think Emmy voters like Moss, so there is a slight chance she could still win. But submitting the wrong episode will likely cost her what should have been an easy Emmy victory.
GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: John Lithgow, DEXTER (Runner-up: Gregory Itzin)
- My Pick: John Lithgow, DEXTER
K.A.: John Lithgow will win this. Period. His only competition, in my opinion, is Gregory Itzin (24). His tape is fantastic, and if he was nominated last year or any other, he probably would have won.
ME: Should be a slam dunk. It would be cool if both he and Hall won. I don’t see any competition for miles.
GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: Ann-Margret, LAW & ORDER: SVU (Runner-up: Mary Kay Place)
- My Pick: Lily Tomlin, DAMAGES (Runner-up: Sissy Spacek)
K.A.: Ann-Margret gives a decent performance in which she gets to play a drunken stalker being interrogated by the police. Add to that the fact that she scored a nomination for being on Law & Order: SVU, a show that has won this award countless times in the past, and you got yourself a frontrunner for the Emmy win. Personally, I think the Big Love ladies are the best in the category. Lily Tomlin is probably the strongest nominee in terms of the season as a whole. However, her tape doesn't have a strong impact. Elizabeth Mitchell will only win if the Emmys REALLY love Lost.
ME: Except for Mitchell, who was good but not really awards-worthy good, I haven’t seen any of the other performances, so this is almost total blind-guessing. Tomlin has a lot of buzz around her performance, and from the season’s promo clips I’ve seen, she’s the frontrunner. I could definitely see either Spacek or Place taking it, but I’m sticking with Lily on this one.
DIRECTING IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: LOST, "The End" (Runner-up: BREAKING BAD, "One Minute")
- My Pick: LOST, "The End" (Runner-up: MAD MEN, "Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency")
K.A.: The Emmys usually like to give directing awards to series they want to say goodbye to (ER won recently, as did The Sopranos). This year's Emmy will more than likely go to Jack Bender for directing the series finale of Lost. I've always felt that Breaking Bad is an excellently-directed series, and they could stand a great shot at winning the award. The dark horse here is Dexter.
ME: Kaison’s point about series in their final seasons winning here is a great one. Even if that weren’t a factor, however, Lost would be in the driver’s seat because, frankly, it featured what is undeniably the best-directed episode of the past season. I don’t really expect Mad Men to upset here, but seeing as how it’s the only other nominee that was nominated for directing and writing, I think it would be next in line.
WRITING IN A DRAMA SERIES
- Kaison's Pick: MAD MEN, "Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency" (Runner-up: FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS, "The Son")
- My Pick: MAD MEN, "Guy Walks Into An Advertising Agency" (Runner-up: MAD MEN, "Shut the Door. Have a Seat.")
K.A.: In a perfect world, Friday Night Lights would win this Emmy. However, Mad Men scored multiple nominations in this category again, with its strongest being "Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency." More than likely, this episode will take the Emmy win and it would be wrong of me to bet against it. Personally, I’m hoping Friday Night Lights prevails.
ME: "Guy" is one of Mad Men’s best episodes to date, in terms of writing, directing and acting. I think the only thing stopping the episode from winning is the show’s own season finale. Many pundits are actually picking "Shut the Door", but "Guy" was definitely the more impressive submission.
We wrap up the winners predictions with the Movies & Miniseries. . .
HOW WE DID
Kaison's Tally: 3 of 9 correct - 33% correct
My Tally: 2 of 9 correct - 22% correct (hey, what can we say, they made a lot of wild moves this year).
- The montage of all the dramas (nice clips of Friday Night Lights, Dexter, Breaking Bad, Lost, 24, etc.) <-- without question, the dramas outdo the comedies.
- Aaron Paul winning Supporting Actor!!! <-- highlight of the evening
- The comic musical tribute to the three shows we lost: 24, Law & Order and Lost.
- Kyra Sedgewick finally winning!!!
- Ricky Gervais, of course, poking fun at Mel Gibson. Then hoping Bucky Gunts won, and then, of course, he did.
- Tribute to George Clooney (well-deserved. Don't be surprised if Brad Pitt gets this next year).
- Tom Selleck's deadpan reaction to his "son," Jimmy Fallon.
- Mad Men winning the writing award for the lesser episode.
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