The Globes Are Coming: Official Predictions for 2010-2011

That was fast.

Seems like it wasn't too long ago that we were just predicting who would get nominated. Now, the winners for the 68th Annual Golden Globe Awards will be announced this Sunday.

For the most part, I don't expect too many surprises. The television shows that will end up walking away with trophies are more than likely going to mirror the same recipients from last year's Primetime Emmy Awards.

But, as always, television isn't the main event for this awards show. The Globes are meant to help us see who's likely to rack up some wins for February's Academy Awards. Certain films have a lot of momentum going in, thanks to earning some accolades from different festivals and less notable awards venues. If upsets are in the making, they're likely to show up here.

Below are my predictions for how things will pan out this Sunday. While I did not predict who would get nominated for the television categories, I am taking a stab at guessing who will win.



Motion Picture (Drama)

  • Projected Winner: The Social Network
  • Runner-Up: The King's Speech

TSN is on too much of a roll to suggest it's vulnerable for the win. However, there's been a lot of talk of The King's Speech acting as a potential spoiler, and honestly, I could see that happening. It's a feel-good movie that boasts an impressive British cast, and after all, this is the Hollywood Foreign Press.


Actor (Drama)

  • Projected Winner: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
  • Runner-Up: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

It's Firth's to lose, and he won't be doing any of that. Personally, I think 127 Hours' James Franco should be next in line, but his film has, for whatever reason, lost some of its momentum, and Eisenberg's picked up a few wins recently.


Actress (Drama)

  • Projected Winner: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
  • Runner-Up: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

It's a young woman's game this year. Portman's been the frontrunner for a while now, and her film's strong showing at the box office is only cementing her place as the one to beat both here and at the Oscars. The other ladies are mostly in independent projects that not everyone has seen. That being said, Winter's Bone's Jennifer Lawrence has had the most buzz for the longest time, but Kidman is slowly gaining some ground.



Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy)

  • Projected Winner: The Kids Are All Right
  • Runner-Up: Alice in Wonderland

It's The Kids Are All Right vs. a spy comedy that garnered lukewarm reviews (Red) vs. three poorly received fillers. It should be a cakewalk for Kids. The only thing acting as a potential roadblock is Alice in Wonderland and its ridiculous box office numbers. 


Actor (Musical or Comedy)

  • Projected Winner: Johnny Depp, Alice in Wonderland
  • Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

What a crap lineup. Clearly, the HFPA loves them some Depp, so he's got the clear edge. I suppose anybody could upset, but the only realistic possibility I see is Giamatti.


Actress (Musical or Comedy)

  • Projected Winner: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
  • Runner-Up: Emma Stone, Easy A

The consensus for the better part of the year has been that Best Actress will come down between Portman and Bening, so both are expected to win in their respective categories. On the off-chance that Annette fails to win, did you hear the reaction from the crowd when Emma Stone's name was read aloud as a nominee? She's got some support on her side.



Supporting Actor

  • Projected Winner: Christian Bale, The Fighter
  • Runner-Up: Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Personally, I thought Rush was the better supporting actor from the previous year, but Bale's been on a winning spree, and the HFPA clearly loved The Fighter. Plus, a lot of people believe Christian is a devoted method actor who's overdue for some recognition.


Supporting Actress

  • Projected Winner: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
  • Runner-Up: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

This category has been difficult to figure out from the get-go, and it still is, honestly. For a time, it seemed like Weaver was the one to beat, but that may no longer be the case. Like her co-star Bale, Leo turns in a performance that, while occasionally over-the-top, does pack a punch. That, and voters seemed to really connect with The Fighter. Additionally, when they can, the Globes do like to reward the supporting performers in pairs (i.e. Eddie Murphy & Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls, Clive Owen & Natalie Portman for Closer, Chris Cooper & Meryl Streep for Adaptation.).


Director

  • Projected Winner: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
  • Runner-Up: David Fincher, The Social Network

Fincher's in the driver's seat since his film is expected to fair well, but Aronofsky is a definite threat. Black Swan is expertly put together, and its recent surge in popularity is only helping its case.


Screenplay

  • Projected Winner: The Social Network
  • Runner-Up: The King's Speech

Unless there is an unexpected overabundance of love for The King's Speech, Aaron Sorkin should expect to win for his excellent script.


Foreign Film

  • Projected Winner: Biutiful
  • Runner-Up: I Am Love

Typically, the film that wins here isn't necessarily the best that a foreign country had to offer. Instead, the most high-profile movie usually walks away with the trophy. Once you factor in the recent Best Actor Javier Bardem push has gotten from the likes of Julia Roberts and Natalie Portman, his film's chances have improved a great deal.


Animated Film

  • Projected Winner: Toy Story 3
  • Runner-Up: Tangled

Should be the easiest win of the night to call.


Score

  • Projected Winner: The King's Speech
  • Runner-Up: Inception

Except for maybe Alice in Wonderland, any of the nominated scores could win. Of the five, Alexandre Desplat's score for The King's Speech seems like the safest bet. It's the kind of music that members of the voting committee are likely to adore. If it wins here, expect a repeat at the Oscars.


Song

  • Projected Winner: Burlesque ("You Haven't Seen the Last of Me")
  • Runner-Up: Burlesque ("Bound to You")

As I stated in the article where I analyzed the eligible film songs, I personally think "Bound to You" is the better song, but "You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" is the kind of record that Globe and Academy members alike seem to eat up. A ballad sung by an icon and written by frequently nominated songwriter Dianne Warren? Yeah, I think it's the one to beat here.



Television Series (Drama)

  • Projected Winner: Mad Men
  • Runner-Up: Boardwalk Empire

It's tempting to pick HBO's new drama. After all, the Globes like to reward fresh, shiny new shows when they get the chance. But Mad Men has become a bit of television juggernaut when it comes to awards, and that's what keeps it in prime position to win here yet again.


Actor (Drama)

  • Projected Winner: Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
  • Runner-Up: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad

Being a part of a brand new, critically-acclaimed HBO series helps Buscemi out quite a bit. However, this is the first time (unbelievably, I would add) that Cranston has been nominated in this category, and there is a chance his third win at last year's Emmys could work in his favor.


Actress (Drama)

  • Projected Winner: Kyra Sedgewick, The Closer
  • Runner-Up: Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife

Sedgewick is slightly out in front thanks to two key factors: she recently won an Emmy for her role, and this is the last time voters can reward her for The Closer. Margulies, however, could easily win again.



Television Series (Musical or Comedy)

  • Projected Winner: Modern Family
  • Runner-Up: Glee

Hopefully Globe members will rectify what they did last year and actually reward the better comedy. While reviews suggest Glee has gone down somewhat in terms of quality, Modern Family was just as good the second time around as it was in its freshman year.


Actor (Musical or Comedy)

  • Projected Winner: Steve Carell, The Office
  • Runner-Up: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

For Parsons, it's the same logic behind picking Sedgewick as the lead dramatic actress winner (i.e. winning an Emmy). For Carell, it's also the same logic behind picking Sedgewick (i.e. last chance to reward that particular performance). I think Carell's conditions carry more weight in this scenario.


Actress (Musical or Comedy)

  • Projected Winner: Laura Linney, The Big C
  • Runner-Up: Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie

Linney's one of those performers everybody in the industry seems to love, and she's in a brand new show, so her odds are good. Falco, however, did recently win an Emmy for her part, and Globe members could make up for passing her over last year.



Miniseries or Made for Television Movie

  • Projected Winner: Temple Grandin
  • Runner-Up: Carlos

Grandin seems to be the smart choice, but Carlos got a lot of positive praise when it premiered at Cannes, and it's been on the radar (and several best-of lists) ever since.


Actor (Miniseries or Movie)

  • Projected Winner: Al Pacino, You Don't Know Jack
  • Runner-Up: Edgar Ramirez, Carlos

Pacino's performance actually is flashy enough to win, but walking away with some hardware won't be as big of a cakewalk as it was at the Emmys. Ramirez and Luther's Idris Elba are going to be earning a number of votes themselves.


Actress (Miniseries or Movie)

  • Projected Winner: Claire Danes, Temple Grandin
  • Runner-Up: Judi Dench, Return to Cranford

Upsets are known to occur at the Globes, but Claire Danes is going to win, handily.


Supporting Actor

  • Projected Winner: Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
  • Runner-Up: David Strathairn, Temple Grandin

Both just won Emmys for their supporting turns in their respective fields. Since the drama, comedy, movie and miniseries categories are combined for the Globes, however, only one of them can win. Stonestreet plays a flashier character, and ultimately, I think that will give him the edge.


Supporting Actress

  • Projected Winner: Jane Lynch, Glee
  • Runner-Up: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family

Lynch was passed over last time (surprisingly) for Big Love's Chloe Sevigny, but she's expected to be rewarded for her show's sophomore season. However, Vergara has been seriously funny in Modern Family, and if Lynch is to lose again, Sofia seems the most likely to pull an upset.

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