Who's Gonna Win in Iowa (and the Nominations)?

1. 58

   Shafer in 2008posted 16 years ago

   Hey All,
   
   Who do you think will win the Iowa Caucuses in both parties?
   
        Looks like the Democratic race in IA will come down to Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.
   
        Looks like the GOP race in IA will come down to Huckabee and Romney.
   
        MY PREDICTIONS FOR IOWA CAUCUSES:
             Democrats:
                      1st Place: John Edwards (probably like 30%)
                      2nd Place: Hillary Clinton (probably like 27%)
                      3rd Place: Barack Obama (probably like 25%)
                      Joe Biden finishes 4th with probably around 8%
   
             Republicans:
                      1st Place: Mitt Romney (probably like 28%)
                      2nd Place: Mike Huckabee (probably like 26%)
                      3rd Place: John McCain (probably like 18%)
                      4th Place: Rudy Giuliani (probably like 10%)
   
   Who do you think will win the nominations?
          Looks like Obama or Hillary are gonna win the Dem nomination.
   
          Looks like the GOP race is much more open with Romney, Rudy, and McCain having the best shot (maybe Huckabee).
   
          MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NOMINATIONS:
               Democrats: Hillary Clinton (aided by Edwards' win in IA and Obama's 3rd place finish there-- Obama and Hillary are the only ones that can run well beyond IA, so an Edwards victory in IA would damage Obama in later states, giving Hillary the edge and the nomination)
   
               Republicans: Unsure (John McCain and Rudy Giuliani-- McCain 3rd place finish in IA could boost him to win over Romney in NH and maybe in MI, giving him monentum into SC and FL and Super Tuesday; most of the delegates vote in bigger more pro-Rudy states and he remains competitive in MI and NH, bringing a muddled race into FL and Super Tuesday where he would run the table and get the nomination).

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2. 59

   ModernPubliusposted 16 years ago

   Huckabee wins Iowa ahead of Romney by 5%. McCain wins NH over Romney by at least 4%.
   
   I would proably agree on Edwards coming out of no where and winning Iowa, with Obama, not Hildog in a close second. Then I would say Hildog squeezes out a close one in NH, with Obama finishing second (3-5% ahead?)
   
   I'll let you know my final predictions on January 9th...

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3. 59

   College politicoposted 16 years ago

   Yea I think Publius has it right here... romney loses Iowa to Huckabee and thus loses momentum as well as New Hampshire (to McCain)

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4. 58

   Shafer in 2008posted 16 years ago

   in my official hub, i picked huck to beat mitt though.
   
   but boy was i wrong on the democrats caucus results though... looks like obama might defeat hillary.
   
   mccain wins the GOP though i think and has a good shot at beating back obama in november, but it will be tough. i wouldnt be surprised if obama beats mccain-- voters seem to be looking for something fresh and mccain being a veteran senator might not seem fresh enough for voters come election day. though obama's experience or lack thereof will hurt him especially against someone with the respected experience of john mccain.
   
   by the way, i think you can tell who i'm voting for.
   
   mccain-huckabee all the way to the White House.

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   1. 59

      College politicoposted 16 years agoin reply to this

      You've got the right guys just the wrong order... Huckabee/McCain

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5. 59

   ModernPubliusposted 16 years ago

   Any leading candidate straight from the religious right isn't going to win. The last thing the Republicans need is a baptist minister as the leading man on a Presidential ticket. Also, do you really think McCain would be VP? I doubt it. This is his last political hora.

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   1. 59

      College politicoposted 16 years agoin reply to this

      We will see how he does in states like new hampshire or michigan...

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6. 58

   Shafer in 2008posted 16 years ago

   who would be McCain's VP then?
   
   also huckabee's not campaigning anymore as a baptist minster, but as an effective governor of arkansas.

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7. 59

   ModernPubliusposted 16 years ago

   I'm still ok with Huckabee as a VP, I just think it would be a mistake for him to be the Presidential nomination.

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