10 Reasons why the Detroit Tigers will win the American League Championship
5410. Jim Leyland - anybody that knows Jim Leyland knows that he was not happy with the results of his club last year. They also know that he is the type of guy to take full blame for his team's mistakes and mishaps. After a trip to the World Series in 2006, injuries and inconsitency plagued his team all year long. The difference in the long run was how they played within their own division, the American League Central. The Tigers broke even at 36-36 against their division opponents, while the team that beat them out, the Cleveland Indians went 48-24 against those same clubs. If you take half of your overall wins against your closest competition, you're going to the playoffs. It's surprising the Tigers were as close as they were in the race, considering the Indians won 48 of their 96 games against their own division. Don't think for a second that Leyland isn't going to stress the importance of division games to his players. The Tigers have a little easier competition than they have had in the past. The Royals didn't get any better. They are still young and inexperienced and they got rid of their captain and best player, Mike Sweeney. The Twins also did not get any better, giving up maybe the best pitcher in the world, Johan Santana. They did receive a terrific young player with great speed in Carlos Gomez. He is exciting to watch, but one guy that's exciting to watch doesn't win championships. The White Sox are getting old. At least their best hitters are: Dye, Konerko, Thome. They did have two decent pickups in Orlando Cabrera, whom I had the pleasure of watching in Boston for a while. He is as good as there is at ss w/ a glove and is coming off his best season offensively. The other move was to get Nick Swisher, a switch hitter with great pop. He strikes out a lot, but walks a lot, too. He will hit for a higher average w/ better protection than he is used to and a lot less foul ground in Chicago's south side. If the wind is blowing out, I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit some Frank Thomas-esque bombs in the windy city. The Indians are still a good team. Hafner and Sizemore were a bit inconsistent last year, but will hit this year, especially if Ryan Garko becomes the power threat they think he can be. Much will depend on what kind of shape C.C. Sabathia shows up in. If he's under 280, he'll be fine. The only team that is noticably better on paper is the Detroit Tigers.
9. Justin Verlander - coming off a very strong sophomore year after a very strong freshman year (won Rookie of the Year), look for the Dutchman to get even better. His walk-to-strikeout ratio is impressive for a flame-thrower. I wouldn't be surprised to see him up that to 3:1. Maybe 200 Ks and 67 walks. His opponents' batting average may dip a little more as well. I can't see the league hitting much higher than .225 against him. Both of these stats will drop his ERA a bit, maybe to around 3.50. He does give up HRs, but he throws 100 mph. Nolan Ryan gave up a lot of HRs, too. He turned out okay. With the best lineup in recent history and a strong bullpen, Verlander could win 20 games or more, depending on his health.
8. Jeremy Bonderman - coming off a tough year, Bonderman looks to re-introduce himself to American League hitters. They will quickly remember his disgusting slider (which is only disgusting if you're trying to hit it) and good fastball. Look for him to bounce back in 2008. He was asked to do too much at a very young age. Now he will be able to pitch against many 3 and 4 starters from other teams. He is better than all of them. Bonderman could win 16 games with his eyes closed. Don't forget that he was not the only one who struggled on this team last year (Sheffield, Robertson, Rodney).
7. Curtis Granderson - not your typical leadoff guy, but you don't need one to win. This guy is a winner. He saves runs with his feet and glove and he scores them with his feet and bat. He has very good speed. Even though the Tigers don't run much, Granderson has one of the best hit-and-run and hit-behind-the-runner guys in the game in Placido Polanco. Nevermind Cabrera, Ordonez and Sheffield behind him to drive him in. Look for Granderson to K less and get on base more this year. He will learn how to be a bit of a better leadoff hitter. Lowered from 174 in '06 to 141 last year. But don't forget about Granderson's pop. He had 23 HRs and 23 triples to go with 38 doubles, giving him a power hitter's SLG% at .552. He plays in the best park in the majors to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. And with the lineup behind him, those quickly turn into runs. Granderson could easily have a .300 avg to go with 25 HRs, 20 triples and 40 doubles. Also look for him to swipe 30 bags and score 120 runs, while driving in 70. All he needs to do is up his OBP to .380.
6. Bullpen and Joel Zumaya - Fernando Rodney is coming off a disappointing year, battling injuries. But if you've ever seen this guy pitch, you can see how good his stuff is. Sometimes he gets a bit wild. Even though he throws upwards of 95 mph, his best pitch is his changeup. If you throw that hard and have a good change, it's hard not to be successful. Remember, Rodney did not have the luxury of a guy throwing 104 mph behind him for most of last year. He was put into a lot of tough situations because of this. Look for him to throw more innings this year, but in less stressful situations, which will show in his numbers. He should be the setup guy for Zumaya if all goes as planned. Also in the bullpen: Todd Jones, who was a closer early in his career and the last three years. He may be old and look like a walrus, but he gets people out. He has saved 40, 37, and 38 over the past three years, but if Zumaya is healthy he will be a middle-late relief guy, which he is fine with. This guy is a true professional. And the biggest transaction to the bullpen in the off-season is the healing of Joel Zumaya. If Joel Zumaya is healthy all year, he will become well known well quick. I've watched this guy pitch over the last two years. All I can say is holy s#*t. He throws between 100-102 mph consistently and has even reached 104 a few times. He is a bit wild, but if he gets ahead in the count, you will see some of the worst swings from the best players in the world. Oh yeah, he also has a pretty dirty slider and a changeup that is 90 mph. I still can't believe that someone can throw 104 mph, from the stretch. If he is healthy and closing all year, he could have 40 saves easy and close to 100 Ks. He may not get as many save opportunities as most closers due to his team scoring too many runs, which could help to save his arm for the playoffs.
5. Edgar Renteria - this guy can just flat out play. My only question: where do you put this guy in the lineup? He is a contact guy with a little pop and a great sense of the strike zone. I got to see Edgar at his absolute worst in 2005 with the Red Sox, making 30 errors and hitting inconsistently all year, but not once did he complain or make excuses. He just had an off year. I think he will strive in Detroit, and it will help to be around a bunch of Spanish speaking all-stars in Pudge, Cabrera, Guillen, Mags and most importantly, his old teammate and double play combo Placido Polanco. I would personally have him hit behind all the power because Polanco is harder to K and Renteria is a better run producer. Regardless, if your biggest worry is where to hit Renteria, you have a solid team. He is also a better fielder and has a better arm than Carlos Guillen. This will allow Guillen to play first and DH and in turn rest his bad right shoulder which would affect his hitting more from the left side. Great pickup - a leader and a great player.
4. Gary Sheffield - still has one of the most devestating swings the game has ever seen. He was hurt a couple times last year and started off with a very low average, but I had to watch him destroy my Red Sox time and time again with the Yankees for a few years. He's one of those guys you either love or hate, but when he comes to the plate, you hold your breath. If he is healthy, he is a lock every year for 30 HRs, 30 2Bs, 100 R and 100 RBI. And with two other guys in this lineup capable of the same output (Cabrera and Ordonez), you know Gary wants to come back and destroy the baseball this year. And he will be mostly DHing (which some guys like, some don't), which will allow him to concentrate on hitting. This also gives him a better opportunity of staying healthy at his age. A great leader and great teammate, Gary Sheffield will be back to full form in what will be one of his final, if not his final, seasons. I'm glad the Red Sox don't have to face him 70 ABs a year anymore. Oh, yeah (almost forgot), Shef really doesn't strikeout much for a power hitter who tries to hit the ball 900 feet on every swing.
3. Magglio Ordonez - if not for A-Rod's ridiculous April last year, Maggs is the AL MVP. He has the short-legged Manny Ramirez syndrome which isn't great for speed, but seems to be okay for plate coverage, which Maggs has plenty of. He hits the ball to all fields with power and the gaps in Detroit are his best friend. He probably won't hit .363 or have 54 doubles, but if there is one spot he may improve, it is with the long ball. He had 28 last year, but is capable of hitting 35. He destroyed left-handers last year (.410, 8 and 30 in just 122 ABs, w/ a .500 OBP and .713 SLG) and his division has plenty of those. Look for Magglio to have another great season from a very dependable player who averages 155 games a year.
2. Dontrelle Willis - the D-Train in D-Town. Changing leagues may actually help him this year. I realize he will have to pitch to DHs that can mash, rather than pitchers who are trash, but he has two big things going for him. A great lineup that can put up a five spot in a heartbeat and not too many of the clubs in the AL have faced Dontrelle. A pitcher has a clear advantage over a hitter who has faced him less than ten times. Dontrelle is especially hard to pick up, as he hides the ball well with his herky-jerky windup. Another plus - Pudge calling and cathcing pitches. Dontrelle is actually pretty quick to the plate from the set position and he and Pudge will be a hard tandem to run on. Coming off his worst year, look for him to have his best. With Renteria and Polanco turning two in the middle, look for D-Train to throw his sinker more than ever this year. If he misses up in the zone, he has Granderson in center to run down the fly balls in the gaps. His biggest key to winning games will be throwing strikes. He is very reliable, making almost every start and eating up innings. Between he, Bonderman and Verlander, they will pitch enough innings to save their bullpen arms. Dontrelle could win 5 games in April due to weather conditions, a huge field and hitters adjusting to his unorthodox style.
1. Miguel Cabrera - Miggy. They'll be saying that a lot this year in D-Town. As if all these other players weren't good enough to win the division, they go out and get the best righthand hitter not named Pujols or Guerrero. And he may be as good as either of them. He's not even 25 yet and he already has a ring and impressive numbers that get even more impressive every year. I know the yard in Detroit is big, but this may be the year that Miggy hits 40 bombs. He plays 155 games consistently and has hit 33 HRs twice and 34 last year. He had little if any protection in his years with the Marlins. Now he will have plenty. He will see pitches to hit. And hit them he will. Look for him to have his best season yet: .325, 40 HR, 130 RBI to go along w/ 40 2B, 100 R and a 1.000 OPS. If the people in D-Town have not seen this kid play, they are in for an absolute treat. The best hitter to arrive in Detroit since Al Kaline. And when you bring up your father's childhood hero, you know you're going back a ways. If he sticks around in the mitten state for a while, he will break all of Kaline's records. That's how good he is.
Obviously I have not mentioned a few very important guys, one named Ivan Rodriquez. I don't think I need to mention him, but I will. The consumate leader. Re-invented gunning down runners (the best since a guy named Bench) and snap throws to first. He has never been the best at blocking balls in the dirt, but he has the best arm behind the plate I have ever seen. And he handles the pitching staff very well, many of which are Spanish speaking. Another solid pickup is Jacque Jones. He had a bit of an off year power-wise in '07, but is a solid hitter and a solid fielder and teammates seem to like him wherever he goes. He can also play any of the three outfield positions at an above average clip.
I am a die-haahd Red Sox fan, but am not an idiot like Johnny Damon. I know a good team when I see one. My family is from Michigan (I was born there) and I think we may see a Boston-Detroit matchup in the playoffs for two sports (NBA and MLB). That would be terrific. Obviously I want my Celtics and my Sox to win it all, but if there's any teams I would want to beat mine, it would be the Tigers and the Pistons.
For two of my idols: my grandfather, Jack VanReenen, who is 80 something years old and still listens to Tigers games. And Ernie Harwell, whom I used to listen to broadcast Tigers games whenever I visited my grandparents in MI (and inspired me to become a broadcaster), thank you and I believe this may be your year.
Please check back in as I will give all my pre-season predicitons for every MLB team over the next few weeks.
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Comments
i wasn't numbering them in terms of order of importance. i can see how that would be misleading. i'm not sure the tigers have 3 starters better than dontrelle. verlander - yes. bonderman - maybe (numbers wise so far - absolutely not; stuff wise - yes). anyone else - absolutely not). stuff only gets you so far, especially giving up 100 earned runs every year. look at daniel cabrera. great stuff, but an absolute head case and will always be the guy that could have been "the guy". i'm not sure who else you may be thinking of.
dontrelle may win 20 again this year if he throws his sinker, instead of trying to throw it by everyone. the hardest pitch to hit is a fastball w/ movement. the second hardest is a changeup to follow up that fastball. dontrelle has the best sinker for a lefty starter in the majors and a very good slider.
you are probably thinking kenny rogers. he is a solid pitcher, especially going against #3's and 4's for most of his career. his win totals would not be bearly as high if he was facing aces or 2's his whole career. he, like david wells is a very solid pitcher, but like david wells, his numbers are misleading. they have both gotten as much run support as anyone to ever pitch the game. i remember years where rogers and wells both were getting 8-9 runs a game. it's hard to lose in those circumstances. nobody scores more runs on a consistent basis than the rangers and yankees, except the new-look tigers of late. since rogers only pitched 11 games last year and is going on 78 years old, he may have a tough time being the reliable, solid 3 or 4 starter that he has been hi whole career.
i admit, dontrelle got real good run support at the beginning of last year, and ended up having a disappointing season. he's not the first pitcher to have a disappointing season in florida. now he's on the best team in the AL and probably in the MLB. i know your mets are damn good, but they still have to sort out some issues.










DJ Funktual says:
2 years ago
I think Justin Verlander & Leyland should be higher and I think the Tigers have 3 starters better than Dontrelle