Now that American Idol is actually down to the "contenders", I'll break it down for you, one-by-one why none of them is gonna beat David Archuleta! Kidding. I'm actually thinking there's an upset in the making.

THESE ARE THE FUNKTUAL FACTS OF THE CASE.

1. The guys are suprisingly much much stronger than the girls.
2. Simon Cowell is irreplaceable if he leaves the show.
3. Paula's new video is great, the song she is singing is not.
4. It is not racist to laugh uncontrollably at Chikezie's name and wardrobe.
5. Every time I think Randy is a total tool he does something crazy cool like reference Leonard Cohen and Jeff Buckley.
6. Crossing genders and switching genres is definitely in this year.
7. The loss of Danny Noriega & Jason Yeager were both significant, because they have no idea how funny they really are.
8. Ryan Seacrest is very good at his job. Whatever that is.
9. The band is awesome this year! Who'da thunkit?
10. Every year a strong black contestant is voted off way too early and then Ryan looks in the camera and blames us.

A WORD FOR THE ALREADY DEPARTED

WEEK ONE BUMPOFF - 2/21

garrett haley most stoned contestant yet! aka Leif Frampton

colton, joanne and amy were so forgettable that I refuse to list their last names.

WEEK TWO RUBOUT - 2/28

alaina & alexandrea forgettablea. moving ona..

robbie carico Bo Bice, Chris Daughtry proved this type doesn't win.

jason yeager This Rick Astley-clone will soon be working at Disneyworld.

WEEK THREE EXECUTION - 3/6

danny noriega has probably already signed on for a reality show with Perez Hilton.

luke menard aka the married 29 yr old who sang Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go on live TV with a straight face. possible alien.

asia'h epperson this years Whitney Houston casualty. When will they learn. Same thing goes for Celine Dion (Simon) and Stevie Wonder via Randy Jackson's annual lecture "he is the greatest singer in the known world." I just wanna ask him how the singers are in the unknown world where they made him.

kady malloy haunts my dreams. She is the embodiment of what a Pop Star shouldn't be and therefore will have record contract and a shameless whore image in Wal-Mart stores by Christmas.

I will predict the first three to be voted off in no particular order since anyone can have a bad night / good night and I'll give you the odds.

Chikezie - dude, your name shoulda been ezie or ez. Simon doesn't know any R & B songs at all anyway! (100 TO 1)

Kristy Lee Cook - unless they do country themes every week here on out, she has no shot! The only hot one too. (75 to 1)

Ramiele Malubay - the cute one, too young though. (60 to 1)

These are the pretenders because we want to believe they have a shot but shut up and shut up right now because they don't.

Amanda Overmeyer - The Janis lovin rocker with the great voice doesn't look like she wants to be there now that she realizes she being judged by a guy who doesn't even know a Van Morrison classic like "Baby Please Don't Go". She wants to start touring and forget about this whole thing. The shape of her head / hair style is a topic of debate in households across the globe. (50 to 1)

David Hernandez - Fantastic voice! Zero charisma! Crooked Nose! See you on broadway, kid! Possible future star of American Idol - The Musical (40 to 1)

Carly Smithson - Stop it with your feigned shock, she has no shot. Two reasons: Bad Press and Bad Coincidence. Most people know she had a record contract and lost it when her record sales were a record low. AND the funny horrible cruel coincidence is that she is an exact doppelganger of the original American Idol Kelly Clarkson. She is definitely not gonna win because she is not American and is not Kelly Clarkson. I love the tattoos though. uh-huh. (25 to 1)

Post-Idol she could score on radio if she gets hooked up with the right producer say Timbaland or Mark Ronson

Michael Johns - I think this guy has a hell of a future on the radio as well. Too bad he's on the wrong musical reality show. This guy would have been perfect to become the new lead singer of INXS! Unfortunately though dawg, you are too old to be taken seriously on THIS show. The producers already made this mistake once before and TAYLOR HICKS proved to be a hack. It's American IDOL as in teen idol. Little girls will send you home way too soon, my talented friend. "Are you ready for a New Sensation"..? (20 to 1)

Syesha Mercado will be come in fifth place. See Funktual Fact Of the Case #10. (10 to 1)

Brooke White will only come in fourth this year because the talent level is so much higher. She probably would have beaten Katharine McPhee or Jordin Sparks and quite possibly Fantasia as well. It's a shame. She will be the next hyprid between Lisa Loeb and Edie Brickell. If she can write a song she could aspire to the next Natalie Merchant-Joni Mitchell type or on the othe hand, she could turn into Jewel. White girl, white hair, named White. Secret first name is really SNOW. I see the invisible chipmunks. (7 to 1)

David Cook is not related to Kristy Lee Cook or either of the other two David's on the show. He does however kick ass and has a future LIONEL RICHIE cover coming to radio stations near you. He gave that song back all the dignity it was robbed of by that stupid video with the blind girl. His version of "Hello" was so good it took me ten seconds to realize what it was. The first real threat. Hate the 'Killers' hairdo though. Hate it. (3 to 1)

David Archuleta is talented beyond our comprehension at this early stage. He understands the words he is singing far better than people who have been singing their whole lives professionally. He is great at changing up the cadence of a song and tries to make important statements with the songs he chooses. "Imagine" followed by "Another Day in Paradise" obvious examples of this. Simon Cowell knows all and always speaks the truth and warned him last night, don't get too serious about yourself. It's yours to lose but be careful. Song choice is his only flaw and somebody might exploit it and I think by now we all know who it is.

JASON CASTRO WILL DEFEAT THE FUTURE MULTI-GRAMMY AWARD WINNER David Archuleta by a single vote. And that vote is coming from yours truly, DJ Funktual.

This kid with the dreads just keeps picking the best songs every time out there. WHAT A DAY FOR A DAYDREAM and then HALLELUJAH both kicked my ass.

I was spellbound as soon as he started doing Jeff Buckley. In case you don't know about the late great Jeff Buckley who's picture is in the Rock-n-Roll Hall of Fame with a quote from Linda McCartney about how she and Paul thought Jeff had the best voice they ever heard. All I can tell you is if you don't have his album GRACE (pictured below) which features 'Hallelujah' as well classics 'So Real' and 'Last Goodbye' you are missing out on one of the rarest and most gifted of singer/songwriter's of our time. Jeff was taking a break while recording his second album when he drowned in a river he shouldn't have been swimming in. There are many books about him and his father Tim Buckley who was also a famous pseudo-folk singer who died mysteriously young. Jeff Buckley can't come back to life for those of us who love him so.

But I'm here to say that his spirit is alive and well in JASON CASTRO. There is something special about this kid I can feel it. His parents raised him right. He's got looks enough to keep it tight among the teenage voters. I'm not crazy about fake dreadlocks unless you are a true believer in the Rastafari religion but I'll make an exception. He might very well be with that stoney-shy look on his face. Regardless I think JASON CASTRO is gonna shock the world like The New York Giants did in The Super Bowl.

YEAH Yeah yeah I know the kid, Archuleta will probably still win but they said the same thing about the undefeated Patriots. Besides, I can dream can't I? ......"What a day for a daydream....."

If you enjoyed this Hub give me a thumbs up and comment if you got time.

UPDATE FRIDAY 3/28/08:

THE NUMBER ONE SONG ON ITUNES FOR THE LAST THREE WEEKS IS NONE OTHER THAN JEFF BUCKLEY'S VERSION OF HALLELUJAH. The awesome power of posthumous publicity. My HUB Must have Done It!!! ;0)

Okay, only 1 of the first three I picked was correct. Chikezie is gone! While the generic Kristy Lee carries in the name of redneck voters, the little girl (what'shername) is still around.

My first two pretenders are already gone though. Amanda the Joplin girl and David the gay dancer. Now we are down to NINE!

MY NEW RANKINGS VS. MY OLD RANKINGS

Wow what a difference three weeks makes! I had them in this order to finish

9) Kristy Lee Cook 8) Ramiele Malubay 7) Carly Smithson 6) Michael Johns 5) Syesha Mercado 4) Brooke White 3) David Cook 2) David Archuleta and Jason Castro as the WINNER.............well I've had three weeks to form a new list and here it is:

9) Kristy Lee 8) Ramiele 7) MJohns 6) Syesha 5) Brooke 4) David 3) Jason 2) Carly and the new favorite is no surprise....D-Cook!

So basically I'm saying that Carly is better than I thought and both of my finalists were a little premature. I'm not changing my picks I just don't know how right I was about Castro's desire to win.

UPDATE 4/17/08

HERE WE ARE WITH SIX WEEKS TO GO AND IT LOOKS LIKE I MIGHT KNOW WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT. NOW THAT KRISTY LEE COOK HAS FINALLY STOPPED THROWING OFF MY PREDICTION CURVE I CAN FOCUS ON MY SUCCESS!

MY FINAL SEVEN...I originally said six weeks ago...

1. Jason Castro
2. David Archuleta
3. David Cook
4. Brooke White
5. Syesha Mercado
6. Michael Johns
7. Carly Smithson

So if CARLY goes home next week I know I'm back on track and on a roll.

MY FINAL SIX at the first update 3 WEEKS AGO was

1. D-Cook
2. Carly
3. Jason
4. David
5. Brooke
6. Syesha

That faint sound you hear is me patting myself on the back. :0)

MY NEW SIX AT THIS MOMENT IS..

1. D-COOK
2. SYESHA
3. JASON
4. DAVID A
5. CARLY
6. BROOKE

I can't wait to see which me is right as we go down the stretch. For the record I'm not changing my original picks, I'm just giving my feel for it every three weeks because it changes.