A Near Miss

A few years ago, astronomy and science magazines heralded a great chance of doom for our planet when they cried out in horror about Apophis, an asteroid discovered in our solar system, which as it happens, will pass between earth and the moon in 2029. Initial forecasts gave it under a one-in-five-hundred chance of pummeling us with devastating effect on its second pass in 2036.

Now, re-calculations have calmed fears and it seems as though Apophis is an Apo-phizzle.

Much like Y2K...remember that? I am happy to say that I didn't fall for the hype and was not left embarrased after stowing away supplies for a nuclear winter.

But we all seem to love to find threats to earth or at least our civilization itself! Is this because if doomsday is coming, we feel as though we're vindicated in our positions and beliefs? What's going on?

The "Oh!" Zone

I have a theory about the Ozone Hole, the "Poster Phenomena" of global warming theorists. It's true that we are belching out tons of gases that pollute the atmosphere and perhaps change it. However, has anyone seriously considered the idea that the Ozone Hole has always been growing and shrinking as a normal function of earth's atmosphere? Maybe ozone hasn't ever covered our entire skies. We are fretting about observations we have only been able to make on our skies for 30 years. Experiements with atmospheric patterns show that gases spin away from from the poles due to centrifugal force. This might mean that on earth, there is a natural density shift from epoch to epoch in history.

Remember that we've been through several ice ages. This also means we have also been through several periods of extreme global warming. Perhaps if we had sophisticated instruments during those eras we would have noticed some familiar atmospheric trends, including an expanding ozone hole. Maybe 10,000 years from now, or descendants will be crying about a coming ice age. Hopefully by then we will understand more about the cycles of our planet. Our time of observing the universe has just begun, and so it will be a while before we can see our assumptions as true or false. We are still in our baby-stage, folks, compared with the huge history of earth.