Barack Obama and California Presidential Election History
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There is no shortage of words written about the presidential campaign of 2008. Whether your candidate won or lost it was an interesting campaign. This article is a look at how the state has voted in presidential elections since 1928. California is frequently looked at as a solid red state. What do the numbers say? How did Barack Obama do compared to other democratic candidates in the state?
California and the election winners
California has voted for the winner of the presidential election in all but four elections since 1928. In 1960, Richard Nixon narrowly won. Nixon won by slightly more than 35,000 votes. Gerald Ford defeated Jimmy Carter in California in 1976. Al Gore carried California in 2000 and John Kerry won in 2004.
Winning percentages
Barack Obama received almost 61% of the vote in California. That was the highest percentage for a democrat since 1936. Franklin Roosevelt received almost 67% of vote in 1936. The last republican to receive over 60% of the vote was in 1928. That year Herbert Hoover received almost 65% of the vote.
Losing percentages
The percentage of votes for John McCain totaled almost 37% of the vote. That was the lowest republican total since 1992. The lowest republican total was in 1932. Alf Landon polled less than 32% against FDR. The lowest democratic total during this period was in 1928.Al Smith received just over 34%.
Consecutive wins
The democrats currently have a streak of 5 wins in a row in California. This streak began with Bill Clinton in 1992. The Clinton victory ended a streak of 6 wins in a row for the republicans. Their streak ran from 1968 to 1988. The democrats also had a streak of 5 wins in a row from 1932 to 1948. There was also a three election win streak for the republicans from 1952 to 1960.
Winning with less than half the vote
The winning candidate in California has won 4 times with less than 50% of the vote since 1928. in 1948, Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey by about 18,000 votes. Henry Wallace polled almost 5% in California as a third party candidate in 1948. Twenty years later in 1968 Richard Nixon won California with almost 48% of the vote. George Wallace received almost 7% of the California vote in 1968. In 1976 Gerald Ford won with slightly more than 49% of the vote. A number of third party candidates polled around 3% of the 1976 vote in California. Bill Clinton was the last candidate to win California with less than 50% of the vote. In 1992, he received just over 46% of the vote. Ross Perot won over 20% with his independent run.
Early look at 2012
There have been three winning streaks in California that have ended since 1928. Consider the following information. The democrats carried California from 1932 to 1948. In 1944 they received around 56% of the vote and in 1948. it dropped to 48%. Then in 1952 they lost the state. This pattern was repeated again in the republican streak of 1952 to 1960. In 1956 they received 56% and dropped to 50% in 1960. They lost the state in 1964. The pattern was again repeated in the republican streak of 1968 to 1988. In 1984, they received 58% of the vote and dropped to 51% in 1988. Then they lost the state in 1992. If this pattern holds, the democrats appear to be safe in counting on a 2012 victory in California. The republicans can take some comfort in the thought that the democrats winning percentage probably will not increase from 61% in 2012. If the number drops maybe California will be in play for them in 2016.
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What party will win California in 2012
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