Campaign 2008: A Solution for Michigan and Florida
57So it has become painfully apparent that Michigan and Florida are going to come into play in the Democratic nomination contest. I have stated in previous hubs that the Democratic Party cannot refuse to seat delegates from two key battleground states at the Democratic National Convention in August. However, there is the problem that the candidates did not campaign in those states, thereby making any electoral result suspect in terms of reflecting the will of the voters. And that's to say nothing of the voters who stayed home because they were told that their votes would not count. No one can realistically make the case that those results can be counted as reflecting of the public will. So what is a party to do.
Well, here's my solution. I think Obama should offer the following compromise. Allow the Florida result to stand. Here's my reasoning. First, both Clinton and Obama were on the ballot in Florida. Neither campaigned. Now we all no that a non-campaign favors the candidate with the highest name recognition (Clinton), but at least the playing field was technically level, even if Clinton did have an advantage.
I don't believe that this gives Clinton and unfair advantage. The result in Florida was 50% for Clinton, 33% for Obama and 14% for Edwards. The proportional breakdown of the delegates does favor Clinton, but not nearly enough.
I think this is feasible in Florida for a couple of reasons. First, as I stated before, the playing field was basically level. Voters had the opportunity to choose Obama. Second, this was a product of legislation passed by a Republican legislature and signed by a Republican governor. The Democratic voters in Florida are blameless. The DNC gets some blame for falling into this sanctions trap in the first place, but not Florida's voters.
Blamelessness does not travel north to Michigan where the primary was moved by a split legislature and signed by a Democratic Governor. Likewise, the playing field was not level. Clinton stayed on the ballot while Obama, Edwards (who probably could have relied heavily on the labor vote) and company removed their names. The result in Michigan was as follows: Clinton 55%, Obama 40% with Dodd and Kucinich dividing the remaining 5%.
This is the contest that needs to be redone, either by another primary or by a caucus.The cost can be split four ways between the Clinton and Obama campaigns, the DNC and the Michigan Democratic party. Again, if Clinton still wins 55 - 40, she benefits, but not enough to overtake Obama in the pledged delegate count.
Having solved Michigan and Florida, we just move over to the question of superdelegates. And if Clinton still trails after including Florida and Michigan, the superdelegates will do the right thing for the party.
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Comments
Deep down, I want a revote in Florida, but I think that if Obama were to concede Florida in the interest of finding a solution for both states, it would show good will and confidence. When it comes down to it, after Puerto Rico (who could have guessed that?!!!), Obama will still have won more states, more popular votes, and will have maintained a wire to wire lead in pledged delegates. There are not enough super delegates audacious enough to overturn such a clear message from the voters.
I sure hope you're right. I was upset Obama did not win Texas so now I'm very cautious of Hillary, its scary how quickly everyone has crowned them with the "momentum". Hopefully Obama does well in Wyoming tomorrow. With it being a caucus Obama should fare well. It is very ironic, Michigan and Floridian voter might not count, but Puerto Rico somehow has 55 delegates which could be extremely critical.
I think if Obama can win in Pennsylvania then I'll feel comfortable conceding Florida. If he loses Penn. I think its going to be a long, bitter, hard fought 3 months. I think you're right about the Super's though, they will have the big picture in mind when they choose the nominee (hopefully).
I'd be surprised if PA has an open primary. Hmmm, that would be a good hub request question. That should eliminate the Limbaugh meddling. That does not really favor Obama in terms of the lack of independents. Still, Obama has six weeks to focus solely on PA. He could almost rent an apartment and register to vote. That kind of time tends to favor him, and I'm sure he's learned his lessons from Ohio. She dropped the NAFTA thing too close to the election for proper vetting by the news media. Now we know that it was her campaing reassuring the Canadians and her campaign that first sent out the "Muslim" email. Obama needs to go on the offensive with the truth, attack hard enough to control the news cycle and not be apologetic about attacking. His ability to do this has consisently been my main concern about his candidacy. I think he can do it, but now is the time, and if he does it right he can end this race and establish his fighting credentials for the general election.
Hi, yes I think that you're right florida and Michigan have to be respected because otherwise, it will not be a democratic election. the whole penalizing and early primaries were all ridiculous anyway. I know most people don't follow astrology, but i have written a hub that does take into account some peculiar factors. You might be interested.












jormins says:
2 years ago
I'm in agreement with you on Michigan but I think they need some sort of re-vote in Florida as well. If it comes down to the wire I think droves of Obama supporters would go crazy if Sen. Clinton wins by a few pledged delegates gained from the Florida vote. If Obama had been able to campaign in Florida he would have at least narrowed the gap, and possibly even won in Florida. I doubt it comes down to being that close in the end but you never know with the proportional delegate system and so many states left to go.
Another downside, with the Florida vote counting, Sen. Clinton is will use the popular vote if possible to sway Supers. She is down about 600k I believe without Florida, she nets 300k more votes than Obama if its allowed and she might then be behind in pledged delegates, but perhaps win the popular vote in the end, and sway Supers from that notion and wheel and deal her way into the nomination.
I do think the idea of splitting the costs 4 ways is the only plausible compromise to pay for it. It sucks for the Dem's as McCain will love all that $ spent on this and not campaigning against him, but it is the only way to save some face with this bad situation.