One see articles all the time touting China as the next America.  But, one would have to ask, can China ever be what America is today?  On the face of it, America and China are poles apart.  America is a democracy and an advertisement to what a democratic setup can achieve.  China, on the other hand, is a one-party ruled dictatorship.  The communists retain a firm grip over the daily lives of the Chinese people.  The differences between the two couldn't be starker.

However, when they talk about China as the potential "next America," I assume what they mean is a country that has the potential to become the sole superpower.  The view is gaining ground that America is a declining power and that the economic mess has accelerated that decline.  Well, I don't know if the present economic crisis would hasten that decline - I guess we just have to find out in due course.  One can say that the rise and decline of powers is inevitable and yes American power and influence would inevitably wane with time.  However, I don't think that a corresponding, definite rise in Chinese influence and power can be assumed as a consequence.

China has to have a lot of things going its way to realize its great-power ambitions.  The fact that China does not have democracy is both a boon and a curse.  Its a boon because decisions can be taken instantly and villages can be destroyed and agricultural land seized without free consent - to make way for modern cities.  Its a curse because such actions certainly don't make your citizens happy.

As long as the Chinese State provides them employment and a decent lifestyle, they would be happy and probably reconcile themselves to living under the dictatorship.  However, what would happen if the Chinese State can't offer them adequate employment and the people are idle with nothing to do?  All the energies of the Chinese communists are focused on not allowing this sort of situation to arise.

However, the current economic crisis is bound to test that vulnerability.  The Chinese economy has suffered a lot thus far due to the economic slowdown.  Being a primarily export-driven economy, China is more vulnerable than other Asian economies.  Analysts are predicting a significant drop in China's GDP numbers for this year and possibly the next year as well.  Already there have been reports of large number of Chinese losing their jobs and reports of workers' unrest in some quarters.  The fact that the global economy isn't going to recover anytime soon should be serious cause of concern for the Chinese communists.  For China to be a global superpower, it needs to keep its citizens happy and its employable populace employed.  For, if the Chinese communist lose grip of power, the whole setup might come crumbling down - as the erstwhile USSR.

The Chinese may also have potentially made a miscalculation in having the one-child policy.  While it has reduced population levels and eased the burden on the State, in some years' time, China could potentially have a shortfall in its workforce.  You'd have more elderly Chinese burdening the social support system and less Chinese youth to fill in job positions.  The dramatic rise of China in recent years has been fuelled by its abundance of cheap labor.  When the working population begins to decrease (some think this might happen as quickly as 5 to 10 years from now) - China would find it difficult to grow at the same spectacular pace that it has thus far.  International investors might not bet on China with as much enthusiasm as they do now.

By 2050, it is thought that ten Chinese workers would be supporting roughly seven Chinese elderly.  So, one option would be to coax the Chinese to retire later but the productivity standards would not be equitable between a younger worker and an elderly worker.  While most developed countries too face similar problems, the difference is that China is a growing economy - hence it cannot afford this demographic shift in its workforce.  This particular problem does not have a quick fix and the Chinese would take time to address it.

Ironically, China's ascendancy to superpower status would largely be determined by America.  This is so because America is the largest trading partner of China, and China's growth requires more Americans to buy Chinese products.  With America suffering economically right now, China is suffering just as bad.  The next 2 years would be hardest test yet for the Chinese from an internal security perspective.  Large scale unrests could potentially unravel the Chinese State.

So, can China be what America is today?  Well - economically and militarily, perhaps!!  But, there is more to America than just those things.  I think America is unique.  I don't think any other future world power can quite capture the American essence.  America has been a melting pot for various immigrants, it has been a liberal society.  American ideals of freedom, justice and equality make her unique.  For all her imperfections, America has led the world quite well.  The people who find fault with American policies today may yet reminisce about and long for these times - when they in fact experience a world in which China would be dominant superpower.