For many reasons I won't go into here, I have come to distrust the polls.

I know they are statistically indisputable, but nevertheless, I don't think they accurately reflect what is going on out there in the real world.

I have been following for many months two alterntitve sites.

One is based in Ireland. It's: http://www.intrade.com

One that site, people from all over the world can place real wagers on various propositions, including who is going to win the presidential election and many more.

They have been far more accurate than any of the polls we are spoon-fed by the MSM everyday.

The second site is run by the University of Iowa and is called Iowa Prediction Markets. Get their url with a quick search. They also permit real wagers from around the world. They started as a tool for the agriculture industry to predict future commodity prices and help them run their businesses. Now, Iowa Predictions also includes questions like the Presidential Race and other propositions to wager on. They too have an uncanny record of accurate predicitons.

I just checked www.InTrade.com. Here's their latest on the PresRace: Obama 64.1%, McCain 35.7%. That's the biggest margin I've seen since the race started. Remember, these numbers come from the actual money being bet, not from asking poll questions.

Just checked Iowa Prediciton Market. Obama 69.2%, McCain 31.7%. Also largest gap I've seen, also determined by actual wagers being made.

Check them out for yourself, this is not a partisan post...it's just very interesting, and something I've been following for many months.

MyBlog: http://ProteanPerspectives.blogspot.com