They don’t consume every waking hour of my life, but I do put significant effort into succeeding at my fantasy baseball leagues.  I play in several head-to-head leagues with competitive friends who possess a strong understanding of sabermetrics.  These are not easy people to beat at fantasy baseball, even if you know your stuff.  To win in these leagues, you need to do your homework and go the extra mile to stay competitive, before and during the season.

I admit I nearly take a full weekend to set my fantasy draft board.  I go over dozens of players at every position, all the projected regulars I believe will contribute to a winning fantasy team.  At each infield position, I will compose a list of 20-30 players and project what I believe they can accomplish in the forthcoming season.  For the outfield (if the positions aren’t itemized to LF, CF and RF), I will compose a list of 60-90 players.  I will compose a list of 80-120 starting pitchers and 20-30 closers.

How do I project these players?  I utilize a spreadsheet to create a convoluted system for projecting the player’s at bats, hits, doubles, triples, home runs, walks and stolen bases.  On a base spreadsheet I create a formula that averages out three lines of this data:  the player’s previous regular season numbers, the numbers from the season prior (if applicable) and the numbers from the 2nd half of the previous season.  I double count the 2nd half because the player’s performance down the stretch can indicate how the player will perform next season, especially in the case of last year’s rookies.  With 2nd year players, I will either count the 2nd half three times or count 80% of that player’s minor league numbers if he played extensively in AAA in lieu of numbers from two seasons ago.

I use various multiplying factors to come up with an estimate of the player’s production over a certain number of at-bats, which I determine usually with an eyeball projection based on previous seasons and what role the player appears slated to have this season.  A player who had 340 at bats last season, for example, may have come in during midseason or split time with another player… and could have a full time role this year, so I may slate him for 550 at bats.  Of course, if a player’s had 600-610 at bats every year for the last three seasons, I’ll obviously slate that player for another 600 at bats.

I admit there is a lot of subjective, educated guesstimating in determining a player’s productivity.  I simply do my best to stay up to date on each player’s track record, and where that player stands coming into spring training.  When applicable, I’ll use that information to slide my projections one way or another.  I may not rate a hitter that is competing for a role and may not be assured a spot in the lineup.  I also may not rate ‘risk hitters’, kids that are making a big jump from the minors to the majors due to their team being shorthanded at the top, or aging players that are trying to play through lingering injury problems.  I’ll leave it to other fantasy players to take their chances with these risks.  Sure, some of them pan out big time, but many don’t.

After every hitter is rated in every position, I will research the projected drafting slot for each player.  Yahoo makes this easy by ranking every player, though in other leagues concerted research may be required.  From there, you simply take the player’s ranking, divide by the number of teams in your league and round up to project which round that player should get drafted in.  Using my spreadsheet, this draft position and the player’s OPS or Fielding Independent ERA, I will convolute a rating number that will project the player’s value relative to his draft position.  This will show me the player’s relative worth compared to his generally perceived worth.  A guy who is typically drafted in the 3rd round but is a middle of the road hitter will get a low number, while a projected 15th round pick that I project will put up top-shelf numbers will have a massive number.

From there, I sort every player by projected drafting round, then by the Quotient I just devised.  This will give me a strong guide of who to focus on.  I will also look throughout each round and try to hone in on different factors, such as top players at given positions and where they’ll be available.  I won’t necessarily try to map out a draft strategy, but once the draft begins, this order will tell me which available players are worth picking.

At first, I pick the best available players and essentially try to fill out a lineup card and pitching staff with each pick.  As the draft progresses and most of the top remaining players are in positions I’ve filled, I will cherry pick similarly ranked guys in positions I need to fill.  If I see in a later round I still need to fill a given position, I can focus on the top available players at that spot and see where I can expect to draft them.  If a guy I prefer expects to last another couple rounds, I will draft another, more valuable player at a different spot in the current round.  But if he’s one of the top available players, I’m taking that guy immediately.

Once every spot is procured, I will look for modular players: competent hitters who can play several positions and a useful starting pitcher, to fill out my bench.  An OF player is fine as long as the league gives you three OF slots instead of specifying LF, CF and RF.  But generally, I’ll take a lesser SS/2B/3B than a superior SS because I can start the SS/2B/3B guy at different positions.  Same with a 1B/3B guy over a 3B, or a 1B/OF player over a better hitting OF player.  I generally don’t consider the Utility spot a free spot to get a top hitter, and will instead try to allocate the field positions as best I can for the week before dumping the best leftover player in the Util spot.  In fact, I flat out ignore Jim Thome and Travis Hafner, which Yahoo will list as Utility only, due to their lack of lineup modularity.  You can’t play them anywhere other than the Utility slot, which takes away from your ability to use the slot for a leftover player you want in the lineup.  I’m looking for guys that offer me flexibility with the lineup, or who are so consistently productive that I won’t want to bench them ever.

Basically, after all that research, I end up playing the draft by ear, but with my sorted spreadsheet, it’s a very educated ear.

And that’s just the draft.  This never minds the countless roster shifts I make on a daily basis to play the best lineup possible, or the litany of trades and waiver wire moves I make during the season, as players wash out and new, young players step up.  Plus, in more shallow leagues, the waiver wires are rife with solid, productive players that can easily supplant an injured or unproductive starter.