Fantasy Football NFL Team by Team Analysis

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By macknife


NFL Team Fantasy Football Previews

This page is dedicated to going through each NFL team's key fantasy football offensive situations, news, forecasts and expectations. We start with a link to the fantasy football team analysis provided by ESPN, and then do a brief highlight snippet of the most important parts of these articles and add my own Fantasy Football Wizard expert analysis and thoughts on top of each. Here you go:

And I was going to put all the team reviews up on this one page, but the site seemed to be choking on things (must be all the super cool graphics) so I'll be splitting up the team review alphabetically (this will work better for comments as well so we can get discussion streams going on just certain groups of NFL teams...

This is A through D and the others pages are set up as links at the bottom


Arizona Cardinals - NFL

Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Scott Engel's Arizona Cardinals article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2919235

"The 2006 season was yet another in a long line of disappointing campaigns for the Arizona Cardinals, and the impact was felt in the fantasy production of the team's top players. Newcomer Edgerrin James frustrated fantasy owners more than ever as he sputtered through his first season in the desert. Injury problems cut into the overall production of Larry Fitzgerald and although Anquan Boldin played well overall, he caught only four touchdown passes. The Matt Leinart era began, with erratic results. Rarely did things go right under coach Dennis Green, but now there is some renewed hope for a team that seems to have been jinxed ever since it moved from St. Louis, if not longer. New coach Ken Whisenhunt brings a much-needed new outlook with him from Pittsburgh, and he will try to establish more balance on offense..."

The absolute key here to me is the timely demise of head coach Dennis Green. I do not know any reason people hire this guy as a head coach. He is destructive to the team in every way - especially from a fantasy perspective. So - now that my antiDennis rant is done - lets get back to the future. This team is loaded from a fantasy player standpoint and I expect big things on several fronts...

Key offensive additions

Head coach Ken Whisenhunt

Assistant head coach/offensive line coach Russ Grimm

As I just mentioned - Ding Dong Green is Gone! Whisenhut has a lot of potential here and hiring Russ Grimm should help hugely with the teams biggest offensive weakness - the Offensive Line!

Key position details

Quarterbacks

"Leinart initially was ticketed to sit behind Warner last season, but he was pushed into the starting job by October and immediately showed a lot of promise. Leinart threw four touchdown passes and just one interception in his first two starts, but then he delivered up-and-down play the rest of the season. Leinart is confident and accurate, but he wasn't always able to get comfortable behind a shaky offensive line. Yet he still showed a lot of potential and should be more dependable in 2007. With improved protection and better support from his running game, plus excellent weaponry at wide receiver, Leinart should take some clear steps forward in the coming season. You should be able to rotate him effectively with another quality option at quarterback..."

Last fantasy season I liked the combo platter of drafting Leinart and Warner but unfortunately that strategy did not take into account the full Denny Green ineptness level. This year I like Leinart even beyond the level here as rotating in based on match ups. Yes, there are some questions (O-line, lack of run support), but a skilled QB with thos WR weapons and a team that will need to score and should have a new creative offense! I'm excited - draft Leinart as early as you need to to make him your backup QB and hold onto your hat as plays his way into your lineup week in and week out.

Running backs

"James was supposed to be a long-awaited savior in Arizona, but he was thwarted too often behind shoddy blocking. He was often less of a factor than he used to be in Indianapolis because the Cardinals played from behind more often. It took 337 carries for James to rush for 1,159 yards, and he didn't crack the 100-yard mark until Week 13. He also was used much less to catch passes, with his total of 217 yards the second-lowest of his career. Whisenhunt is expected to put a major emphasis on improving the running game in 2007, and new offensive line coach Russ Grimm will be dedicated to getting maximum production out of a new-look line. James certainly won't be close to the elite fantasy player he was with the Colts, but with an emphasis on regaining respectability offensively, he should be more statistically reliable and produce well enough to be a solid No. 2 fantasy running back..."

I pretty much agree with this assessment. Edge went way too high last year and as a result some owners will avoid him this year with the bad taste he left in their mouth. I think the offensive line and the Edge's lack of extra effort last year make him sort of a risky pick, but probably not as a #2 back for you.

Wide receivers

"Fitzgerald can be one of fantasy football's truly elite receivers. He's a big, quick target with a knack for making the big play and regular catches in the red zone. After Fitzgerald caught 18 touchdown passes in his first two NFL seasons, hamstring problems caused him to miss three games and threw him off his game for a short stretch. He bounced back to score four times in December and should be one of the top wideouts selected in most fantasy drafts this year. Expect him to return to top-level status in 2007. Boldin, who has been an injury concern in the past, played a full schedule last season and battled hard for every ball thrown his way. Often double-covered, especially in the red zone, he still managed to average a career-best 14.5 yards per catch and get more than 1,200 receiving yards. Boldin should get open more often for touchdown receptions this season, and his production should be on par with Fitzgerald's over a full season again..."

Gotta love these two young emerging studs! The only question is who will have the better fantasy season. I really like Larry Fitzgerald and think this is the year he becomes a top fantasy WR!

Tight ends

"Leonard Pope is a huge target, but he was invisible as a rookie. He struggled to get open last year and was not reliable as a blocker..."

Last year Pope got a lot of play as a late round sleeper and he really was the invisible man for the season. I would avoid the Arizona TE and since everyone else will as well, if one somehow emerges than you can make a waiver move, but I think there will be little production here.

Kickers

"Neil Rackers was the ultimate fantasy kicker in 2005, but he wasn't quite as outstanding in '06. He wasn't nearly as effective from beyond 50 yards, and he missed nine attempts overall, after missing only twice the year before. Still, Rackers should be very dependable even if he isn't quite the fantasy superstar he was two seasons ago. He should continue to stack up a healthy amount of attempts this year as the offense puts him into scoring position on a frequent basis. He also will be playing his home games indoors. Rackers still should be one of the first few kickers selected in any fantasy league this year..."

I hope you were not one of the many unwise guys who drafted Rackers sooo early last year. He's a good kicker and I think he will have a decent top 10 kicker season, but maybe not one of the top two (or if so, it should be pretty later in the draft). I do like the new inside option for him, but it's not like he had faced a lot of tough wind or weather in AZ last season so I would say bump up his #s over last year as he slumped due to Denny Green too, but don't go too overboard on him just yet as an elite stud at kicker.

Bottom line

"The Cardinals have two of the best young wide receivers in the NFL, and both will post numbers worthy of No. 1 fantasy starters at their position as long as they avoid any major injuries. Leinart will continue to improve and should be very productive when the matchup is right. Use him judiciously, and he should serve you well. James can be drafted with confidence as your second fantasy running back, and he's going to get a lot of work again because Whisenhunt plans to feature the running game much more than the Cardinals did last year..."

Good bottom line analysis - I think this is a team that could have some fantasy movement this year. I like most of their O - i.e. I think Leinart may be around the 10th best stat QB by year end, two really good WRs - but I am worried about their ability to run the ball and think that their D is another year away from being good enough to make this a competitive team.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Altanta Falcons NFL

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Eric Karabell's Atlanta Falcons article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2919236

"The theory used to be the Atlanta Falcons would go only as far as Michael Vick would take them, but the 2006 season proved that even when Vick plays well statistically, this franchise has other issues. Offensively, Vick ended up with his best fantasy season since 2002, stats fantasy owners crave, but on the field the gaudy numbers didn't produce victories as the team ended up with a sub-.500 record. Vick was mentioned on the show plenty this offseason, as his name surfaced in a dogfighting investigation. The attention Vick received overshadowed the team bringing in a new coaching staff, backup quarterback and signature wide receiver..."

I'm concerned about the Atlanta Falconsand Michael Vick and the real world and in the Fantasy Football world. I'll focus only on the fantasy football side of things here. Another new coach (one who's offense I really love but ont that may need to adjust some to the NFL), not much new for key talent, and so overall I think Falcons players should all be dropped on your board a few nothces. Take them if they are bargain values, avoid overspending.

UPDATE----------ALTHOUGH AS YOU CAN SEE I WAS ALREADY PRETTY SOUR ON M VICK. i HAVE TO JUST ADD NOW THAT OBVIOUSLY THIS HAS REALLY BECOME A PROBLEM AND VICK IS NOW COMPLETELY WORTHLESS FOR FANTAST FOOTBALL AND ALL OTHER PLAYERS HERE HAVE TO TAKE A BIT OF A HIT (EXCEPT FOR JOEY HARRINGTON WHO WILL NOW PERFORM POORLY IN ANOTHER STARTING QB ROLE - AS OF RGIHT NOW i WOULD PASS ON DRAFTING HIM STILL)

Key Offensive Additions

Head coach Bobby Petrino

WR Joe Horn

Key Offensive Positions

Quarterbacks

"Falcons fans can complain their quarterback doesn't win enough games, doesn't involve others in the offense, he has no arm and he's a distraction off the field, but statistically, Vick ended up as the No. 4 quarterback in all of fantasy football last season..."

Wow watch out for Eric Karabell is all I can say - he's the one submitting fabrications like this as news reviews to places like ESPN. This guy just does not really know what he is talking about. In how many leagues was Vick the number 4 QB last year? Not in mine, not even in the top 10. He was #12 on average in my leagues. Vick would only be in the top 5 if running yardage is a HUGE scoring factor in your league (and if it is then you may want to consider him) All in all though this is pure propaganda and don't believe the hype. Even without Vick's off the field problems, I would have avoided him as a top 5 QB in any league I'm in. So invest wisely and let some greater fool draft Vick early.

Running Backs

"Like Vick, Warrick Dunn gets little credit for his accomplishments, but he just concluded his third straight 1,000-yard rushing campaign -- the fifth of his career -- and he's likely to top the 10,000-yard career mark by Thanksgiving. Still, he scored only nine times the past two seasons, and does much of his best work in the first month of the season. It's clear, at age 32, he's running out of time to be an every-down back. Jerious Norwood will likely be drafted ahead of Dunn in many leagues this fall, even if there's little indication an official passing of the torch has occurred..."

Ok is this guy some sort of Falconette or something. I had Dunn on one of my teams and it was a huge waste for me. Here again, I say these are both good backs, but probably not good for your Fantasy team. The one caveat is that with the new head coach, maybe one of these two will emerge in preseason as a key factor of the new offense, so worth watching in preseason, but my expectation is little value here.

Wide Receivers

"What does Joe Horn have in common with Price and Lelie and other veteran wide receivers brought in to be Vick's No. 1 wide receiver? Well, the other guys failed, and at 35 Horn is now a broken-down veteran and three years from relevant fantasy statistics, so he is likely doomed to the same fate as his predecessors..."

Finally, now you are talking. I love Joe Horn, one of my alltime favorite fantasy receivers, but I dont like this situation for him. He's old, he's become an injury risk, his QB is vert innacurate, his offense is untested in the NFL. I hope he does great, but I'm not betting a pick on it. I say avoid picking all Falcons unless they slide below expected draft spots. Vicks favorite target has proven to NOT be a WR...

Tight Ends

"Alge Crumpler continues to be one of fantasy's more underrated tight end options, having averaged more than 55 receptions, 800 yards and six touchdowns the past three seasons..."

Agree here as well. Crumpler is never the sexy TE pick, but he has been productive and will probably continue to be a good safe TE pick for you if you miss the top spot there.

Kickers

"Does it really matter? The Falcons continue to go through place kickers like wide receivers, and get no increase in production..."

I would say the Atlanta Kicker is only worth drafting as a back up kicker, but, if it seems like the new offense can click at all, there are some pluses here, so if we know who wins the job before draft day, and the college offense looks effective, Atlanta's schedule and dome factors mean it is worth taking a late flyer here.

Bottom Line

"The Falcons can't help but be an exciting team, and there's clearly enough talent to be a contender. Look for Vick to again be a fantasy force, a highlight reel most weeks who ends up just fine statistically. Norwood should increase his value as the season goes on. All receivers not named Alge will likely disappoint...."

Sorry, I'm not sure this team can contend given all that has been going on, and the human highlight reel is not a top fantsay QB.

UPDATE: AGAIN SEE MY INFO ABOVE, I FEEL LIKE ALL THIS JUST RINGS MUCH MORE OBVIOUSLY TRUE TODAY THEN ID DID WHEN I ORIGINALLY WROTE IT.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Baltimore Ravens NFL

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Christopher Harris's Baltimore Ravens article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2919239

Baltimore Ravens Fantasy Football Preview

"For as much flack as Steve McNair takes from fantasy owners, he was better than I expected in 2006. Then again, somebody down in the Chesapeake area once said something about the "soft bigotry of low expectations," and when you're getting praised for notleaving multiple games on a stretcher, maybe you shouldn't throw a party. Uber-injured McNair had to leave only two games in '06 (against Carolina and Cleveland), never missed a start and led Baltimore to a 13-3 record and an AFC North crown..."

I'm sorry Mr Christopher Harris (fantasy expert for so many sports who wrote this article) - perhaps baseball is your realm of influence because most of this article says nothing about who/what/when/where from a fantasy football prognostication standpoint. I would sum it up like this for the Ravens fantasy-wise - Last year the defense rocked (but may be over rated this year due to the loss of Thomas), McNair played well (but has little fantasy relevance and I would expect the same this season), Jamal Lewis was terrible (running behind the best OLine in football) so I expect good things from McGahee...

Key Offensive Additions

RB Willis McGahee

QB Troy Smith

Key Offensive Position Notes

Quarterbacks

"Boller has spit the bit enough as a starter that the Ravens know they'll be in serious trouble if McNair gets seriously injured, but as a backup, he's quite good. In the two games in which he logged significant snaps, he was 30-for-52 for 464 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. Keep an eye on Heisman winner Troy Smith, too."

Ahh again what does this have to do with fantasy football? Boller is irrelevant, McNair is worthy of being the last backup QB picked in most drafts, and Troy Smith is the future (nothing now). How's that for a real synopsis?

Running Backs

"Musa Smith looked better than Jamal Lewis in his 36 carries last year (he averaged 4.3 yards per tote), and would likely be the Ravens' choice of lead dog should McGahee get injured in '07. (At this point, Mike Anderson is more of a fullback type.) Smith also caught 22 passes for 135 yards in '06, and while he doesn't fit the typical profile of a third-down back (he's 6-foot, 232 pounds), neither does anyone else on this team, so he could find himself on the field in long-yardage situations. He's probably not a must-handcuff to McGahee owners, though..."

Ok the question here in FANTASY FOOTBALL is how valuable is McGahee? Never mentioned here by the brilliant Christopher Harris. I would draft him, would like to have him, but this team has shown so little flash on offense of late, that I think he may get drafted sooner than he should - I'm not comfortable having McGahee be my #1 pick in a draft (hello Jamal Lewis burn anyone?) He is a good #2 back depending on who else is out there.

Wide Receivers

"Because Mason and Clayton are smaller starting receivers, a guy like Demetrius Williams makes an interesting deep-league play, because he's a bigger guy the Ravens seem to trust in the red zone. Williams caught two scores in his rookie year (including, to be fair, a 77-yarder from Boller)..."

Demetrius Williams? come on man - get real (no I take that back don't get real, get fantasy! please base your fantasy football article on fantasy football! - that's all - keep it simple. Mason and Clayton are good WRs but I'm not liking anything here enough to land it unless I miss out on some sort of huge WR run and better options are eaten up.

Tight Ends

"Daniel Wilcox is another red-zone guy the Ravens use when they run two-tight-end sets. In 2006, he caught 20 passes, three of which went for touchdowns. Of course, because he plays in Baltimore, any value he might have is severely limited by the presence of Todd Heap..."

Heap is always intriguing and overpicked too early in the draft. Look for value elsewhere unless all of your league reads this and waits on him - then jump in late and hope for the best.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Buffalo Bills NFL

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Scott Engel's Buffalo Bills article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2919636

"The Bills showed some signs of promise on offense in 2006, while they battled a tough schedule. Young quarterback JP Losman finally started to build on his considerable potential, and wide receiver Lee Evans had an outstanding season, despite not getting much help from the rest of the Buffalo wideouts. Yet after winning only seven games, the Bills continued to rework the team's look during the offseason. Rookie running back Marshawn Lynch will be more versatile than the departed Willis McGahee. There's a definite movement towards youth in Buffalo and that means another losing season, but there will still be good sources of fantasy production.."

Key Offensive Additions

RB Marshawn Lynch

Key Offensive Position Notes

Quarterbacks

"Craig Nall is a highly-regarded backup with a strong arm, but he has never shown what he can do at the pro level and his inexperience would be a hindrance if he is ever pressed into action. Rookie Trent Edwards will be the eventual successor to Losman, if the current starter doesn't ultimately blossom as expected. The Bills like his mobility and intangibles despite concerns about durability..."

Since you at least mentioned Lossman above I'll give you a pass on providing no info here to help the fantasy football junkies. Think about drafting Trent Edwards in the 2009 draft if Lossman does not pan out, but for not please focus on Lossman. Again, I think it's an interesting season for him.

Running Backs

"Thomas will share some playing time with Lynch initially, but once the rookie shows he can handle a considerable load, the A-train will be relegated to a reserve role. Thomas is an adequate north-south runner who can get the job done inside and post decent fantasy totals when he is pressed into regular service..."

Lots of reasons not to draft a Bills RB. Good rookie (who is unproven here and will take some time to develop), much weaker defense (so they will be playing from behind and chucking the ball), not too great a team with a tough schedule (so see above note about chucking the ball)

Wide Receivers

Although he is certainly a threat to score on a deep ball every now and then, Roscoe Parrish is too small to be regularly effective as a pass-catcher. Parrish can be explosive if he gets loose in the open field, but he can be easily neutralized by physical coverages and gets lost in traffic. Josh Reed will make some key catches for Losman, but he disappears for extended stretches and will never be useful in fantasy leagues..."

Dont like either of these guys - I think Lee Evans may be emerging and may be a draft day steal for you though, so hopefully these guys can prevent too many double teams on Mr. Evans.

Tight Ends

Sorry nothing work talking about here - I should chop it all more often moving forward to cut down on reader time for you all...

Bottom Line

"Buffalo will be more stable overall on offense this season, as the running game becomes an increased strength. Expect Lynch to get better as the season progresses and have a lot of success working behind Dockery and Peters on the left side, as well as catching the ball. The evolution of Losman will continue, and Evans will have the best season of his career so far because of that. The defense will force Buffalo to play catch-up at times, and Losman will still struggle against some stronger opponents..."

This article goes on to say that Evans is on the verge of becoming a fantasy superstar. That's really the only point here I agree with. I think he is overselling Lynch as a rookie RB on a pretty week all around team. Lindell is a very accurate kicker, but the offense doesn't put him in scoring position consistently enough. I'm intriguid by Lossman this year as I think he will need to be good to keep this team in any games this season (but he has a pretty weak cast of characters outside of Evans). I love Evans and think he may be just the right guy to plug on to my teams at WR as he is unlikely to make a lot of fantasy managers salivate enough to make his draft position equal his production.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Carolina Panthers NFL

Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Tristan H. Cockcroft's fantasy football Carolina Panthers article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2920621

"Few teams were as disappointing as the Panthers in 2006. After making it all the way to the conference championship the year before, the team slipped to 8-8 and were a fringe playoff contender, which actually masked the fact that the offense fell far short of expectations....Ultimately Carolina only offered fantasy owners one truly useful commodity: star receiver Steve Smith..."

Can not argue with this although even Steve Smith did not have a great year (top 5 or 6 WR in most scoring systems but not in the top 3 most likely which is most likely where he got drafted). I look forward to seeing how a "Bill Belichick disciple" does with the reigns of this team that still does have a lot of talent - except as noted below

Key Offensive Additions

QB David Carr

Offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson

Key Offensive Position Notes

Quarterbacks

"Carr is a player who has completed more than 60 percent of his passes -- 68.3 in 2006 -- for a much worse team than this three years straight. His arrival will allow the team to keep Delhomme on a much shorter leash than it did with Chris Weinke backing him up, and this could quickly turn into a must-handcuff situation..."

I do not like this situation. I believe they did get Carr to give him a shot and he does have some decent skills, so I think rather than the handcuff recommended here, I would knock both QBs down in the ratings and look elsewhere unless things change in the preseason (and the only change that I think would be a good one would be Carr being given the #1 job - otherwise, Jake on a short leash does little for fantasy fun fun fun

Running Backs

"You can't find running back battle that is tougher to gauge than this one. If Davidson's new zone-blocking scheme pays dividends, as many Panthers players are already predicting in early workouts, there might not be a more important battle to track in the preseason. Williams is the high-upside player, and as a result the more intriguing fantasy pick, but weren't we all saying the same thing about him last season? Foster, meanwhile, brings the experience but also a checkered injury history. The smart money has the two sharing carries for the second consecutive season, albeit with more success in the Davidson era..."

This is a shame for Fantasy Football Owners - a promising running team with two good looking backs. I agree it is worthy of close monitoring and I think Williams may bust out.

Wide Receivers

"Johnson's departure might create an interesting sleeper opportunity for whoever starts opposite Smith, but any fantasy appeal there should be met with at least as much concern that no one steps up and Smith winds up facing frequent double-teams..."

I think there are several interesting things to watch here including the above mention of the #2 starter, but also how the receivers mesh with Carr if he takes on a starting role. Steve Smith is an amazing receiver, so I would draft him no lower than the 8th WR regardless of what happens - but am not sure he is top 5 at this point for fantasy production. I would not move on anything else here.

Tight Ends

"Jeff King could see an expanded role in the passing game with Kris Mangum's departure, perhaps even pressing Gaines as Delhomme's preferred target at the position..."

Not going to draft a TE for Carolina - but without Keyshawn, will a tall target emerge on the goaline or will Smith still be the man? Not really worthy of attention yet at this point.

Bottom Line

"As has been the case for four straight years, the Panthers should again be a playoff contender, even if it's only in a "fringe" capacity. That's not a bad thing to be for fantasy, though, especially not come our playoff time...Smith is a fantasy stud/potential first-rounder, Delhomme can be reliable enough to start, and there's a decent share of upside in both the running backs and the defense.

As I said above, I love Steve Smith's skills, but this year NOT a first rounder. I do not like Delhomme as reliable either. One key thing missed here in the bottom line though is Kasay. He's one of the best kickers in the league and since the offense should improve this year with new coaching, I expect him to have a pretty strong year - since he was around 20th best kicker last year, you can probably get a good steal here on someone I expect to be much more consistent and in the top 10 for Kickers.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Chicago Bears NFL

Chicago Bears Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Scott Engel's Chicago Bears Fantays Football article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2919238

"The Bears won the NFC championship last season, but their top offensive players didn't help too many fantasy owners win their league titles. Rex Grossman was a boom-or-bust option at quarterback, and even though Bernard Berrian was a scoring threat at times, he was not fully reliable. Mushin Muhammad is no longer a top fantasy wide receiver and the team's top offensive player for fantasy purposes, Thomas Jones, is now gone. Cedric Benson now gets his chance to play regularly, but can he make the most of the opportunity?..."

Scott Engel is the best fantasy football writer on this beat. The more I read the more I like, or maybe it's also that all the others seem pretty poor. At any rate, the Bears defense carried some fantasy teams last year with all those return TDs, Rex Grossman mae some Fantasy GMs look like geniuses in the early going, but ended up the season mostly on the bench for owners and Cedric Benson now inherits a really great opportunity to excel, but can he? I think he can!

Key Offensive Additions

None

Key Offensive Position Notes

Quarterbacks

"You never knew which Rex Grossman was going to show up in any given week in 2006, and his erratic play drove his fantasy owners crazy. He opened the season by throwing 10 touchdown passes with only three interceptions in his first five games. From there, Grossman became the ultimate up-and-down quarterback. He had five outings in which he threw three or more interceptions, a pair of three-touchdown performances, and a three-game stretch from Weeks 14 through 16 in which he threw five touchdowns with no picks...."

I agree no doubt avoid Grossman as your starter, but since I doubt anyone likes this guy in the fantasy world this year, he may be worth a late flyer as your back up. I tend to think more that we may see Griese as the starter here at some point though, so will probably avoid drafting Grossman at all. I think the Bears expect Griese to start.

Running Backs

"Cedric Benson will now get to show fantasy players whether he was truly worth a No. 4 overall selection in the 2005 NFL draft. Benson was a workhorse in college at Texas, and many experts think he can truly flourish with regular carries instead of trying to make the most of shared time as he tried to do last year. Benson showed some promise late in 2006 with three touchdown runs in Weeks 12 through 15 and a 109-yard rushing performance in the season finale...Adrian Peterson is a tough, scrappy type who will get a few spot carries per week and can post decent fantasy totals if he is needed to start at any point..."

They did let Thomas Jones move on, so they must believe in Cedric Benson as a full time back. Who am I to argue. This is a good RB situation, and I think Benson will have a good year. If you add up Jones and Benson last year you get something around the 8th best RB probably (at least in my leagues), so I think projecting him around the 10th best RB seems around right. I would not want him as my #1 RB though so maybe I'll go with him around the 12th spot.

Wide Receivers

"Bernard Berrian was a pleasant surprise early last year, with four touchdown receptions and four outings of 70 or more receiving yards in Chicago's first five games. Rib problems, though, derailed his progress, and he slowed down in the second half and only caught two scoring passes the rest of the year. Berrian, however, rebounded to total 190 receiving yards and two touchdowns in two NFC playoff games, and can perform even better over the full season in 2007 if he stays healthy..."

I can not get excited about any Chicago WR given their QB, their conservative style of play and the lack of a real #1 option (is Bernard Berrian really that great?). I would draft Bernard and maybe even Mushin - but I know I wont land them because they will be down some pegs on my board (maybe Devon Hester starts to get some offensive touches too).

Tight Ends

"Desmond Clark may remain atop the depth chart because of his blocking prowess, but he will likely get phased out as a preferred receiving option for Grossman on key passing downs and in the red zone. Rookie Greg Olsen will be worked in as a new, integral part of the passing game..."

I have been hearing nothing but positives from all sources in Chicago about Olsen who has already signed now and could become a great option. I say avoid Clark, and if the word does not get out about Olsen and he can be drafted as a later round flyer, go for it! Grossman or Griese will need a reliable Red Zone target!

Kickers

"Robbie Gould was a great fantasy surprise in 2006, leading all NFL kickers with 143 points..."

Great story and more proof that paying attention is more important than drafting all the right guys. He was a waiver wire add on for most leagues and turned out to be the #1 kicker! I think he is likely to do well again, but like all kickers, not that likely to repeat as #1, so I would take him, but I'm probably not picking the first kicker off the board.

Bottom Line

"The Bears are certain to be one of the top teams in the NFC again, with a hopefully strong and reliable running game taking some more pressure off Grossman this year. The defense and special teams should continue to help the offense by protecting leads and gaining optimum field position very often... Berrian still should have his best season yet. Benson and Berrian can be key performers during your fantasy playoffs if they can avoid any serious injuries this year. The defense/special teams won't be fantasy football's top unit, but it will still be one of the best..."

I'm not so sure the Bears will do as well this year. They did not really improve much and lost a key coach. The D and the Kicker will both be strong, but will probably get picked too early as the first at their respective positions, and I am not in love with Berrian so I say think about Benson (as potential upside value) and Olsen (as a potential last round flyer).

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Cincinnati Bengales NFL

Bengals Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Ken Daub's Bengals Fantasy Football article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2923762

"Going into the 2006 season, the biggest question the Cincinnati Bengals faced was the performance of quarterback Carson Palmer in his return from a devastating knee injury in the '05 playoffs. As it turned out, he was one of the few skill players that exceeded expectations last season. Instead, the downward turn Cincinnati made can be attributed to a lack of maturity and/or veteran leadership. In the offseason, Bengals players continued to disappoint. Since the beginning of 2007, no fewer than seven Bengals have had run-ins with law enforcement. Normally, this wouldn't be of concern on a fantasy level, but if this course doesn't change dramatically -- and soon -- there's a distinct possibility that wholesale changes will be made on the Bengals roster, which would destabilize both the team's offensive and defensive units..."

I don't see much fantasy impact here with the off the field issues (other than don't draft a suspended player like Henry). This team is loaded with offensive talent and just like I said last year, the person that this bodes the best for is Carson Palmer! So expect big things there again, as for the real world, I hope they do clean up the act and I'm not sure how good the Bengals will be this year due to the distractions/weird reputation stuff.

Key Offensive Additions

none

Key Offensive Position Notes

Quarterbacks

"Carson Palmer is a young, prototypical drop-back passer. He's a top-three quarterback with two excellent weapons at wide receiver. Expecting a 4,000-yard, 28-TD campaign is well within reason. He's a steal in the third round, but you may need to invest a second-round selection in order to obtain his services..."

I agree all around you will need to draft him early, and he will have a good year. Is it worth it? Depends on who else is on the board, I would tend to lean towards no (unless QBs are really critical in your leagues scoring system) - better to look for more value elsewhere - like Palmer was last year

Running Backs

"Rudi Johnson was a borderline No. 1 running back entering the 2006 NFL season, and he earned that level last season despite averaging only 3.8 yards per carry. Expect Johnson to be the backfield workhorse again as he is likely to receive over 350 combined touches...Perhaps completely fed up with the oft-injured Chris Perry, the Bengals selected Kenny Irons in the NFL draft to provide additional depth in the backfield. Once expected to be among the top running backs selected, Irons fell in part because his numbers at the combine disappointed many scouts. He remains a powerful runner and has the potential to be a solid short-yardage back, so he's worth a late-round flier in deep keeper leagues as he contends to be Rudi Johnson's primary backup..."

Rudi never gets any respect - including from me. I think he's a good back, consistent and would not mind him at all on my team BUT what about these other RBs they invest in and the TD stealing they can do from Rudi (also have J Johnson who gets a few carries)

Wide Receivers

"While being faster than a racehorse and being able to leap short defenders in a single bound might draw comparisons to Superman on normal Sundays, Chad Johnson almost completely disappeared during the fantasy playoffs last year. It was an aberration, not the rule. Ocho-cinco (or quatre-vingts cinq in France or Quebec) is an elite wide receiver and should be drafted as such. He's going to be one of the best draft-day values around. If he's there for you in the middle or end of the second round, take him and don't look back...The only things standing between T.J. Houshmandzadeh and stardom are his inability to stay healthy enough to play all 16 games and the fact that no one can spell his name. On a per-game basis, Houshmandzadeh outscored Chad Johnson last season. Although he's smaller than Johnson, he's actually more effective in the red zone. Grabbing Houshmandzadeh during the run of second-tier wideouts is encouraged...

I expect both of these WRs to beat last year's numbers. And think his draft spots are pretty accurate - the loss of Henry will mean more from these two - so get one or the other and reap the rewards.

Tight Ends

Ignore this TE spot

Kickers

"If the owners of your league are intelligent, they won't be spending an early pick on a kicker. Shayne Graham is one of several kickers you should consider near the end of your draft. The Bengals' offense will put up its fair share of points, which is the basic recipe for success for any kicker..."

Good analysis - wait I've said that a few times here, perhaps another strong writer is emerging for ESPN fantasy football - nice work by the talented Mr. Roto overall.

Bottom Line

"It may seem like a lot of things have to go right for the Bengals to be successful on offense, but it's really not that much. They need their star players to play like stars. If they each can, the Bengals will be a very solid, if not dangerous, team. If you are still in doubt at which outcome you think is more likely, look at the de facto captain, the quarterback, and think of what he did last year coming back from a devastating knee injury. Then you will realize that Carson Palmer won't let this team fail again."

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Cleveland Browns

Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Scott Engel's Cleveland Browns Fantasy Football preview article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2919237

"The offensive overhaul begins in earnest this season in Cleveland, as general manager Phil Savage and coach Romeo Crennel try to salvage their jobs. Savage was aggressive in free agency and the draft, especially in the latter process, as he came through with two possible franchise cornerstones in the first round... It's up to Crennel to help the Browns regain respectability. If he can't, he could be out by next year. Cleveland also brought in a new offensive coordinator, former San Diego tight ends coach Rob Chudzinski, and with a new regime, there is hope that the Browns can improve offensively. There's almost nowhere to go but up, as Cleveland ranked 31st in the NFL in yards per game in 2006. This still won't be an above-average team to draw from for fantasy purposes, yet there is hope for the passing game and the possibility of solid rushing production..."

I'm pulling for the Browns to start to develop some wins and some stars on offense, but I worry that Romeo just may not cut it as a head coach and while I love their drafting skills and their focus on improving the O-Line, I'm not convinced that this year will be a good one for fantasy production - maybe 2008!

Key Offensive Skill Player Additions

RB Jamal Lewis

Quarterbacks

"During recent organized team activities, Crennel said Derek Anderson had the early edge in the competition for the starting job because of his experience. Yet Frye is erratic and very mistake-prone and doesn't perform well under pressure, and it's just a matter of time before he drops on the depth chart, whether it be in training camp or during the season. Anderson, who filled in for an injured Frye late in the 2006 season and showed off a good arm, is certainly in the picture as well. Anderson's decision-making skills are shaky, and he isn't an ideal NFL starter. Brady Quinnshould take over the starting job at some point in 2007...Quinn should be the only Cleveland quarterback worth a draft pick in fantasy leagues, with a pick in the final rounds.

If you are in a keeper league or a league with tons of bench space I would agree on taking a last round shot at drafting Quinn. Otherwise hold off - no sure thing to see any starts, and may take all of his first year's games to get to being good. I like him next year. They do have good receivers and Winslow is due for a strong year, but a three-headed QB monster going into camp is a BIG concern.

Running backs

"Jamal Lewis used to be infamous for stomping the Browns during his best years as a Raven, yet now he has come on board to help them try to turn things around. Lewis, who signed a one-year deal with Cleveland, will be out to prove he isn't quite finished even though his better years are clearly behind him. Lewis can't explode through the line or run away from defenders the way he used to during his glory days. He is still a quality inside runner who will work hard for the tough yards, though, and he can be productive near the goal line. Lewis scored nine times in 2006 and, behind an improved Cleveland offensive line, he should give fantasy owners a respectable combination of yardage and touchdowns. Lewis is no fantasy superstar anymore, but he can be a quality No. 2 starter at running back and will improve a ground attack that ranked 31st in the NFL in 2006..."

A little too much blind optimism here. Lewis looked really all done last year on a team with a strong O-Line, so why expect him to do better know - even with what will be a strong O-Line? I would draft him, but not as my #2 back (sorry).

Wide receivers

"Braylon Edwards certainly has the potential to be a fantasy star. He and Quinn could be a very formidable passing combination for years to come. New wide receivers coach Wes Chandler will work closely with Edwards in an effort to help him realize his full potential. If Chandler can keep Edwards' perceived attitude problems in check, the young Cleveland wideout could have a true breakthrough season in 2007...Jurevicius is always an injury concern and is better-suited to being a third receiver. He caught only three touchdown passes last year...Travis Wilson, a big, quick target, could be the third receiver and is a player to watch for the future.

I like this stable of wideouts and the excitement of Wes Chandler turning Edwards into a real break out star - I just think the QB chemistry will need to be developed first, so think next year brings elite WR potential.

Tight ends

"Kellen Winslow is on the mend after microfracture knee surgery, and all his well-chronicled health issues at the beginning of his NFL career ultimately might prevent him from being a truly explosive player...last season he played through pain and led all NFL tight ends with 89 receptions. If he can open the season in good health and avoid any major injuries, Winslow should battle hard enough to improve on his total of only three touchdown receptions in 2006. Once Quinn takes over at quarterback, Winslow should be a much more effective weapon in the red zone...

3 things to consider here - 1 - Winslow does seem really due to have a healthy season (but man was it frustrating last year even wondering each week as he was listed as Questionable if he would play or not), 2 - Winslow will be a great red zone crutch for any of the three QBs at the reigns 3 - The new Offensive Coordinator was a TE coach at San Diego - how exciting is that to consider as he should work some cool schemes for the TE here (and Winslow is no slouch compared to the skills of Antonio Gates). So yes, I may get burned again, but I like this situation.

Kicker

"Phil Dawson should get back to the 100-point mark. Still, Dawson won't be anything more than a bye-week filler at best..."

I agree, really not worth a fantasy draft call out.

Bottom line

"The Browns simply want to become more competitive in 2007, and although the defense likely won't be greatly improved, you should see some notable strides made on offense. Quinn will be interesting to watch for fantasy purposes, and he can help Edwards continue to rise while also beginning a quality on-field relationship with Winslow. Cleveland is not going to contend for a playoff spot, but the Browns should start to look better as the year progresses, and they could be much more stable on offense late in the season as the team looks toward 2008."

I like Winslow as a potentially good value TE pick who could perform near the top of the position (a position that has not been worth going after the top 1 or 2 in recent years)

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Dallas Cowboys NFL

The Cowboys Star
The Cowboys Star

Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Eric Karabel's Dallsa Cowboy Fantasy Football Preview article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2920811

"Fans were plenty excited heading into 2006, as the acquisition of TO would be one of the final pieces of the puzzle. Veteran quarterback Bledsoe would be firing deep passes to TO all day. Speedy Julius Jones would make things easier for Bledsoe by opening up the running game. And in those close playoff games, we'd all see the most accurate kicker of all time, former Colt Mike Vanderjagt, knock in the game-winners as Dallas would return to the Supe ... wow, what a strange trip that was! Was the only constant on this team really Terrell Owens...

Good humor to this summary, but not I think he's not focused on how important the coaching regime change is here. I am not a Wade "Little Bum" Phillips fan so I think there is a lot of fantasy questions here...

Key Offensive Additions

Just a back up QB in old Brad Johnson and an old OL of Leonard Davis (would be nice to see him emerge under new leadership!)

Key Skill Position Summaries/Expectations

Quarterbacks

"Romo didn't play like a rookie last season, even though it was his first time taking snaps in an NFL game. Years of holding the clipboard helped, and now, at age 27, fantasy owners might consider him a blooming star. Figure that 19 touchdowns in 11 starts are impressive, plus Romo made quite a statement in front of your family and friends in that five-touchdown Thanksgiving Day game. This will all likely get Romo overrated in a fantasy draft. While Romo might have delivered 4,000 passing yards with a full season of starts, he also threw critical interceptions, even in December, when Dallas lost three of its final four and Romo had six touchdowns to match the six interceptions. Let's assume he's no longer needed to hold on kicks, which could ease his mind a bit after the wild-card game disaster, but the offensive line remains older than most, and Romo's main threat on offense could disappear just as easily as he can dominate. Dallas brought in a veteran presence in Johnson who knows it's not a battle, so that could help the younger QB..."

Romo was great on my fantasy roster last year, until I needed him at the end of the season. I love his potential, and he could be an emerging star, but I also think he will be drafted too high this year for someone with his risk reward level.

Running Backs

"There's little question which running back fantasy owners would rather see handle the ball on a consistent basis, but there's no indication Barber will get more carries than Jones at this point. This really isn't a platoon in the normal sense. Consider that, to use NBA terms, Jones is the one handling the ball up court, then Barber is the guy who dunks it. Both guys are young and seem hungry, but it will be difficult in fantasy to draft them both, since each is a top-30 running back option..."

Another tough situation to predict. I would not expect Wade to go with anything similar to the Tuna's offensive game plan, so Barber being a TD machine again is very questionable, of course he could also be given the shot at all RB duties. I just think Jones will be given more a shot by the new coaching and has a decent chance at turning into a good value pick this year (but wait and see how this looks in preseason).

Wide Receivers

"Even though a finger injury probably hindered his production and a carton of stickum might be warranted for his league-leading total of drops, Owens remains the focus of an opposing team's defense, and extremely productive. This was actually good news for the forgotten Terry Glenn, who had a quiet 1,000-yard season, though he didn't appear to be real happy as the No. 2 option. Winning should change that. Crayton remains a solid No. 3 receiver, especially in the short passing game, and didn't drop a pass all season..."

I'm still amazed that TO could not catch the ball last year. If healthy he should correct that. There are likely a few owners who like his chances and will draft him too early - ignoring the risk, but if not, he is worth taking a shot on if he drops on the board at all.

Tight Ends

"Fantasy owners thought the change from Bledsoe to Romo would harm the production of Jason Witten, with the theory being the new signal-caller would look deep more often. In actuality, Witten didn't do much statistically with either guy, managed only one touchdown all year and seems farther away from his breakout 2004 campaign than ever..."

One TD Witten? What a huge bust for an expected solid starting fantasy Tight End last year. Again, the new coach may change this, but with all the WR talent I would not guarantee it. Again, watch the preseason to see if the offense favors any TE catches and if so, take a late round chance on someone that could emerge as a starter.

Bottom Line

"Quite a few Cowboys will have their names called early in fantasy drafts, with Owens and Barber likely spotted for third-round status at least, and Jones, Romo, Glenn and Witten ending up as fantasy starters chosen in the first eight or 10 rounds as well. While Owens remains a fantasy star statistically, don't forget what happened in the second year of his last stint with an NFC East team with visions of Super Bowls in its head. All these Dallas offensive players could be a bit overrated based on where they play, but would it surprise anyone if infighting breaks things apart? The division schedule doesn't make things easier. Don't expect 10 wins from this team, as this team has double-digit wins only one time since 1998, but the Cowboys should be contenders, which keeps their fantasy values alive until the new year..."

I agree that most of the Cowboys look overated, but how can you write a bottom line, and not discuss the coaching change? As I said, I don't really like Wade as he is just another retreaded loser that Jones can probably manipulate to run the strings. On the other hand, this team does have talent, so there is some upside. My choice is, barring anything BIG changing in the preseason to avoid all these guys (even the kicker) unless they fall below their expected draft spots and are thereby worth a flyer.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Denver Broncos NFL

Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Scott Engel's Denver Broncos article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2924801

"After failing to make the postseason in 2006, the Broncos refused to stand pat and were aggressive in free agency. The acquisition of running back Travis Henry was the top move from the fantasy perspective. The team also made notable additions to improve defensively, through veteran pickups and the draft. The Broncos will blend experience and youth on both sides of the ball."

Key Offensive Additions

RB Travis Henry

TE Daniel Graham

WR Brandon Stokely

Key Offensive Losses

QB Jake Plummer

RB Tatum Bell

Key Positions

Quarterbacks

"As expected, the Broncos jettisoned Plummer, and Patrick Ramsey was brought in as Cutler's new backup. Ramsey will fit well in the role, as he won't push Cutler for playing time, yet he can step in and be effective if needed..."

Right on the money here as this year's situation looks GREAT for Jay Cutler. If he remains healthy he will have a monster fantasy year with really good weapons, really good offensive scheme and a team that is well poised for a playoff run

Running Backs

"Mike Bell was a pleasant surprise as a rookie in 2006. After going undrafted, he became a quality fantasy option and the preferred goal-line runner for Mike Shanahan. The acquisition of Henry, though, will push Bell into a secondary role, and he will be useful only as a late-round handcuff pick to Henry in fantasy leagues. Mike Bell was able to earn extensive playing time last year because Tatum Bell could not be trusted. The Broncos acquired Henry to stabilize the position instead of using more than one runner to get the job done. You won't see a timeshare in a backfield that has annoyed fantasy owners so many times in the past...."

This statement reads much more like a sportswriter's than a fantasy footballer's to me. Shanahan has been way too consistent in the Running Back By Committee approach over the years with so many different backs of late, that to think that Travis Henry is going to change all this and have a great year seems like too much of a fairy tale to me. Mike Bell had a strong season and will now be one more year wiser so why expect him to just languish in a nothing role now? No way, not with wild eye Mike calling the shots! I think Travis Henry is way over valued right now. He may prove me wrong, he is a good back, but I don't think he is the 2nd coming of Terrell Davis! and I can foresee split carries with Bell and Henry

Wide Receivers

"Smith has enjoyed an illustrious career, and fantasy leaguers have enjoyed his production in the past. After totaling only 512 receiving yards and three scores in 2006, Smith is ready to drop on the depth chart. Brandon Marshall might have to earn the No. 2 receiver job officially in the preseason, but he is ready to overtake Smith. At 6-foot-4, 222 pounds, Marshall is a big target, and he has great touchdown potential. He's a top fantasy sleeper. At 37 years old, Smith will be useful to Cutler as a possession receiver on key downs, but he is in the twilight of his career. Marshall is clearly on the come and will have some breakthrough performances in 2007...."

This is one of the most interesting WR situations to keep a keen eye on in the preseason. Cutler is still feeling his way around and if he locks on to a "go to" receiver that he can really rely on - especially in the redzone - watch out! At this point I would say that Javon Walker is the most likely top choice based on his Cutler chemistry, but I do love the sound of that Brandon Marshall redzone target size/hands combination. So watch this one in the preseason and stay tuned as Marshall may be a GREAT sleeper!

Tight Ends

"Daniel Graham is a superb blocker who will improve the running game, but he was also underutilized as a pass-catcher in New England. Graham signed with Denver knowing he will be a bigger factor in the passing game, and he's a terrific late-round value pick..."

I don't really buy into this one either, Graham is a great blocker and can catch some nice TD passes, but again unless he really shows some chemistry with Cutler, I would not expect much from him and would think this deep TE talent pool they have may end up splitting time

Bottom Line

"The Broncos will strike a lot of fear into opposing defenses, even with a second-year quarterback. The defense will be up and down, forcing the offense into a healthy number of shootouts. Fantasy owners won't complain about Shanahan anymore, as Henry will have one of the best seasons of his career. The Broncos will deliver fine fantasy numbers deep into the season as they make a push for the playoffs..."

I absolutely agree with all of this bottomline especially the fine fantasy numbers in total for a team that looks good for a playoff run, EXCEPT for the "Fantasy Owners won't complain about Shanahan part"! This is still a big risk in my eyes, so my two cautions here are:

1 - Dreaded RBBC potential

2 - May be a lot of offensive weapons and Cutler may start to spread the ball around too much if he and Shanahan take a liking to the Tom Brady New England Patriots model here

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Detriot Lions NFL

Motor City Lions
Motor City Lions

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Christopher Harris's Detroit Lions Fantasy Football article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2918716

"Boy, didn't those Lions show some promise in 2006? Roy Williams took a huge leap forward to become a top-10 wide receiver, Mike Furrey came out of nowhere to post his first 1,000-yard season...Jon Kitna and Mike Martz teamed to finally focus an explosive aerial attack and ... the team won three games."

Talk about a team with a low bar for success. People think well of a 3 win season. Kitna says they will win 10 games this year, and ESPN reports that they could since they lost so many close ones last year. Sorry, still not a playoff team but an 8 win season would be considered a great success here and is in reach.

Key Offensive Additions

Tatum Bell (RB)

Calvin Johnson (WR)

Key Offensive Position Notes

Quarterbacks

"The Lions drafted local product Drew Stanton, a big-armed, semi-successful Michigan State product who won't start any time soon. In fact, Stanton is likely to sit behind Dan Orlovskyon the Lions' depth chart, and considering Kitna took every snap for the Lions last year, that means the rookie who some (not me) consider the future of the franchise won't see the field unless something really bad happens in 2007..."

Certainly some things to like about Kitna this year. More weapons, more running backs, more Mike Martz offense, and he started every game last year and has nobody at all ready to press him for the job here. I like him, think he will be a bargain come draft day and would swoop on him in your draft assuming he is there for you as an early back up QB pick.

Running Backs

" Running back Kevin Jones tore up his foot last season, and almost certainly won't be ready to go at the beginning of 2007, and neither will second-year man Brian Calhoun, so Tatum Bell will be the lead back, with assists from T.J. Duckett, Shawn Bryson and maybe Aveion Cason..."

Wow a crowded back field for a team that is not likely to lead the league in rushing. I think that someone could emerge here and be a serviceable fill in fantasy RB for you, but who? Not worth stressing over at this point, but personally I'm curious if TJ will show off any skills in the preseason and make him worth a last round flyer? Or if he heals well (not expecting this) Kevin Jones could come on for you when it matters.

Wide Receivers

"One-for-three ain't bad, right Mr. Millen? Charles Rogers and Mike Williams are gone, but Roy Williams has definitely panned out. The battle to play opposite Williams will involve Johnson and Furrey, but Martz likes three-receiver sets enough that both guys should be useful on fantasy teams..."

Short and sweet here, I don't like Martz ability as a head coach, but he can run an efficient offense with a lot of good WRs. They now are loaded with talent and I think Roy Williams will have a monster year here and be Kitna's go to guy when he needs it (read redzone), but Calvin Johnson might be so good that we get them both into the top ten and keep Roy Williams from being a real top 3 guy. I say draft either around their mock rankings and expect good things, but keep in mind that the guy who may really benefit here is Kitna.

Tight Ends

"The Lions were 27th in the NFL targeting tight ends in the red zone. So Campbell is a questionable fantasy bet at best.."

Avoid

Bottom Line

"I'm sorry, I know a lot of people out there view Kitna as a top-10 fantasy quarterback this year, but I'm not one of them. Yes, he'll get ample opportunity (he chucked it almost 600 times last year, second-most in the league behind Brett Favre, yes he finished fourth in passing yards (4,208) and threw for 21 scores. But he also threw 22 picks and lost an incredible nine fumbles. Martz almost never max-protects; he'll send a jillion guys on routes and cross his fingers that his quarterback can think fast enough to throw before getting hammered. Considering Kitna was sacked a league-high 63 times last year (the next-closest victim was nailed 49 times), let's go out on a limb and assume he may just not be that quick a thinker..."

I love to read this 1st sentence as I agree I would not want him as my top 10 starter QB, but I like to see others discount him because if I can grab him as my early back up QB option (depending on who else is out there), I think I could steal a strong performer!

"At running back, I've already hinted at the problem: It's likely that no single guy will do enough work to be a real fantasy threat. If Jones begins the year hobbled, Bell will carry it between the 20s and Duckett will be the red zone guy. Once Jones is back, Duckett could still be the short guy. At this point I'd probably have to rate Bell a few spots ahead of Jones on my cheat sheet, but that could change in training camp. Jones is the only guy I'd consider starting on my fantasy team, and only if he's shockingly healthy..."

Too true - Jones and Duckett maybe worth picking, but this is too murky to get excited about.

"Receiver is the position at which the Lions have obvious value. Roy Williams deserves to be a top-10 wideout, and is knocking on the top five. He amassed 1,310 yards receiving in 2006 to go with seven scores. Calvin Johnson's presence potentially takes away a few touchdowns, or at least limits the possibility that Williams will suddenly vault into 14-touchdown territory, but make no mistake: Williams is still the man to whom the Lions will throw. He was eighth in the NFL in targets last year, and that number isn't going down. Furrey and Johnson will both be top-30 wideouts as well, because this is a poor defense and a turnover-prone quarterback playing for Mike Martz: a recipe for 40 to 50 passes per game. Furrey caught an NFC-high 98 balls in 2006, and although that number will go down, he's still the main possession receiver. The big variable is Johnson. Is he Randy Moss? Can he post a 17-touchdown season, despite the presence of two very successful veterans at his position, which is what Moss did his rookie year with Cris Carter and Jake Reed around. Probably not: Only six rookie receivers have topped 1,000 yards in the past decade. Still, he's a freak with great hands and he's a smart kid. He'll start for a ton of fantasy teams right away..."

Pretty similar to what I said above -the question for me really is how smart is Calvin Johnson - as in how quickly can he pick up the Martz offense, because if he is slow like many others have been, he may not emerge at all this year, but if he is sharp, his skills could make him starting caliber in fantasy football right away - stay tuned for more.

I'd love to hear your thoughts/reactions to this analysis!

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