Fantasy Football Team By Team Analysis - Part 3

70
rate or flag this page

By macknife

Fantasy Football Expert Team by Team Analysis M through N

Continuation of my expert team by team look through the NFL teams from a fantasy perspective regarding key fantasy football offensive situations, news, forecasts and expectations. We start with a link to the fantasy football team analysis provided by ESPN, and then do a brief highlight snippet of the most important parts of these articles and add my own Fantasy Football Wizard expert analysis and thoughts on top of each.

Teams M (Miami Dolphins) through N (New York Jets)

With links at the bottom to the rest of the teams alphabetically


The Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Outlook

Certain logos I just love - and the angry dolphin is among them!
Certain logos I just love - and the angry dolphin is among them!

Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Eric Karabell's Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Outlook article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2940604


"Certain eras last a while in pro sports. Dolphins fans know this well, having enjoyed the entire career of Marino, and much of Don Shula's legendary coaching capabilities. But those days of Hall of Fame eras appear long gone for a franchise that had a mere two losing seasons from 1970-2004. That's a pretty good run. Last year, however, was pretty bad, as the team lost more games than it won for the second time in three years. The Culpepper era in South Florida went poorly and quickly, to say the least, and now it's history. The Nick Saban era was supposed to last a lot longer than two seasons and feature multiple playoff berths, but it didn't. And the Ricky Williams era, well, who knows when that will end, if it hasn't already... "

Interesting historical walk down The Fins history, but nothing even mentioning how they look now let alone any fantasy info! Might as well post an analysis of Mercury Morris vs. Larry Csonka and how that was the first RBBC situation - lets see if he perks up with any actual info before I chime in my opinions...

Key Offensive Skill Player Additions

QB Trent Green

Coach Cam Cameron

Key Offensive Position Fantasy Outllooks

Quarterback

"Where Culpepper goes from here is anyone's guess, but it's clear he won't be in Miami. Fantasy owners should remember Culpepper for the good times, and boy, they were good. The year Manning went off and broke the record for touchdown passes, Culpepper still topped him in fantasy points. New Dolphins starting quarterback Trent Green never had or will have the mobility Culpepper once possessed, and Green's health is certainly in some question as well, but he's the guy for 2007. The Dolphins selected their signal-caller for the future on draft day, but it wasn't Quinn, it was John Beck...Fantasy owners found it painful to have Green on their last year. Annually an underrated option that one could draft in the middle rounds and count on for 4,000 passing yards, Green suffered a concussion in the Chiefs' opener against Cincinnati and was never the same...The Fins think something's still there, but fantasy owners would be wise not expect 4,000 yards or consistent production. Just because Culpepper and his gimpy knee were sacked on seemingly every play doesn't officially mean the O-line was brutal, or that Green is in grave danger. Cleo Lemon is the backup, and in two years Beck should be ready to start. It would be a shame if Green gets hurt again, and either Lemon is forced into action or Beck, seen as a mature 25-year-old, is rushed. Then again, the team's passing leaders since the Marino retired have been Joey Harrington, Gus Frerotte, A.J. Feeley and Jay Fiedler. Green could be a hero, quickly..."

Sorry man, still not very helpful for Fantasy purposes. Here's my take - new coach with NFL offensive mindset is a big plus, lack of good O-line, injury history are minuses, and to me the biggest minus of all is that we are talking about Trent Green here! He's not great, he's not mobile, he's just ok, so I don't expect a big year. I love the Cleo Lemon name and would love to call it out someday on draft day - obviously not this year though.

Running backs

"Brown topped the 1,000-yard mark, but considering his status as a late-first rounder in most drafts, that wasn't enough to satiate fantasy footballers. Brown missed three games with a broken hand and wasn't exactly blessed with the best offensive line or appropriate quarterback play to start with. Brown has a total of 10 touchdowns in his two seasons, and fantasy owners are expecting that production in 2007 alone...Brown, once again, has the gig to himself at running back -- in theory. But he didn't take advantage of Ricky Williams' absence last season as much as people expected. Still, Brown figures to be a breakout candidate at some point. Cameron won't be able to use him the way he used Ladainian the last few years, but Brown figures to enjoy life a bit more...Fullback Schlesinger was signed to help open holes as well. A healthy Green and motivated Chambers would force opposing defenses to respect Miami's passing game. Brown could slip out of the first round in most drafts, and if so, he would be a fantasy bargain. I wouldn't waste a draft pick on Williams, who wasn't exactly a CFL star and seems to be no closer to returning to the NFL field than he was a year ago..."

Alright at least a little fantasy commitment here. I loved Brown's potential last year but forgot one simple key I will not forget again - you have to look beyond just the player and his role and at the O-Line and the coach. I don't think they did much here to improve the O-Line, but I think the coach is a huge improvement. I'm also not sold on Schlesinger being that helpful either, good fullbacks are few and far between, so teams tend to only let them move on if they have slipped a notch or two. I do like Brown again this year (I know fool me once, fool me twice), but only if the price is right and I think that price is mid second round after I have a back who can carry me or if there is no better option at RB and I splurged on Peyton in round one-but that would worry me some.

Wide receivers

"Chambers was supposed to have a big season with Culpepper throwing deep pass after deep pass his way, but that never materialized, or even came close. The No. 30 pick in ESPN average live drafts a year ago, Chambers was a huge disappointment who posted his worst numbers since 2002. In fact, he ended up third on his own teamin receptions and yards. Welker departed to division rival New England, and Booker could be on the way out after finishing up a third disappointing season with the Dolphins. Rookie Ted Ginn was a surprising pick, but there's no telling how he fits in, if at all, to the passing game. We don't even know if he's healthy after suffering a foot injury in the Fiesta Bowl. Well-traveled wideout Az-Zahir Hakim could be the No. 3 receiver over Ginn, who the Dolphins figure can help immediately on returns...Chambers has plenty of talent, and could easily return to the lofty stats fantasy owners expect of him. A top-10 wide receiver in recent seasons, he's likely to slip out of the top-20 in most leagues this fall, meaning there is significant value to be had. Green annually put up big yardage totals in Kansas City, despite not having premier wide receiver -- the type of player Chambers can be. Booker, Hakim and Ginn aren't worthy of starting in a fantasy league, or even drafting at all..."

Let's see - we have a new coach that ran a team where no WRs were fantasy solid, a new QB who was on a team where no fantasy WRs were solid and a lineup of WRs that does not look that great. I think the above is a good analysis of Chambers though - if he falls out of the top 20 he would be a GREAT bargain, so I would take him before I take the 20th best WR absolutely. Also, rest of the squad currently is not worth drafting.

Tight ends

"McMichael was one of the more underrated players at the position during his five-year tenure with the Dolphins, breaking big plays and scoring a handful of touchdowns each year. He encountered some off-field issues before the 2006 season, but they didn't seem to affect his stats. Financial considerations ended up sealing his departure to the Rams. Former injury-plagued Packer David Martin and former Charger Justin Peelleare the newcomers, but that duo combined isn't likely to replace McMichael's production -- especially downfield...It's also unlikely any of the Dolphins tight ends will be worthy of a selection, though Martin does profile as the kind of big tight end the Cameron system prefers."

This is worth watching. If they implement a SD style offense they may have a lot of TE passes in it, and if Martin is the clear #1 TE for pass plays, he would be a good draft pick to steal at the end of the draft. Too early to tell at this point though.

The Bottom Line

"The Dolphins have been through many quarterbacks and five coaches since the Shula era ended in 1995. Cameron, entrusted with a four-year deal, helped develop a number of quarterbacks in his college career at Michigan and Indiana...as well as in his tenure in the NFL...Green isn't someone he needs to teach again (they worked together with the Redskins), but Beck is, and everyone will be watching since the Dolphins passed on Brady Quinn to select Beck a round later. One might regard this as a rebuilding season in South Florida, but if that was the case, why bring in a 37-year-old quarterback...I don't think the Dolphins are far away from contending for a playoff spot, and if things fall right their late-December games could be very meaningful. Green is only two years away from being a starting quarterback in fantasy, while Chambers could have merely had an bad season in 2006. Brown's career should continue to get better. For a team coming off a 6-10 season, the Dolphins feature quite a few valued fantasy assets -- including a top-notch defense. This team could not only win more than they lose, but it could also help fantasy owners with a number of value picks..."

This is way too much sunshine even for Florida! I do not see this team as playoff contending at all. NO. D is still pretty good, but pretty old too, 6-10 last year could lead to 8-8 this year, but I think there may be more growing pains than that. I agree there could be a few fantasy bargains here, so keep your eyes on the mock draft ranks for Brown and Chambers, and watch if anything happens at TE here...

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Outlook

Another great helmet and logo - the Vikings just feel right for Football!
Another great helmet and logo - the Vikings just feel right for Football!

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Scott Engel's Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Outlook article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

"The Vikings won four of their first six games in 2006. They couldn't sustain the positive momentum, though, and lost eight of their final 10 games. Instead of remaking the team as a true contender during the offseason, the Minnesota brain trust elected to embrace a longer-term approach to rebuilding the team. Young players will play key roles on a shaky offense. Inexperience and lack of quality depth will bog down the passing game, and the running attack will be the crux of Brad Childress' West Coast offense..."

I dont really agree with this pretty shaky prognosis. Sometimes I just think a team gets it and moves in the right direction to be competitive and to be so for what should be along time. In other words, they seem to be implementing a system that works (read = New England Patriots and the 49ers are also on this path I believe). I think the Vikings are on this track, and I think it took being very lost for them to get on this track. For years they were a talented team without a goos strategy and with terrible coaching. I think that has all changed. They have smartly built this team around key defensive and OL position talent. They are pretty stacked and I like their coach. The only question is why are they so high on Tavaris? But who am I to doubt a team that is on the right path, so I'll assume he is a budding QB star. Also have to question their WRs a bit, but as the Patriots have proven, you can get by with some patchwork WRs (maybe not win it all, but compete).

Key Offensive Skill Player Additions

RB Adrian Peterson

WR Sidney Rice

TE Visanthe Shiancoe

Key Offensive Position Outlook

Quarterbacks

"Childress has openly stated that Tarvaris Jackson and Bollinger will battle for the starting job. In reality, Jackson clearly has the edge in the race and it would be surprising not to see him open the season as the starter. Jackson has a terrific arm and a lot of promise. He can also buy time to throw by using his feet and has a great work ethic. He is very raw, though, and it's going to take a lot of time for him to learn how to make consistently good reads and decisions at the NFL level. He's going to be very erratic in his first full season as a starter and should not be drafted in fantasy leagues..."

Should not be drafted is far too strong here. I dont expect him to be top 10 in his first year, but I say worthy of a backup spot because he may break out more than expected, and may get some nice running TDs so I think he is top 20 and worth drafting at the end of it all.

Running Backs

"Taylor and Peterson will initially share carries, in an effort to not overwork the rookie early in his career. There have been well-documented concerns about Peterson's durability, especially since he runs high and exposes himself to many big hits...using both Peterson and Taylor often will keep defenses off balance. Peterson will be the strong inside runner with big-play potential, while Taylor is a hard worker who can catch passes out of the backfield. Look for Peterson to emerge as the better fantasy option of the two as the regular season progresses. He'll outdo Taylor in rushing yardage and will be the preferred goal-line option. Peterson will get significantly more carries than Taylor by midyear. He will be more productive than Taylor for fantasy purposes and will deliver some very impressive outings. Taylor will remain useful, as he will get a healthy amount of touches. He'll have to spell Peterson here and there, and with unreliable wide receivers, Jackson will throw to him a lot..."

This is a concern. I think they will get better productivity in the RB role than last year, but it looks like a split job for the most part. Also concerned that 1) Teams will stack against the run to make the raw QB beat them 2) That raw QB may run a lot himself. I would go for Peterson before Taylor too as upside potential. We saw what Taylor can do, so he seems unlikely to become a top back, we don't know yet about Peterson, so he could become a star? I think he will be overvalued as was Chester Taylor last year though.

Wide Receivers

"Second-round pick Sidney Rice will make an immediate impact. Listed at 6-4 and 200 pounds, he's a promising blend of size and speed. Rice must polish his technique and could be challenged by physical defenders, but there is an obvious opportunity for him to contribute right away. Monitor his progress closely during the preseason. Rice is worth a flier in yearly drafts....Bobby Wad will throw down numbers as he becomes Jackson's favorite target. He should emerge as a very good fantasy backup, a respectable option who can blend well into the West Coast offense. The disappointing Troy Williamson will be a wasted fantasy draft choice again. With Jackson at the controls, Williamson won't get enough opportunities to make things happen downfield or after the catch. Even when he does get open, drops will continue to plague him. Rice will overtake him as a starter during the season..."

A new Wide Receiver named Rice - watch out! I hope he does emerge and is great, but I expect it will take too much time for him to be worth a spot this season, and feel that the rest of these guys are not really looking draft worthy either.

Tight Ends

"Jim Kleinsasser is still an asset as a blocker, but he is useless in fantasy leagues...Visanthe Shiancoe will get the chance to be a prime receiving target at tight end, but Jackson won't get him the ball enough to make him a quality fantasy starter..."

Reads like the one word here is "AVOID"

Bottom Line

"Peterson is going to make his presence felt quickly in fantasy leagues, even with the questions around him on offense. Most of his offensive teammates, however, won't enjoy much success. The Vikings will struggle to gain respectability in the passing game, and there will be some ugly losses. Childress will stick with his young players throughout the tough times, and Peterson will provide some thrills while Rice will make some notable contributions. With too many young players and holes on offense, the Vikings will fall out of playoff contention early in the season. Their young guys, however, will get a lot of work as the team looks to the future, especially late in the schedule..."

This is not how I feel - I think they can compete for the division based on great D (good team D to pick on draft day), top O-line (one of the key things to look at that often gets ignored in Fantasy Football, and good coaching. I agree that none of their players look like top notch fantasy studs (except maybe for that D), but this is the same way the Patriots were for recent years ans they won. I think the main beneficiary here is TJ - Tavaris Jackson, as a really good O-line can make up for a lot of raw inexperience, so he is a worthy sleeper pick in my book.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


New England Patriots Fantasy Football Outlook

Flying Elvis!
Flying Elvis!

New England Patriots Fantasy Football Preview

Here are some key excerpts from Chris Harris's New England Patriots Fantasy Football Outlook article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2946112

"Three Super Bowls in four years get you a free pass. And it's a good thing, because the Patriots made several pretty stupid moves in 2006; moves that, you could argue, cost them ring No. 4. Foremost among the personnel gaffes in Foxborough was the mess at wide receiver. The Patriots stared down their No. 1 wideout, Deion Branch, all summer, all training camp and into the season's first week, refusing to budge on renegotiating the last year of Branch's rookie contract before finally trading him to Seattle for a first-round pick in 2007. The decision not to pay for receiving talent was, we were told, part of a strict adherence to long-term thinking. Don't pay more than you think a player is worth, no matter what. And that was all well and good until the second half of the AFC Championship Game last year, when Brady couldn't find anyone to hang on to the ball, and the Pats blew a 21-6 lead. So, New England learned a hard lesson: Principles are great until the fourth quarter against the Colts. This year, come hell or high water, the Patriots weren't going to let a lack of wide receiving talent (or, for that matter, linebacking talent) bite them in their collective rump. They've apparently decided that winning tastes better than signing only high-character players or self-righteously staying well below the salary cap..."

As a local to New England, I can bring a bit more expertise to bear than Mr. Harris. Not having enough quality WRs last year was a bit of an issue, but I think almost winning the AFC Championship game and thereby almost being Super Bowl champs shows that this was not really that big of an issue and I think they really lost that game due to LB injuries. Regardless, boy have they stepped up on both sides of the ball and gotten outrageously deep at WR and added the best possible defender in Thomas! Of course none of this has any specific fantasy impact so let's get to that good stuff!

Key Offensive Additions

WR Randy Moss

WR Donte' Stallworth

WR Wes Welker

WR Kelley Washington

RB Sammy Morris

TE Kyle Brady

Key Offensive Fantasy Position Outlook

Quarterback

Tom Brady was a top-10 quarterback in 2006 despite a mediocre cast of receiving characters. He passed for 3,529 yards, seventh most in the league, and connected for 24 scores and 12 interceptions. Has he had better years? Yup. But he was good most weeks, and the Patriots' offense continues to be friendly to fantasy quarterback performance. The Pats throw a ton in the red zone (15 of Brady's touchdowns came from inside the 10), and they also have a tendency to throw a lot when they're ahead. With no Corey Dillon around to batter foes, and with a receiving corps that has massive upside, Brady is a top-five quarterback this year by any measure. The best part is that, unlike some of the quarterbacks ranked near him, Brady's got a rock-solid worst-case scenario of about 25 touchdowns and 3,500 yards...

Brady is an interesting Fantasy QB as he has had some up and down years. I think given the options at WR last year, a top 10 finish was actually very good (and wise owners ranked him around there based on the lack of WRs and the strong strong running game). This year is a whole other matter as Brady has top 3 written all over him based on the depth of talent, and the loss of the battering ram RB Corey Dillon. Brady has always been a master of spreading the ball around to whoever is open and with this many options, he should easily find an open target. I love that line about the Pats throwing a ton in the red zone - as they will do even more of that this year. Barring any injury he is a lock to be at worst a fantasy starter and at best top 2. That sort of lack of risk bodes well, and I think since he had a bit of an off year, he may find a good draft position below his actual value (unless you have some female owners in your league then he will be overvalued for sure).

Running Backs

"Last year's complicated tango between Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon is over; Maroney will be the man...in deep point-per-reception leagues, Faulk (considering his 43 catches in '06) can even be a borderline usable flex player...Morris' potential fantasy value comes from his size; if Maroney gets hurt or struggles on the goal line, Morris figures to be the guy New England would use most. I wouldn't say eitherof these players qualifies as a handcuff...Laurence Maroney will make or break a whole lot of fantasy teams this year. Either he grows into his full-time role and winds up on the cover of ESPN The Magazine's fantasy issue in 2008, or he gets hurt again and buries the Patriots' chances...Maroney has never carried the ball 20 times in an NFL game. Never. In order to justify a top-10 selection, he'll have to do that most every week. But he'll get chances. Between them, Dillon and Maroney accounted for 24 goal-line carries in '06; give Maroney that many again this year, and he'll easily fall into double-digit rushing touchdowns. He's also very good at catching passes, and 1,300 yards rushing should be achievable if he's healthy...But that's the rub. The reason you have to drop Maroney behind a few of the very top backs is he's never made it through a pro season unscathed before. Headed into camp, I have Maroney slotted No. 9 among backs, though if reports indicate he's completely healthy, I reserve the right to move him up..."

Sorry quick nonfantasy rebuttal here - There is no way a Maroney injury "buries the Patriots chances". Again this team was so close to it all last year with no WRs and key defensive injuries. Losing Maroney would be tough but would certainly not bury them. I think there is only one injury that would truly bury this team and we all know who that is. Ok back to fantasy time - I share some concern about Maroney's durability and lack of 20 carry games thus far. He is a great back, but he is already trying to comeback from an injury in the preseason. I think his ranking around #9 is about right, BUT I think you have to try and handcuff him with Morris in your draft - unless that somehow changes in the preseason. Maroney does have higher potential to do good things this year - but I dont expect him to be a fantasy magazine coverboy next season!

Wide Receivers

"Now comes the fun part. Randy Moss reportedly looked great this summer, ran really fast and had a great attitude. Now, where have I heard that before? Oh, that's right, every single year. All it'll take is Brady failing to throw into double coverage a few times in a game, and Moss will be back to squirting water bottles on officials, faux-mooning crowds and driving over meter maids. Listen, he'll be good. I think he'll wind up being, say, a top-20 receiver. But all this talk about recapturing the old Randy is so much hokum. That guy is gone. Plus, there are just too many other talented receivers here now, and defenses are still going to pay the most attention to Moss. That should leave guys like Donte' Stallworth, Wes Welker and Benjamin Watson single-covered, and Brady is a guy who'll always spread the ball around. Granted, last year's receiving corps was bad, but did you know that noPatriots receiver caught more than four scores in '06? In '05, no one caught more than five...And hey, reserve love some for the other guys. Would I draft Stallworth to be a WR1? Of course not. But as a value WR2 pick, I think he could excel. A thousand yards and six or seven scores feel very possible if his hamstrings stay right. And if your league gives bonuses for distance touchdowns, so much the better, because Stallworth scored from 20, 30, 42 and 84 yards last year. Was the Moss acquisition a damper for Stallworth's fantasy value? Absolutely. But it didn't kill it...Welker will be the possession guy, and could catch 60 balls this year, so his would be a name worth knowing in point-per-reception leagues..."

I keep reading more and more of this irrational both sides of the mouth Moss analysis. They say #1 no way is he still the talented freak he once was #2 the double teams will mean he will not get thrown to as Brady finds the open target. If he has dropped in talent he will not be facing double teams! So which is it? I think his talented freak ways will return in abundance on a winning team full of strong leaders and he THEREFORE will not have a great great season because he will draw defensive attention and Brady will find the open guy. So overall, all these targets bodes well for the Pats offensive production and for Brady in fantasy stats, but not for any of these individual performers. I think Moss will have a good year and could see his fair share of TD grabs, but I think he will be overvalued and not worth the slot you will have to draft him in. I think the above Stallworth and Welker projections are too bold as well and would think Donte is no more than a late round #3 or #4 WR (not a solid #2) and that Welker is not worth drafting. This is the Fun part though and I look forward to seeing how they wort out this WR position and how the offense uses such a huge abundance of potential.

Tight Ends

"With Daniel Graham gone, Benjamin Watson is clearly the go-to receiving tight end. Kyle Brady's days as a receiving option on anything but a 1-yard goal-line out pattern are long behind him. He's a blocker..."

When Watson was the Pats best Receiver last year, he did not really step up and produce as expected - too much defensive focus was able to shut him down some. This year, teams can not focus on him, which is good, but I don't think he will have Brady's focus either, so he may be a starting fantasy TE come draft day, but I think that is more due to the lack of strong TEs worth drafting and starting than it is due to him having a really big year.

Team Defense

"The defense will be good. Acquiring Adalius Thomas should help, but let's face it, the Colts made New England's front seven look old and slow in the second half of that game in January...Despite an often-grueling schedule and an improving AFC East, this is still a top-five fantasy defense..."

Top 5 is a pretty good spot for them Thomas raises them no doubt (and brings the Ravens down a few spots). I think outside of New England they will be a good value as a top 5 D that you can pick up later on during the draft (i.e. pass on Chicago and Baltimore and load up elsewhere).

Bottom Line

"They're one of the two or three best teams in football, without an obvious weakness, and filled with potential fantasy stars. Maroney will go highest in drafts and he should, because he's got immense upside (but scary downside as well). Brady deserves to be taken among the top five quarterbacks, but don't start believing he's in the same league as Manning or Palmer and the incredible receiving depth would axiomatically appear to cause the best guy (Moss) to be overvalued, and the next-best guy (Stallworth) to be undervalued. Regardless, every starter on this team will also be a fantasy starter in most leagues, and on the whole will probably make his owners pretty darned happy..."

I don't think every starter on this team will start in fantasy, but I I do agree that Maroney will go first in round one (probably too high but if you handcuff him with Morris you will be in good shape regardless). Brady to me is the real value, as I think his season potential is right up there with the top QBs and you can get him a round or two later! I like Moss, but think he is probably overvalued (I'll pick him though anyway!), I do not think Stallworth is at all undervalued though - GO PATS!

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Outlook

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Eric Karabell's New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Outlook article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2943206

"Think about where the Saints were a year ago, coming off a brutal 3-13 season, playing their home games in another state, and their turnaround is incredible. Consider the franchise entered the 2006 campaign with a new coach, quarterback and running back, and came home to a city that needed positive change, and the team's 10-6 record and playoff berth are even more improbable....Drew Brees is still in the prime of his career, and has been up to the task previously when challenged. Reggie Bush and Marques Colston still have their primes ahead of them, and much to prove. Innovative second-year coach Sean Payton has more than enough to work with here. This season could be even better for Saints fans, and fantasy owners will reap the benefits as well..."

Indeed a great story last year for many reasons - especially for those who put a few Vegas legal wagers on The Saints before the season started. For fantasy purposes you had to love Drew Brees!

Key Offensive Additions

WR Robert Meachem

TE Eric Johnson

K Olindo Mare

Key Offensive Position Analysis

Quarterback

"What amazes me is how quickly the Saints recovered from the loss of Aaron Brooks. OK, that's sarcasm, and the franchise couldn't wait to part with the erratic quarterback who hadn't led New Orleans to the playoffs since 2000, but who expected Brees to be this good? While Brees had proved himself to be a top-10 signal-caller in San Diego, his career there ended with him walking off the field with his arm barely attached (figuratively, of course, as it was a torn labrum), and tepid offseason interest in the free agent. The Dolphins didn't want Brees; they actually chose Daunte Culpepper. How'd that work out? Brees got the Saints to the postseason in his first try, finished second in league MVP voting and delivered one of the most exciting seasons, on the field and emotionally, in franchise history. Sure, the franchise had topped 10 wins before -- three times in 39 seasons, to be exact -- but never quite like this. Credit Brees for embracing his new home, and helping it thrive...Brees should again be throwing early and often, as the league's most prolific offense in terms of yards (that's right, better than the Colts) aims to outscore teams, but is it realistic to expect the same amount of production? Peyton Manning remains fantasy's top signal-caller, but doesn't Brees have more to prove to get to the level of Carson Palmer and Tom Brady? In fact, you might find Brees comes at a bit of a bargain price this season, as fantasy owners elect to choose the tried and true options over him. Expect some drop-off in yards and touchdowns from Brees, but not much..."

I think Brees will actually go sooner than he should in drafts this year as he was such a surprise last year. I'd rather find this year's surprise Brees like QB performer than overspend on last year's. He should be top 5 QB worthy though in stats.

Running backs

"Fantasy owners weren't quite sure what to make of the proposed McAllister-Bush tandem after the rookie fell into the Saints' lap on draft day, but both players came up big. McAllister made a strong recovery from knee surgery, topping 1,000 yards rushing and registering double-digit touchdowns, all despite the presence of the hyped rookie. Bush's numbers aren't the norm for running backs, as much of his production came through the passing game and on big plays, and half his season total for touchdowns came in Week 13, when many fantasy owners had him on the bench. The final stats belie the fact that an inconsistent Bush was, for the most part, more fantasy tease than treasure, but he doesn't look so overrated today. Both Saints running backs are clear fantasy starters...Fantasy owners who select Bush in the second round of their drafts -- while McAllister is still on the table -- will be left to wonder when the transition of ground production takes place, but don't expect it to happen this season. This is not your normal platoon situation...Bush is already one of the foremost running back weapons the league has out of the passing game, while McAllister was presented with 21 goal-line carries, making it pretty clear how he was used. Check your league rules on the value of receptions, and if you're rewarded with a point per reception, Bush becomes worthy of first-round status in those leagues. Regardless of what Bush does, McAllister's campaign was hardly a fluke, and he's likely to be a bit undervalued..."

Right on 21 goal line carries! Deuce should again produce touch downs and go later in drafts then he should. Bush will again produce NFL stats but remain inconsistent in Fantasy value and be drafted sooner than he should.

Wide receivers

"Most people don't pay much attention to players selected on draft weekend's second day, but the success of seventh-rounder Colston should change that. He was very nearly Mr. Irrelevant, but in reality, he was this team's most productive rookie most of the season. Colston was on pace for 100 receptions, 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns when an ankle injury derailed his season and sent fantasy owners in search of other options, but there's no reason to think the Hofstra product is brittle. Horn, however, did look old and brittle, but now he's Atlanta's problem. Henderson was extremely productive with his 32 receptions, averaging a mind-boggling 23.3 yards per catch, and should slide into Horn's starting spot without issue. Rookie Meachem and underutilized Cooper will be just an injury away from being more than a bit relevant in fantasy...The wide receiver corps doesn't figure to hold Brees back. Colston has the size and speed to produce, but will the loss of veteran Horn be an issue? I'm guessing it won't be. Meachem is a burner who doesn't figure to come guaranteed in fantasy immediately, so someone will need to step up to force defenses to pay attention. Former Patriot David Patten and Copper could push Henderson right away..."

This is the year for Colston - will he step up and be a reliable top 10 WR or fall back into mediocrity? I expect him to step up - he has the size and skills to be their #1 red zone target so he should have a decent year here.

Tight ends

"Brees managed to top 4,400 passing yards with little help from this position, and depending on how optimistic you are, he might get that aid this season. Former 49er Johnson hasn't been able to stay on the field much, but fantasy owners remember his 82 receptions in 2004. Then again, the guy didn't play at all in 2005, and was used sparingly last season. Don't make Johnson the only tight end you draft in fantasy; Payton could elect to, or be forced to, go with the committee approach again..."

My head and heart agree on this one. Avoid. Johnsons has yet to ever live up to expectations, and they have some other decent TEs there as well.

The Bottom Line

"The Saints have the personnel on offense to make things very exciting, keep pace on the scoreboard week after week and, for our purposes, help fantasy owners win leagues. Man, that opening-week game at Indy should be a blast. Brees will be one of the first five quarterbacks to be selected on draft day, two running backs are second-round worthy and Colston could be a future star..."

What no mention of Olindo Mare? This is a pretty high flying offense, so the kicker should be fantasy starter worthy - so I think Mare has good value. Brees is top 5 and should live up to it, but I think 2 second round worthy RBs is too much to ask. That to me is a cop out ranking as one of them has to be much more worthy than the other. Last year that was Deuce and I expect the same this year, so he has more vale than Bush here.

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


New York Football Giants Fantasy Football Outlook

Love the old Giants, but pretty lame logo now!
Love the old Giants, but pretty lame logo now!

New York Giants Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Ken Daub's New York Giants Fantasy Football Outlook article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2946083

"The New York Giants essentially backed into the 2006 NFL playoffs, winning only two of their last eight regular-season games. What began as a promising season went up in smoke as head coach Tom Coughlin feuded with veteran leadership and almost lost control of his team. Nonetheless, Giants ownership elected to bring Coughlin back to coach the 2007 version of the G-Men. While Coughlin critic Tiki Barber has since retired, you have to wonder how that decision rests with other outspoken critics and team leaders, especially Michael Strahan and Jeremy Shockey. There will be intense pressure on Coughlin to succeed this year, and he's already promised to be a more understanding coach. Will that translate into a new philosophy or more success? It's unlikely considering the difficulty of the Giants' 2007 schedule..."

Blah - I do not like this team's prospects much for the season (how could they make the playoffs!) nor for Fantasy Football perspective. You know how I say some teams seem to get it and move in the right directions (New Orleans, San Fran and Minn are my current darlings in that regard). Here's a team that looks like the reverse. I like Coughlin, but this situation is ugly and I think will be even worse this year. Really the best news for fantasy owners is that Tiki retired. Year after year he would fall in fantasy drafts below where he was expected to go until you just could not resist him anymore and would draft him - and yet 9 times out of 10 he would still disappoint at that "value" spot. So his retirement should relieve draft day stress for a lot of us. I'll keep this Giants analysis brief as there is not much worth drafting on the whole.

Key Offensive Additions

Ahmad Bradshaw (RB)

Reuben Droughns (RB)

Cedric Humes (RB)

Steve Smith (WR)

Lawrence Tynes (K)

Key Offensive Position Outlook

Quarterbacks

"This is Manning's make-or-break season. The Giants have attempted to upgrade his receiving options, most notably with the selection of Smith in the draft. The biggest critique of Manning has been his inaccuracy on short passes. With Barber gone, Manning likely will throw fewer passes in that range, which should improve his overall productivity..."

I don't think this will make or break Manning. He will be ok again, and start to feel some heat after the season, but most of that will fall on the coaches so next year's coaches can work on a Manning make or break season. For fantasy, only draft if the price is really right (for me that's as a back up QB with a lot of other options already off the board).

Running Backs

"Brandon Jacobs will be given every opportunity to take the starting job and make it his own. In his first two seasons, Jacobs has displayed flashes of greatness, running over defenders and even carrying them several yards on his back. While some Giants fans are ready to predict a 1,400-yard and 10-touchdown season for Jacobs based on his unusual size and speed, there is cause for concern. In 2006, Jacobs' monthly yard-per-carry averages were: September, 7.0; October, 4.3; November, 3.9; December, 3.5. This decline lined up with the Giants' overall offensive decline last season and should be used as a decision-making factor when trying to justify when to select Jacobs. Reuben Droughns will enter the season as the backup, but he will hold that position only until the Giants figure out that they pulled off one of the biggest draft-day steals in recent history with their selection of Ahmad Bradshaw in the seventh round. Bradshaw doesn't have exceptional distance speed, but he finds holes and cut-back lanes efficiently. Those of you in dynasty leagues would be well-served to acquire him..."

I would like to be a big supporter of Jacobs - love his strength, power and TD potential, but there are some major issues like the O-line decline, coaching potential disarray, no experience as the feature back and very interesting decline in his stats mentioned above. Imagine if Bradshaw is anywhere near as good as this over hype above, then Jacobs may be back in platoon land. Since, even at his worst, he is likely to get the goal line carries, he is worth drafting, but I think other owners will overvalue him based on Tiki's departure and not looking into the negatives listed above, so he will not likely be on my team.

Wide Receivers

"Burress should remain a solid No. 2 fantasy wideout, but continue to expect inconsistency in his performance. Burress is the type of player you want if your fantasy team is good, not great. His monster games will help you win games you otherwise wouldn't have, but he can also cost you games when he disappears. Toomer will be the No. 2 receiver until Smith shows that he can be a solid possession receiver and is willing to block downfield. Look for Smith to earn a starting role no later than Week 5..."

How do you equate "solid #2" with "inconsistency" and "fantasy team good, not great". I want consistent performance from my starting #2 WR and I dont really like Burress to give it to me, so I'll knock him down my draft board. I love the fact we now have two Steve Smith's to think about on draft day at WR - maybe I can convince some owner to draft the NYG version and not the CAR one that is the only one worth calling out on draft day.

Tight End

"Shockey has all the tools to be an elite tight end, but don't let that be your decision factor when deciding whether to select him. He is usually taken as one of the first second-tier tight ends because of that talent. Fantasy-wise, though, you are better off waiting to select the last player in that tier -- this year, that likely will be Kellen Winslow-- and since you can likely secure Winslow two rounds later than Shockey, the latter's value is overrated..."

Right on the money here. Shockey has value in fantasy, but never seems to have as much as some owner thinks he has.

Kicker

"Yes, I'm serious. Lawrence Tynesis the obvious choice to break out of camp as the place-kicker; however, keep an eye on Josh Huston, a rookie from Ohio State University. Huston was a solid kicker in college who has shown the ability to kick in not-so-nice weather. If Tynes starts missing easy field goals in camp, Huston will win this job, and he would become as big a sleeper as a kicker could be. Remember, Jay Feely was among the highest-scoring kickers in fantasy while playing under Coughlin as a Giant..."

I'm glad Kicker got mentioned here. I think this offense does not warrant a top kicker pick, but then again they did not last year either and Feely did very well. So a late sleeper pick of Huston sounds like a decent plan.

The Bottom Line

"The combination of a difficult schedule and a coach who is less than well-liked presents a mixed situation for fantasy footballers. The Giants' success will be determined by the play of Manning, which bodes well for both Burress and Shockey. Manning has two paths before him this season. He can become the superstar the Giants expected when they traded for him or he can continue to dwell in mediocrity. The second path is much more likely to occur, which leaves him as a borderline starting fantasy quarterback. Other than probable fourth-round selection Burress, the Giants' wide receiving corps is waiver-wire fodder this season. Don't waste a pick on any of the others because the upside isn't there to justify a flier. In the end, the Giants' schedule likely will be too much for them to overcome to offer consistent fantasy production..."

I expect the Medicre Manning to come through again as well. Which to me means bump down Burress and Shockey on your draft boards. Jacobs too I feel good about, but not at the price he is likely to cost come draft day, and the D - forget about it! That leaves that interesting sleeper at Kicker to ponder...

----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------


New York Jets Fantasy Football Outlook

New York Jets Fantasy Football Preview

Hi here are some key excerpts from Scott Engel's New York Jets Fantasy Football Outlook article for espn.com.

Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...

For full article please click here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2947630

"After winning only four games in 2005, the Jets entered last season with low expectations. The first season of the Eric Mangini era turned out to be surprisingly successful. The Jets improved their win total by six games and earned an AFC playoff berth. The offense will be more balanced in 2007, but the team's long-suffering fans will be disappointed if they expect more major strides this year..."

This looks like another brief fantasy football analysis as not too much excitement around the Jets from a fantasy football perspective. I do like the way the ManGenuis has the team headed, but do not expect a huge offensive burst from these players.

Key Offensive Skill Player Additions

Key Offensive position Overview

Quarterbacks

"The addition of Jones will not only give the Jets a formidable featured back, it will also take pressure off the quarterback. Chad Pennington should be able to use play-action passes more effectively and will find himself in less adverse passing situations. Pennington doesn't have much of a gun, especially after two shoulder surgeries, but he operates the offense very well. He should make fewer mistakes than he did last season, and he'll be a solid fantasy reserve..."

Solid fantasy reserve - again nothing to get excited about as far as I can tell. I'll focus on stronger upside potential for my reserve QB selections though.

Running Backs

"Jones will become a featured part of an offense that was missing a ball-control element last season. He's a sturdy inside runner who should be a reliable goal-line option. The Jets will sprinkle in Washington just enough to make sure Jones doesn't get overworked, and the ex-Bear should be a terrific No. 2 fantasy running back. Newly acquired fullback Darian Barnes will be a mean-spirited and effective lead blocker for Jones..."

I'm not familiar with Darian Barnes but I like the sound of a mean spirited fullback! Still, the O-line is very raw (especially if they lose Kendall which it sounds like they will - that would be a big blow to their running game). I think Jones has too much hype and think there is a reason he has been so well traveled in the NFL - i.e. he is not that good! Mangenuis may learn this as well and mix in more of the old RBBC as the season progresses. I'm not agreeing with him being a "terrific No 2 Fantasy Back" and would adjust that to a "servicable bottom tier No 2 back"

Wide Receivers

"Laveranues Coles has gotten banged up over the years and doesn't get downfield like he used to, but he fights for the ball and will be a more dependable playmaker this season as defenses respect his offensive counterparts more. Jerricho Cotchery had a breakthrough season in 2006 and will certainly merit more defensive respect during this campaign. Cotchery is tough, smart and can get loose after the catch for extra yardage. He and Coles will be solid No. 2 fantasy receivers in 2007..."

Again this kind of equal ranking always annoys me. They will not both have similar seasons, so analysts need to rank who will be better and not cop out on the both will be solid #2 receivers line. I will probably have them both ranked lower on my charts than anyone else and would definitely put Coles above Jerricho unless something happens in the preseason. Coles is still one of the better top 20ish receivers in the league, he just does not have a great situation to put up big numbers. Again, really nothing to get excited about here.

Tight End

"Tight end Chris Baker has the potential to be a quality fantasy player, but he is often needed to block and doesn't get enough opportunities to display his receiving skills..."

Chris Baker Touchdown Maker - has a nice ring to it, but seems like a longshot.

Kicker

"Kicker Mike Nugent missed only three field-goal attempts last season and is on the rise. Nugent is a good value pick when the other top kickers are off the board very late in drafts..."

Agreed good kicker on the rise on a team that will probably kick a fair amount of field goals so if the value is right take him as your #2 at the end of the draft. I think the stadium, the schedule and the lack of offensive powerhouse scoring will keep me from getting very excited here as well.

Bottom Line

"The Jets won't back down on offense, and an improved running game will help them stand up to several formidable opponents on a tough schedule. The defense, however, will often let them down, and it will be more of a struggle to earn a playoff berth. None of their top offensive players will be major fantasy standouts, yet they will often provide you with solid production. As Mangold and Ferguson improve on the line, the Jets will become more steady offensively and should serve you well in the fantasy playoffs, when their schedule turns soft..."

I do like to sneak a peek at th teams schedule when our fantasy playoffs will run. I think he is very very very misguided here though. Week #15 is generally the week before the Superbowl for most of the fantasy leagues (so very important for good performance) and the Jets are AT New England in week 15. How is this soft? Sorry, but that mach up could be very hard on all involved especially if the weather is sour.

Comments

RSS for comments on this Hub

No comments yet.

Submit a Comment

Members and Guests

Sign in or sign up and post using a hubpages account.


optional


  • No HTML is allowed in comments, but URLs will be hyperlinked
  • Comments are not for promoting your hubs or other sites

working