Fantasy Football Team by Team Analysis - Part 4
64Fantasy Football Expert NFL Team Projections O through S
Fantasy Football Expert Previews continuing with the team by team look through the NFL teams from a fantasy perspective regarding key fantasy football offensive situations, news, forecasts and expectations. We start with a link to the fantasy football team analysis provided by ESPN, and then do a brief highlight snippet of the most important parts of these articles and add my own Fantasy Football Wizard expert analysis and thoughts on top of each.
Teams O (The Raiders) through S (St. Louis)
With links at the bottom to the rest of the teams alphabetically
Oakland Raiders Fantasy Football Analysis
Here are key excerpts from espn.com's Oakland Raiders Fantasy Football Outlook article.
Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...
For full article please click here:
The past four years, the Raiders are 15-49, good for a .234 winning percentage under three head coaches. Just Blow Baby...More than perhaps any other franchise in football, the Raiders are stuck in a 1970s mentality. They simply believe they're smarter than everyone else, and don't have to work as hard. They can hire coordinators out of random bed-and-breakfasts. They can ignore players' pasts, be they checkered or simply ineffective, and assume throwing on the silver and black will make them good. They can thumb their nose at convention, and simply throw downfield at will...In retrospect, the blip of success Oakland had under Jon Gruden was probably the worst thing that could have happened to the team. It convinced the Raiders the old way still works...The old way is what led to Kerry Collins and Randy Moss, LaMont Jordan and Aaron Brooks, and now the return of Doug Gabriel and the beleaguered Dominic Rhodes. Hubris, thy name is Al. Somehow I have a hard time believing 32-year-old Lane Kiffin, who has exactly zero professional football experience, is the immediate answer...There was precious little offensive talent on this team in '06, even with Moss. The offensive line was horrid and didn't get better in the offseason. Andrew Walter was the worst starting quarterback in football (except for maybe Brooks). Jordan was bad and then hurt, Courtney Anderson didn't emerge and Justin Fargas revealed himself to be nothing more than a backup running back. Rex Ryan's defense was better: The continued excellence of Derrick Burgess, the launching of Nnamdi Asomugha into cornerback stardom and the adequacy of guys like Michael Huff and Kirk Morrison helped Oakland's fantasy defense verge on the league's top half. Everything else, though, was and is a mess..."
Some good humor here and I agree - the Riaders still carry some odd, misplaced mystique that makes people think they are better than they are. The D is pretty darn good, but I think this is the only team in the NFL without a draftable offensive player in Fantasy Football!
Key Offensive Skill Player Additions
QB Daunte Culpepper
QB Josh McCown
RB Dominic Rhodes
TE Zach Miller
RB Michael Bush
Offensive Position Summaries:
Quarterbacks
"JaMarcus Russell wasn't drafted first overall to sit the entire season. The Raiders will be very bad once again, and McCown figures to give way to Russell in the second half of the year. Walter is still around, but he underwent arthroscopic knee surgery in mid-June, and will be healthy again only in time for training camp, putting him third on the depth chart for now...
Obviously written before Cpepper was brought on board - and it could be that Daunte is the best option on this team from a fantasy perspective, but due to terrible offensive line, Russell in the wings, new/first time head couch, I would just avoid and look elsewhere
Running Backs
"Rhodes was signed to a relatively large free-agent contract to threaten Jordan, but Rhodes will be suspended for Oakland's first four games this season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. That leaves the door open (again) for Justin Fargas, who continues to flash great athletic ability and almost no actual football-playing ability. For a month, we can expect Jordan to go unchallenged, with Fargas spelling him; once the suspension is up, Rhodes will assume a big place in the offense, perhaps going so far as to become a straight-up platoon mate for Jordan. Considering the offensive line behind which these guys will run, none is a very fun fantasy option. Don't forget the Raiders also drafted Michael Bush in the fourth round this year, but although his recovery from a severely broken leg is coming along, he likely won't be ready for the daily grind of training camp, and expecting any production from him this season is wishful thinking..."
This reads like a disaster to me - a crowded backfield of mediocrity on a team that will struggle to run the ball - do drafting here please
Wide Receivers
"The usual suspects, minus Moss, will haunt defensive backfields all year before tearing knee ligaments. For now, I guess you can assume injury-prone Ronald Curry and chronic malcontent Jerry Porter get the starting gigs, with prodigal son Gabriel spelling them. Rookie Johnnie Lee Higgins is a name to know; Higgins, a third-rounder out of UTEP, has reportedly looked very good in offseason workouts, and the team hopes he can start in the slot. Alvis Whitted is still around, but he's never exceeded 300 yards receiving in a season. Mike Williams makes an interesting throw-in acquisition in the McCown trade, if only because he worked closely with Kiffin at USC, but Kiffin's presence won't suddenly make Williams anything other than slow as molasses, so don't get too excited. If you had Travis Taylor in the "Who Will Be The Raiders' No. 7 Wide Receiver?" pool, congratulations..."
See above RB note and apply here - what a hodgepodge of talented WRs that will create just a mess of non-dratable Fantasy players
Tight Ends
"Rookie second-rounder Zach Miller is expected to be the starter from jump street, sending both Courtney Anderson and Randal Williams to the bench. Considering this team also acquired Tony Stewart (the ex-Cincinnati Bengal, not the hot-tempered Home Depot driver), playing time will be a mess for this backup trio. Suffice it to say, if you're drafting Oakland Raiders reserve tight ends, you might need to find a shallower league..."
Could be an interesting rookie here - but not that interesting at this point is it?
Bottom Line Analysis
"I honestly can't find a single Oakland Raider who should start in any fantasy leagues. I suppose if you're in a 16-teamer, maybe you can use Jordan as your RB2, provided you get LaDainian Tomlinson as your RB1. Naw, I wouldn't do it. Go get Michael Turner instead. The quarterback situation promises to be a petri dish, and I wouldn't be shocked to see all three guys -- Russell, McCown and Walter -- get at least one start. Russell would be the guy to draft simply because he's the only one with actual upside, in the form of his cannon-esque right arm, but using rookie quarterbacks on your fantasy team is a shortcut to the poor house. No one on this club will have significantly more touchdowns than interceptions. At running back, Jordan gets a one-month do-over as the Raiders' leading man. You can chalk up some of his pathetic 2006 (434 rushing yards, 10 receptions, two touchdowns, 3.8 yards per carry) to a dreadful offensive line, but Jordan looked like a shadow of his New York Jets self, running hesitantly, missing holes, missing blocks and generally making himself the biggest bust in fantasy football in '06. He also missed the last six games with a torn knee ligament. Rhodes was uninspired in pretty much every Colts game last year except the Super Bowl, a game in which he ran for 113 yards and a touchdown. On most teams, he's not anything close to an every-down back, but this isn't most teams. When he returns in Week 6, don't be shocked to see Rhodes get a heavy enough workload to suck the value out of Jordan. The biggest culprit here is the offensive line. Believe me, it's not like I'm a big Langston Walker fan, but he probably was the team's best tackle, and he's gone to Buffalo. Barry Sims gets the blindside tackle job after barely holding his own at guard last year, and Kiffin has already hinted he doesn't think former second overall pick Robert Gallery can play tackle in the NFL, and might have to be stuck inside at guard. Jake Grove is an adequate center and I like Cooper Carlisle playing guard in Oakland's new zone-blocking scheme (considering he's coming over from zone-blocking Denver), but the other tackle spot (if it's not Gallery) might come down to journeymen Chad Slaughter and Cornell Green. That's scary. This unit gave up 76 sacks last year. Curry can be a good NFL wide receiver, but with this line and these signal-callers, he's not a fantasy starter this year. Curry did catch 33 passes in the team's final four games last year (after Moss and Porter decided to check out), and if his knees stay intact, I guess you never know. He's an OK later-round gamble. Porter almost caught 1,000 yards' worth of passes in '04 and '05, but was active for only four games last season because he and Art Shell hated one another. He's got really good skills and should be out of the doghouse, but again, because of his team, he's not fantasy starter material. Neither is Higgins, but keeper-league owners should know his name. Clearly, rookie wide receivers hardly ever have any kind of fantasy impact, but Higgins is a lightning-quick slot guy who can catch a pass in space and take it upfield in a heartbeat. I don't see him contributing regularly enough to be a fantasy force in '07, but moving forward he's got the potential to be a serious weapon. The rest of these guys -- Williams, Taylor, Whitted, Gabriel -- are waiver-wire fodder. Miller out of Arizona State will be the starting tight end, and given the fact that Kiffin always enjoyed using his tight ends at USC (Dominique Byrd comes to mind), Miller has potential. But he's not fast, and he'll simply be way too limited by his quarterback and his own inexperience to be a fantasy entity this year..."
See what I mean about the Raider Mystique? Why write so much about the Raider disaster? I might draft their defense if the Kiffin System looks good in preseason (and if I miss out on my top 10 options somehow), but the rest is just simply "pass"
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Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Predictions
Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Analysis
Here are key excerpts from espn.com's Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Football Outlook article.
Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...
For full article please click here:
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2950033
"When one thinks of the Eagles, one can't help but think of McNabb. From the day he was drafted, when the fans booed and the writers ripped the team, McNabb has been the franchise player, the one who gets the credit for the good times, and gets blasted for the bad. Even when he's not on the field, working as much in recent Decembers as the Maytag repairman, it's all about McNabb, for better or worse. So how was it that the Eagles, thought to be dead in the water when McNabb tore up his knee in Week 11, and with a stretch of three straight division road games on the horizon, managed to get on a hot streak with seemingly end-of-the-road Jeff Garcia, and returned to the top of the NFC East? Can't blame or praise McNabb for that. Could it be because there are others on the team who matter, like underrated running back Brian Westbrook, demanding head coach Andy Reid and a normally reliable defense? Um, sure it could! But McNabb remains the key..."
McNabb was having an amazinf fantasy saeson before the injury. I think he may actually have good value again on draft day this year as well - you can't predict injuries, just prepare your team with solid backup options and play the waiver wire well, so I like the value here with McNabb.
Key Offensive Additions
None
Key Offensive Position Analysis
Quarterback
"Until we actually see which plays the Eagles call in Week 1 at Green Bay, there's no way to know for sure if the Eagles will again throw more than any team in the NFL. Through 10 weeks last season, McNabb was not only fantasy football's best player, he was on his way to a historic season. Consider that McNabb played barely half a season and still was among the top 10 quarterbacks overall. He nearly beat out Tom Brady for fantasy points, and he was fantasy's No. 2 quarterback heading into the season. McNabb threw two or more touchdown passes in nine games, in part because the team was so pass-heavy. McNabb is 30 now, and coming off yet another season-ending injury, so the fact the team used its first draft pick on eventual replacement Kevin Kolb is meaningful. If, or when, McNabb gets hurt this season, A.J. Feeley will get another chance, with Kolb waiting in the wings. The goal is not to need him for two years, at least..."
Again, good value here as he is not ranked in the top three at QB by most and could have another "historic year". If he slides on draft day and I grab him, I will follow with a back up QB pretty quickly though to cover for any lost time.
Running backs
"Westbrook became the center of the new balanced offense when McNabb went down, and he sure didn't look tired, hurt or overworked down the stretch. Instead, he thrived with the extra work, rewarding fantasy owners with career bests across the board. Despite all that, the Eagles have been looking for a larger battering ram for years, and think they found help in Penn State's Tony Hunt, a rookie who should at least figure into the goal-line situations. Buckhalter is still around, but there's been little need in fantasy to handcuff him to Westbrook. Hunt, on the other hand, could be that guy..."
Westbrook is a guy who thus far seems to always outperform his draft position (call him the anti-Tiki in this respect). Since he is not a pound away RB and does a lot of damage through the air, it seems like his value always takes a few hits in the draft and he drops a bit lower than he should. Again this new rookie being a potential goal line TD vulture will scare some folks off and he may drop to another good value spot for a solid, consistent fantasy scorer.
Wide receivers
"Reid has always treated his wide receivers as replaceable parts, letting game breakers like Stallworth walk when they wanted too much money, and thinking that McNabb will always find a way, no matter to whom he throws. It's the system, silly, that makes the stars for Reid, not the other way around. Reggie Brown is a solid No. 1 receiver whom fantasy owners will grab among the top 20 at the position, while Curtis comes over from the Rams to start. Curtis is quick, but doesn't quite have Stallworth's speed, and won't average 19.1 yards per catch, but he should be productive. Hank Baskett and Greg Lewis aren't stars, but they're more than capable of being No. 3 options on this team..."
Hmmm - I've heard that WR replacable parts thing before and it was with the Patriots who now seem to have abandoned that strategy. I guess it will take Reid another season or two to follow that path and realize you need top talent at WR. Reggie brown may be that sort of top talent starting to emerge though as he did post good #s last year. For a solid #1 NFL WR, he may be a bit forgotten on fantasy draft day, but
Bottom Line
"McNabb has a lot to prove this season, whether he shows it in his play or in his ability to just stay on the field. The surprise drafting of Kolb poses no immediate threat, but certainly the point was made. McNabb needs to take the Eagles not only to a division title, but far in the playoffs. In terms of personnel, on both sides of the ball, the Eagles can compete and return to another Super Bowl. And whether this happens or not, McNabb will be the one being watched the most. Fantasy owners probably won't target McNabb among the top five at the position, but the risk does carry with it reward. Philly had the league's No. 2 offense a year ago, and should again give the fantasy football world plenty to enjoy..."
Amazing to think that this team had so much production on offense last year! My view is that McNabb is worth the risk based on his somewhat depressed current draft status. That could change with a few more awesome pre-season outings for him, but I like the huge upside - why not take a chance on getting the #1 performing Fantasy QB in the 5th round? SO I say if he stays there, draft him and then draft another QB as insurance within a few more rounds (like Kitna perhaps). Then you have someone in case MCNabb goes down. I always have a hard time with Westbrook - great year last year, but I'm not comfortable with a top 7 pick on him. I also think Brown has upside at WR but is getting picked too soon for someone who may not end up being MCNabb's favorite WR (Curtis may step in there).
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Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Predictions
Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Preview
key excerpts from espn.com's Pittsburgh Steelers Fantasy Football Outlook article.
Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...
For full article please click here
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/2007draftkit/story?id=2951178
"Last season, the luster of the Steelers' amazing run to a Super Bowl XL victory wore off quickly. Pittsburgh lost six of its first eight games in 2006, and while the team rebounded to finish with a .500 record, the disappointing season led to notable changes. Bill Cowher retired, offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt left for Arizona...Former Vikings defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin will be under the microscope as he becomes only the 16th coach in the 74-year history of the franchise, and just the third to hold the position since 1969..."
New head coach, new offense, first time this new head coach had ever created an offense, lost offensive guru Whiesnhunt. All in all I would give all Steelers players a few nudges down the charts.
Key Offensive Additions
Head coach Mike Tomlin
Key Offensive Position Analysis
Quarterback
"Bruce Arians was promoted from receivers coach to offensive coordinator, and will give Ben Roethlisberger more responsibility in running the offense. The Steelers quarterback never got in a consistent flow last season because of well-documented physical issues, and now he'll have the chance to not only regain his past winning form, but also to guide a more wide-open offensive attack. The Steelers will spread the field with more multiple-receiver sets, and Roethlisberger will be set free to use more no-huddle looks and make more changes at the line of scrimmage. The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that Roethlisberger helped Arians rewrite the new playbook, so Roethlisberger should feel comfortable running the offensive attack. Roethlisberger has a lot to prove in 2007. He's not afraid to throw deep when he breaks the pocket or to head for a touchdown run when he is near the goal line. A more confident Roethlisberger will make fewer mistakes, if the Steelers play from behind less often and the quarterback won't have his preseason or playing time interrupted by health issues. Roethlisberger will re-emerge as a quality fantasy passer..."
Way too flowery an analysis for me here. I would not want Big Ben as my starting fantasy football QB and if you just read this it makes him sound like he will be awesome. I do not agree. Too much unknown here for me with the new system and a team that I think is on the decline.
Running Backs
"The Steelers will be careful not to overwork Parker, but he'll remain their clear featured back and will get enough touches and scores to remain among fantasy football's best running backs in 2007. Parker has already proved he won't back down from running inside or near the goal line, and ESPN still has him projected for 10 rushing touchdowns. He's a great pick as a No. 1 fantasy running back in the second half of the first round..."
I think he is easily the brightest fantasy football star on this team and love his ability to break the lonf ones as fast Willie! But, if I were picking early in the "second 1/2 of the first round of the draft" I would still probably look elsewhere, but I would not hesitate to grab him at spots 8 and on unless something unexpected were to occur...
Wide Receivers
"Hines Ward battled knee and hamstring troubles last season, and saw his touchdown total fall from 11 in 2005 to six last season. Look for him to rebound in the scoring department this season, because Roethlisberger will rely heavily on Ward in the passing game. Santonio Holmes, who endured some rough times as a rookie early in 2006 before showing some late flashes of promise, is a breakthrough candidate. He'll be Roethlisberger's top deep threat and will be a good bargain choice in the later rounds of many drafts..."
I'm less bullish on Ward, I think he is reliable, which is good, but do not expect a big upside bounce.
Tight Ends
"Third-round pick Matt Spaeth will quickly become a factor as Pittsburgh looks to employ more double tight end sets this year. He doesn't figure to get nearly as many looks as Heath Miller, but at 6-foot-7 and 265 pounds, Spaeth does have a lot of future potential as a big target in the red zone. Tight end Heath Miller will get more scoring chances this season and will be a fine value pick when the elite tight ends are off the board..."
Six foot Seven - I look forward to seeing that rookie rolling down field! To me, Heath Miller is the perfect poster boy for the problem with the "non-elite" tight ends. This group of hopefuls is bound to have one or two emerge as good fantasy players, but most will be way too inconsistent nonfactors on the offenses. I don't see enough to think that Heath will be one of the former and not the laters her to want to draft hime - BUT if it looks like Spaeth is just a blocker or total non-factor based on the preseason, that could change (3rd round TE pick is pretty early if that is the case though). I would hold off for now on a TE pick here.
Kicker
"Jeff Reed missed seven field-goal attempts last season and saw his overall point total drop from 117 in '05 to 101 in 2006. He's another candidate for a bounce-back season with the reinvigorated offense..."
Not a bad call and a bargain this year which is good to look at for your kicker pick.
Defense
"Don't draft the Steelers' defense too early based on reputation. It will still be a good starting unit, but against teams like the Bengals, Seahawks and Rams, Pittsburgh will still give up some big pass plays. The Steelers allowed 21 touchdown passes in 2006. Only four AFC teams surrendered more..."
Overated based on old reputation.
Bottom Line
"The Steelers may be searching for new leaders this season, but Tomlin will quickly point the team in the right direction with his motivational approach. He'll run a tough camp, but the Steelers will be well-prepared to rebound when the season starts. They will definitely contend for an AFC wild-card berth, and a rejuvenated Roethlisberger and Ward will serve fantasy players well. The Steelers do have some tough challenges on the schedule and must hope the offensive line comes together in camp, but they have enough overall talent to be a quality source of fantasy production throughout the season..."
Again way too optimistic. I think this team will be around 500 at best and not compete for any sort of playoff bearth. And where's the shout out to Willie Parker? Ben will not be a quality starter, Ward will be a consistent #2 quality guy, but Fast Willie is the man here.
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San Diego Chargers Fantasy Footaball Predictions
San Diego Chargers Fantasy Football Analysis
Here are key excerpts from espn.com's San Diego Chargers Fantasy Football Outlook article.
Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...
For full article please click here:
"Last season, the Chargers dominated the league in the regular season, winning 14 games, including their final 10 contests. All the success, however, didn't last into the postseason, when San Diego made an abrupt exit at the hands of the Patriots. The Marty Schottenheimer era came to a disappointing end, but most of the starters who led the Chargers to the NFL's best record return in 2007. This remains a Super Bowl contender that suffered both its regular-season losses by only three points in 2006 and will be on a mission to make some real postseason noise. San Diego has a great mix of superstars and promising players who will serve fantasy teams well as the Chargers position themselves for a top seed in the AFC playoffs again..."
Key Offensive Additions
Head coach Norv Turner
WR Craig Davis
Key Offensive Position Breakdown
Quarterbacks
"You'll see added versatility in the passing game, where Rivers will continue to evolve. He's a smart young passer who makes quick reads and is a natural leader. Rivers will have a healthy variety of targets to throw to, and you'll see impressive results and more consistency this season. Rivers is going to establish himself as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2007. His owners will be able to start him regularly with a lot of confidence..."
Rivers is poised for a good year - people tend to undervalue him because the WRs are unknown and Tomlinson is such a great runner. Keep in mind though that LT catches a lot of passes as well, and Gates is pretty much a top #1 WR who just happens to play Tight End. I don't think Rivers is a top spectacular fantasy choice, but I like him to exceed his usual pick spot around 12th for QBs - I think he will crack the top 10 as well.
Running backs
"The praise can flow endlessly as we describe the best running back and consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy football. Tomlinson has it all: vision, strength, unique cutback ability and breakaway speed. He's durable, although the Chargers might elect to reduce his workload slightly in 2007 to ensure he doesn't get nicked up. ESPN still projects him for 1,706 rushing yards and 28 total touchdowns this season, so he certainly will be a safe No. 1 pick in any format. Question marks seem to surround every other top running back, but not Tomlinson, who has long been the model of annual excellence and has shown no signs of slowing down. Much of Tomlinson's success can be attributed to a stellar offensive line, anchored by a dominant left side that includes guard Kris Dielman and rising star Marcus McNeill. The Chargers ultimately decided not to part with Michael Turner in the offseason, and he'll spend one more season as LaDainian Tomlinson's backup before breaking free to explore free agency. Turner is a tough downhill runner who also can bust loose for big gainers, and he could start for many other NFL teams. He'll be a fine fantasy starter if an injury strikes Tomlinson at any point. Many dynasty and keeper league owners will retain the rights to Turner this season as they look forward to his finally fulfilling his potential as a featured back next season..."
It's been a long time since there has been so much distance between the #1 pick and the options for the #2 pick in fantasy football. No one, including me, can come up with any reasons not to pick LT #1 on draft day.
Wide receivers
"Vincent Jackson is one of the top sleeper candidates for 2007. He's a nifty package of size, strength, speed and hands. At 6-5, 241 pounds, he's going to be a major challenge for many defensive backs, and he will build on the late promise he showed last year. Jackson caught three touchdown passes in the final two games of 2006, and with defenses focusing on Tomlinson and Gates so often, he'll have a lot of opportunities to get open in his breakthrough campaign. Parker is a decent possession receiver, but he did not catch a touchdown pass last year and will fall on the depth chart. The ability to throw to multiple targets such as Gates, Jackson, Floyd and Parker, though, will keep defenses guessing against Rivers and give them more headaches than ever, especially as they will still have to find ways to contain Tomlinson. Malcom Floyd had his 2006 season cut short by a severe ankle injury. At 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, he's a prime red zone target for Rivers and should have a few impressive outings in 2007. He's still a work in progress, though, and won't be a reliable fantasy starter. Rookie Craig Davis is a smart, smooth pass-catcher who can makes things happen after the reception..."
I guess this was written before the Parker injury. Now it seems that everyone is jumping on a late pick for Davis who has been awesome in camp as a rookie. But keep in mind what it says here about Floyd (yet another big red zome target WR). So I'd probably pass on those two and focus on Vincent Jackson if the price is right -and seems like it is likely to be so in most drafts. The 3 things I like best about him: 1- Came on strong at the end of last year 2- Even if no one else emerges opposite him at WR he CAN NOT be double teamed as Gates and LT require so much defensive attention 3 - This offense should throw up some good #s.
Tight ends
"Antonio Gates is easily the best tight end in fantasy football. Gates meshed quickly with Rivers when the young quarterback took over as a starter for the first time in 2006. There was no major drop-off in his production, as feared, and Gates should easily be the class of the weakest position in fantasy again this year. He's a fine third-round pick who also will benefit from having more complements in the passing game this year..."
This one amazes me too - how can pundits now be supporting a 3rd round pick on a TE! Gates is the clear best at his position and should be picked several rounds before any other TE comes off the board. To me that means my 4th round pick is a possibility and he is worth it there. I don't expect him to make it that far though and I will not spend a 3rd rounder on him (how can you pass on a top 5 WR, top 3 QB or a top 20 RB to land Gates?). Not worth it - stick to your guns, take him if others pass and you have the chance in the 4th, but wait on TE otherwise and get a strong upside guy like McMichael (way later) or Davis (some what later) in the draft.
Kicker
"Kicker Nate Kaeding made nearly 90 percent of his attempts last year and scored 136 points. He clearly has arrived as an elite fantasy kicker..."
The Chargers are like the Miami Hurricanes of Fantasy Football with top picks all over the placeKaeding may be a good Kicker pick since you will not have to jump on him as early as some other favorite sons at Kicker.
Defense
" Defensively, the unit is anchored by monstrous nose tackle Jamal Williams and superstar outside linebacker Shawne Merriman, who led the NFL in sacks in 2006. Ted Cottrell, who was out of the league last year, won't tinker too much with one of fantasy football's best units. The Chargers should survive the losses of Donnie Edwards and Randall Godfrey at linebacker, and play in the secondary continues to improve. Cornerback Quentin Jammer had a fine season in 2006..."
I like this D too, but this year to me seems like a great one to wait and take a D in the last round - Chicago is going too early, Baltimore is overrated, and New England and San Diego are still also costly picks to give up.
Bottom Line
"Turner will direct a strong offense that will stand up to the tough teams on the schedule. Although they won't win 14 games again, the Chargers should be favored to win the AFC West. There will be some stern tests for young guys such as Rivers and Jackson as they face the likes of the Bears, Patriots, Colts and Ravens. Such matchups will build character, though, and make the up-and-coming players very useful in the stretch run..."
This is such an odd one - get rid of Marty after a great season, replace him with another old time, retred coach who never really has been that good and yet everyone just assumes that all the skill players will end up the same as last year. I think Turner is not as good a coach as Marty, but is good with QBs. They also D coaches and D players, so I think they may be forced to score some more points this year. In my book though, things like head coaching changes mean more risk for players in the fantasy world and I take them all down a slight notch accordingly - to account for the unknown. This still leaves LT and Gates as the clear best at their positions in the entire league, but nocks down the D, the WRs and even the Kicker a little bit so that I will probably not be drafting any SD players this year (unless I have the #1 pick) as my rankings may be just a little lower than others.
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San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Predictions
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Analysis
Here are key excerpts from espn.com's San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Outlook article.
Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...
For full article please click here:
"Last season, the 49ers moved towards respectability, winning seven games and showing the potential of becoming a better team if they addressed a few key issues. San Francisco moved to take the ballclub to the next level this past offseason, adding notable playmakers on both offense and defense, which is where the team needed the most help. As the 2007 season looms, the Niners are actually looking like a serious contender for a playoff berth in their third season under head coach Mike Nolan..."
The only thing that worries me about the 49ers is that it is almost unanamous how much everyone thinks this could be a playoff team - especially me. How can a team on the rise be so universally considered to have risen. Well ay any rate I like them this year and like their chances to be a good offensive producing team for fantasy with a much improved D.
Key Offensive Additions
Key Offensive Position Analysis
Quarterbacks
"Smith should continue to improve as a passer. He's smart, a natural leader, and displays athleticism and the potential to execute a crisp, controlled passing game. Smith doesn't have the weapons or the knack for throwing too many home-run balls yet, but he will be much more efficient this season and will become a top fantasy reserve..."
Agree - and think he has some upside to be worth a starting role later in ther season if he puts it all together. For now I think around the 15th ranked QB on my charts.
Running Backs
"A broken right hand could force Gore to miss the preseason. He has bounced back from bigger injury concerns before and is expected to be ready for the regular season. The injury shouldn't cause major concerns among fantasy leaguers who intend to draft him early in the first round. Gore's fumbling issues were gone by late last season, and it's unlikely the injury will hurt his overall value much. Gore firmly established himself as a fantasy superstar last season. He has a great burst through the line, is unafraid of banging out tough yards, and can explode for longer runs. He quickly has become a favored safety target as a receiver for Smith. Gore plays big for his size (5-9, 212), and if the Niners give him enough occasional rest this year, he won't break down..."
Love Frank the Tank! Good upside on an up and coming team and had a great year last year. He also to me though shows the lack of real no-brainer talent at RB this year - after LT and Jackson it seems like you can put some ? marks on the rest of the gang. I tend to think the hand injury here is a good thing since he will be rested when the season starts (BUT what if something happens like he can't hols on to the ball as strongly as he did last year?). I say go with him as the #5 pick this year and maybe even #4 - this supports my new RB draft strategy though to build up amazing depth in case anything happens to take out any of your stud RBs.
Wide Receivers
"Darrell Jackson, who fell out of favor in Seattle despite operating as the team's most dependable receiver for a long time, will become Smith's top target. Jackson is tenacious, runs good routes and relishes the weekly challenges of facing top cover cornerbacks. There have been annual concerns about his durability, though, and he is still on the mend from a turf toe injury. Jackson will draw a decent amount of double-teams until another wideout steps forward to become a more consistent threat. Jackson will be a good No. 2 fantasy receiver, but not quite on the level of his Seattle days...Arnaz Battle is a respectable possession receiver, but he has also gotten banged up often and won't be dependable...Ashley Lelie gets yet another new start, but fantasy players shouldn't expect him to make the most of this latest opportunity. Lelie can get downfield, but lacks focus, concentration and doesn't run good routes. Lelie had a prime chance to rise to the top of a thin Atlanta receiving crew, but disappeared too often. He's a geniune bust who should not be drafted in fantasy leagues..."
Tight Ends
"..A broken leg hindered his progress last season, but Davis will be ready to explode over a full campaign in 2007. He has amazing speed for a big man and recognizes coverages well. Davis has outstanding leaping ability and great hands, and he will become Smith's prime red-zone target. Don't hesitate to draft him as your starting tight end in 2007 if you miss out on the top two or three guys at the position..."
Davis is my prime target at TE this year and if he does not get overpicked by some other owner I will grab hime (this assumes that Gates goes too early - like the 3rd round as well). I think Davis will have a great year and end up in the top 5 at TE.
Kicker
"Joe Nedney scored 116 points last year and is a solid option as the Niners rise on offense..."
Good value here as the team on the rise tends to produce good kicker points and Nedney is a good kicker in a good situation - albeit not a great stadium to kick in.
Defense
"... The team has made more significant strides forward on defense. Cornerback Nate Clements was widely considered the best available player in free agency, and ex-Raven tackle Aubrayo Franklin will be the needed anchor of the 3-4 defense up front. Rookie inside linebacker Patrick Willis has immediate promise as a relentless playmaker who also bears watching in individual defender leagues. San Francisco has a solid back seven and is one of the sleeper defensive units for fantasy purposes in 2007..."
This D is one of the reasons I think it's a good year to wait until the last round of the draft to jump on a D. They are still under the radar and, while I would not have them in my top 10 - if somehow the other D's I would expect to land at the end of the draft are gone, this is one of the two D's I'm confident I can draft just in case and still feel good about.
Bottom Line
"San Francisco's fortunes are definitely looking upward. There will be much more balance of both sides of the ball in 2007. Gore will continue to be the crux of the offense, while Smith will become more poised at the controls. Davis is a great candidate for a big breakthrough season. The defense will be sturdier from wire to wire this year, and the 49ers will be Seattle's biggest challengers for the NFC West title. Their key players will compete in pivotal contests during the weeks of your fantasy playoffs..."
Let me translate that into fantasy terms - Gore is worthy of top 5 pick consideration, Alex Smith is a good backup QB to draft if you are inclined to wait until late in the draft to get your 2nd QB, Jackson is a WR with good potential value since he is sort of forgotten about so far this year, Davis will be a top 5 TE, Nedney is a solid Kicker (10th to 14th ranked for me) and the D is a great safety valve if you wait until the ned and all the other owners screw you by picking all of your top 10+ options there.
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St Louis Rams Fantasy Football Predictions
St. Louis Rams Fantasy Football Analysis
Here are key excerpts from espn.com's Rams Fantasy Football Outlook article.
Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...
For full article please click here:
"In their first season under Scott Linehan, the Rams demonstrated they could still score a lot of points with a new look on offense. Gone were the downfield passing fireworks of the Mike Martz era, replaced by smashmouth running and a controlled passing game. St. Louis still scored 360.4 yards per game, ranking fourth in the NFC. The St. Louis defense, however, allowed 23.8 points per game, fourth-worst in the conference. The team was especially bad against the run, allowing an NFC-worst 145.4 yards per game. The Rams could only manage an 8-8 record and missed the playoffs. The outlook isn't much different heading into 2007; the team once again boasts a strong offense and a shaky defense..."
Rads like music to the Fantasy Footballers ears - great offense and week defense. A lot of draftable options on this team!
Key Offensive Additions
WR Drew Bennett
Key Offensive Position Analysis
Quarterbacks
"Marc Bulger is a perfect fit in Linehan's offense, which calls for more quick decisions and accurate throws than the old Martz style of offense. Bulger is coming off the best season of his career and is destined for another fine campaign with additional weaponry that will make him more effective in the red zone. I look for Bulger to set a new career high in touchdown passes again, bettering last year's total of 24. He'll be one of the top five quarterbacks picked in most yearly fantasy leagues..."
I too love Bulger this year. It is like Brady in New England - with so many options, he is the one that will benefit most from a Fantasy production standpoint. I would work hard to figure out the right time to draft him in your draft this year, and the fact that he is not one of the top 3 means he will sometimes be a bargain (I have seen him go in the 10th round of some mocks! But would expect him to not make it past the 8th usually - that's great value for a top 5 QB guy!)
Running Backs
"Steven Jackson is widely regarded as the second-best player in fantasy football. Jackson is an outstanding inside runner who also accelerates quickly once he breaks to the second level of defenders. He can run over opponents, make them miss, and even carry them on his back for extra yardage. Jackson was a great surprise as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. He is very dangerous in open space. The Rams will look to reduce his overall workload a bit this season, because they want to keep him fresh and will have more options in the passing game. There's no apparent reason, though, for him not to excel again, and he's the safest pick at the running back position outside of some guy named Tomlinson...rookie Brian Leonard will instantly be a valuable performer. He can spell Steven Jackson when the starter needs a rest, and Leonard can grind out tough yards and also catch passes out of the backfield. He can even line up as a lead blocker for Jackson in some sets. Leonard will steal a few goal-line chances from Jackson, but he'll add yet another dimension to a greatly balanced offense and would produce steady numbers if Jackson were to get injured..."
This one makes me glad I don't have the 2nd pick in my fantasy league. Who wants to pick a stud RB that might not get the goal line carries? He still has to be your pick there, but not you have to spend a few minutes worrying about vultiring!
Wide Receivers
"Torry Holt is Mr. Reliability. He has come through with seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and has caught 41 touchdown passes in the past four seasons. This season, defenses won't be able to double-team him often with more quality complements in the passing game. Holt underwent "routine surgery" on his right knee in February, but there are no indications the procedure was a major concern. You can draft Holt again with great confidence as your No. 1 fantasy wide receiver. saac Bruce will turn 35 during the season and is no longer a major downfield threat, but he continues to rely on effort and experience to make important catches. Bruce is still a valuable playmaker for the Rams, as evidenced by his 74 catches and 1,098 receiving yards in 2006, but he is no longer a dependable fantasy starter. He has caught only three touchdown passes in each of the past two seasons...Drew Bennett gives Marc Bulger a big possession target who will be a major presence on third downs and in the red zone. Bennett will likely open the season as the third wideout on the depth chart, but he will challenge Isaac Bruce for a starting job. Bennett will appear in a lot of three-receiver sets and you can expect him to be an immediate statistical contributor. Bennett will be very useful in fantasy leagues even if he can't vault past Bruce on the dpeth chart..."
3 talented wideouts and a strong receiving TE - that's why I want Bulger but is why I don't feel great about any of these WRs based on over excitement about them and too much spreading the ball around. I like Holt in the top 5 or 6 at WR still (but probably will look elsewhere with a pick at that point), I think Bennett is a great addition, but think he is now overhyped by fantasy prognosticators, and also think Bruce is not likely to have enough upside to warrant much consideration.
Tight Ends
" Randy McMichael was a fine offseason addition who never produced as hoped in Miami. Now he finally gets the chance to play with a quality quarterback, and you can expect McMichael to re-emerge as a very good fantasy starter. McMichael will be another prime target for Bulger in the red zone, and I'm expecting him to have his best season yet..."
Since McMichael has not always been a "good egg" I'd like to see how he fits into the team and gels with Bulger before draft night, but I think he is a good option since he is not really getting a lot of hype here - I think some people forget about his mad skills (of course Jeramy Stevens supposedly had mad skills too). I like him as alter Te pick who is worthy of a starting role on your team - but I do want to see him in action first.
Kicker
"Jeff Wilkins is an annual standout who made nearly 87 percent of his field-goal attempts and totaled 131 points in 2006. He is always one of the first kickers off the board in fantasy drafts..."
Should have a great season, like the O, like the field, like his leg - just dont want to burn too early a pick on a kicker (and if I miss him I can find another good story at the kicker position no doubt).
Bottom Line
"Expect the Rams to engage in a lot of shootouts, especially in the wide-open NFC West. They'll win enough high-scoring affairs to stay in the race for a playoff berth until the final week or two. Jackson, Bulger and Holt will be pillars of fantasy success, and Bennett and McMichael are outstanding value selections. This will be the most entertaining team that just misses the NFC playoffs..."
Is this the most fantasy loaded team? Outside of at D I think they are #2 RB, top 5 QB, top 5 WR, top 3 K, a strong TE and maybe 2 other WRs worth drafting! And don't forget about the new RB Leonard - worth a late round flyer perhaps- Like the sound of the Wild West (NFC West that is).
----------------Fantasy Football Expert Wizard----------------------------------------------
Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Preview
Seattle Seahawks Fantasy Football Analysis
Here are key excerpts from espn.com's Seahawks Fantasy Football Outlook article.
Please note, my thoughts/opinions are added in this bold heading text...
For full article please click here
"Last season, the Seahawks battled through key injuries and spotty play to win their third consecutive NFC West title and advanced to the second round of the postseason. While this team isn't nearly as strong as the one that appeared in Super Bowl XL, it is still one of the best in the conference. Seattle can slug it out with anyone offensively, and while the defense isn't great, it could be respectable in 2007..."
This team is getting pretty much ignored in expectations both real and fantasy. The question is, are they now deserving of little respect? or was last year's poor results in fantasy stats due to injuries and their stars will bounce back - I tend to be in the camp of the later option here.
Key Offensive Player Additions
Key Offensive Position Overview
Quarterbacks
Matt Hasselbeck was plagued by injuries as well last season, as he missed four games because of a knee injury while also dealing with finger and rib problems. He also underwent offseason surgery on his nonthrowing shoulder. Hasselbeck is a master of Mike Holmgren's West Coast passing game and can be a very efficient fantasy passer when he gets consistent protection and support from his running game. He's not an elite fantasy quarterback, but he can be very reliable and sometimes delivers outstanding performances. He's definitely a top-10 fantasy quarterback and an ideal starting option when he faces NFC West opponents. He has 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions in divisional games over the past two seasons.
Running Backs
Shaun Alexander is coming off the first injury-marred season of his career and he will be 30 years old when the season starts. There are no lingering major concerns about the left foot that caused him to miss six games in 2006, though, and Alexander will be determined to prove he can still play at a high level. Alexander's running style has always caused tacklers to miss, and he has never been a regularly punishing runner, so he's not going to wear down yet. ESPN projects him for 1,449 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2007, and he will be worth a top-five pick in yearly leagues.
Wide Receivers
With Darrell Jackson gone, Deion Branch now becomes the team's No. 1 wideout, and will have the best season of his career. Branch was often banged up as a top target with the Patriots, but he'll face fewer double-teams than he did in the past. He will be a very good No. 2 fantasy wide receiver in his first full season with the Seahawks. D.J. Hackett is the favorite to win the other starting job, as he has impressed in spurts before. Hackett has great athleticism and leaping ability, but there have been concerns about his focus early in camp. Hackett can be a big-play man for Hasselbeck and is a top sleeper candidate, but if he doesn't play well in the preseason, Burleson could challenge him for playing time.
Bottom Line
"The Seahawks do have a formidable schedule and their divisional opponents are improving. More bad luck like last year's could derail them on the road to another playoff berth, but this team is still strong enough overall to battle for another division title right down to the final week. There will be some disappointing offensive outings against the likes of the Bears and Ravens, but this team will be highly motivated to show it is still one of the NFC's best. Seattle will fight hard and earn its place in the postseason, with a rejuvenated Alexander leading the charge..."
I think they have one more year to rule as the division champs. Also, since the division will be a high scoring one overall, I like their chances to put up some very strong fantasy #s. Alexander will be worth a top 5 pick (around exactly that spot), Branch will step up and be great draft value in fantasy, Hasslebeck will be ok as a fantasy starter, Josh Brown will be a good fantasy kicker who is consistent and long and relatively underappreciated in fantasy leagues - so a good option in all likelihood in the last round of the draft.
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