Fantasy Football Wizard

I've been doing fantasy football for two decades now and one thing I have learned throughout so many successful seasons at it is the keys to winning are:

1. Leverage the experts expertise
2. Keep your preparation simple
3. Pay attention

The first two are the key ingredients to enjoying the incredible fun that fantasy football brings, AND still maintaining a good life balance of marriage, family and yes even work!

The third one is key to the whole thing though, if you don't enjoy watching NFL games, sportscenter highlights and talking about NFL football, football, football then why get into the fantasy football sport to begin with?

Not sure if I'll be able to get to the team by team lookins this season (2008), but I really nailed it last year - this year looking to focus more on the player rankings as that's key to a good season - far too many Fantasy Football Coaches (or GMs if you prefer come fantasy football draft night) follow along blindly with one of the consensus ranking sources and end up with an average fantasy lineup that matches a boring draft flow so focus on these keys:

2008 Fantasy Football draft keys:

1 - I said this last year (see below) and now it is catching on - don't bite on the RB-RB strategy (see reasons from last year's advice which still apply)

2 - Believe your own hype. How many drafters last year passed on Joseph Addai in round one or Tom Brady a bit later on because it was "too early to take them" so they took Sean Alexander and Larry Johnson and headed down the tubes for 2007. Bottom line is if you think someone will have a big year jump on them!

3 - AA - Always Adapt. I've done many many mock drafts again this year and still see the same mistake I see many other owners make on the real Fantasy Football draft night. They are tied to getting a QB by rounf 3, TE by round 6...Whatever rigid foolishness they have bought into. The way to draft is to perfectly match "best available athlete" strategy with the "pick him later if he will be there later" strategy. Here's my example from this year. I feel very strongly that there are 4 QBs that will end this year well ahead of the pack and they are:

Tom Brady

Peyton Manning

Tony Romo

Drew Brees

Despite the fact that I would love to have one of those guys, I often do not get them on my team in Mock Drafts because they have all been highly valued and tend to be gone by the middle of round 2. An unfortunate case where my rankings are pretty much in line with overall fantasy rankings. So - some teams would then say - ohh I missed out on Brees who I wanted, so I better pick another QB in round 3 or 4 (I call this the lemer draft). While there are some other ok options (McNabb has some upside for example), if I miss the big 4, I adapt and roll with it and grab two upside guys - or maybe even 3 later on in the draft (and there is a lot of other QBs that slide so I can wait until round 9 or 10 to look at QB)

So - those are the big 3 winning ways this year...

Hi - I know this only has minor fantasy football impact, but since I got them all righ last yea - and didn't even place a bet in Vegas! - wanted to give out my projections for NFL division winners for 2008 as it's that time of year:

AFC East:

Winner = New England Patriots

Honorable Mention: Last year I said none as the division was lame - this year I still think it's a landslide, but will give the Jets the runner up nod

This should be a pretty easy division race as the also rans really all have questions. Too many people hyping the Jets (did improve to now have a good O-line, but still too many other problems - I would have picked the Bills over them, but now with Brett Favre, they actually do have a QB who can take advantage of the O-line and should reach 8 to 9 wins)

AFC North:

Winner = Browns

Honorable Mention: Steelers

Ravens are falling fast, Bengals are a mess, Browns will not be great, but will beat out a Steelers team that is too dependant on a few good men.

AFC South:

Winner = Indy. Colts

Honorable Mention: Texans

This division has some talent this year. I think the Texans will continue to rise up and contend, Jax is not great but still better than 500 and the Titans have a coach who maximizes their efforts, but I'll pick the Texans as the surprise 2nd place team.

AFC West:

Winner = San Diego Chargers

Honorable Mention: Cake walk

The Super Chargers will win this division again -especially if Rivers continues to improve (they do have the best player in the game in LT) and a strong history of regular season success. Denver is a bit off this year, the Raiders are rising fast but still a year away and The Chiefs may be the worst team in the NFL (certainly have the worst coach).

NFC East:

Winner = Dallas Cowboys

Honorable Mention: All three teams

This is a balanced division of good teams again and any one of the 3 could put it together and take second. I see it as The Redskins surpsising folks and making a playoff run, the Eagles as being a dissapointment and failing to beat a .500 record and the Giants being just pretty good again (yes I know they had an amazing playoff run, but I say one and done). Cowboys are the cream of the crop in the NFC.

NFC North:

Winner = Minn. Vikings

Honorable Mention: Chicago Bears

It's time for the Vikings to put it together even without Favre. Stacked on D and capable on O. The Favre debacle (why not welcome him back guys?) will tear The Pack asunder this year. Tthe Bears are declining and the Lions still trying to figure it all out - but they will win some this year.

NFC South:

Winner = New Orleans Saints

Honorable Mention: Tampa Bay Bucs

The Saints are really potent this yearf on O and will win with some scoring to cover for a somewhat better D. Bucs have a strong D and adding Favre will help.

NFC West:

Winner = Seattle Seahawks

Honorable Mention: San Fran 49ers

I would love to go with the surging, vastly improving 9ers to take this division, as I really like where they are heading (great draft choices, good coaching, smart free agency/player moves), but the Seahawks to me are a team that can still do it one more time.

Since my wife is observant (i.e. notices I am addicted to NFL football) and she cares about me (imagine that!), she bought me several fantasy football books for my last birthday. I appreciate the effort and am an avid reader, but in general this sort of book does little for me. I'll start reading the 2nd one now, but the first one was actullay pretty good - because it was funny! It was also a short read as you can skim through lots of it. To me the funniest parts were the quotes from folks like Ali, Woody Allen, and others that have nothing to do with fantasy football but are still funny to read and would be great to pull out at the right time in smack talk leagues. Here's a link to this book in case you are interested...

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1416909966?ie=UTF8&tag=fantfoothub-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1416909966"

It's called "Why Fantasy Football Matters: (And Our Lives Do Not)"

Ok - I have now read the second book my wife bought me and I have to say that I can not say much good our interesting about this one. In fact it not only clarifys what is wrong with Fantasy Football books, it also shows what is wrong with Amazon's customer reviews. This book was highly rated and I dont think anyone not related to the author would give it real praise! So beware of Amazon's rankings for less high volume books as they could be stuffed with friends and family reviews! But now on to why this and other "Strategy" books are bad for Fantasy Football -

Books of strategies on games of chance (like blackjack, poker and Backgammon) can all be very useful and while you will still need luck to win, the strategies are predicated on statistically predictable possible outcomes. This is NOT the case with fantasy football (take note ADP folks as this affects you as well!). A strategy of picking 3 running backs with your first 3 picks (for example) is only a good strategy if you pick running backs that end up performing well - if not, a strategy of picking a QB in the first round could be a better one - again if you pick the right QB. Something in the neighborhood of 1/2 of the top ten running backs picked will actually perform like top 10 backs in the coming season so the key is to spend all of your time, effort, research and all on rankings not on strategy. If I make the right picks, any strategy will pay off and if not, any strategy will fail. This if fundamentally different than poker/backgammon and while you do still need an element of luck, there is no set of known possible outcomes like rolling a die or dealing 5 of 52 cards (so this is what is very wrong with ADP as well - knowing that on average the 3rd highest scoring WR will score the same as the 9th highest QB and the 14th highest RB is completely useless unless you can properly identify not only the actual right 3rd WR but also the 9th QB and 14th RB - all nearly impossible and highly improbable. So dont waste your time with strategits books and ADP calculations - invest your time in watching games, reading about depth charts, O-lines, difficult schedules, and look for those spots where Talent find Opportunity...

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0977910504?ie=UTF8&tag=fantfoothub-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0977910504">Your Official Guide on How to Dominate Fantasy Football

That said, there are two things I will point out as interesting in this book:

1- He recommends drafting a TE very, very early to ensure that you get Antonio Gates - A flawed strategy in my book but one lots of people seem to be adopting as he is now going in the 3rd round!

2- He recomends targeting players with late bye weeks - and preferably the same late bye weeks for your starters! This one I actually like and embrace as it is so-counter intuitive to most newbie fantasy owners (at most drafts owners will laugh at the owner after the draft who had selecting to stud RBs and WR all with a week 9 bye - now think if that owner is really a shark who did it on purpose - not likely based on the muggles who have done this most often in my drafts, but here's the beautiful simple logic behind it (and note it is really only a good strategy in leages with limited teams making the playoff and with year end payoffs - not weekly prizes): I will not have to worry about players for most bye weeks and will field a strong team that should win against others facing some byes for every week but the one week (ergo my overall W-L record will be better this way) AND since it is a late bye week, I have plenty of time to make adjustments by then and determine real player values such that the trouble week may not even end up being a trouble week. So if you can handle the snickers and insults come draft night go for it!

My 2007 article (a year ahead of the curve

Is it realy all about the Running Backs?

Is anyone else tired of the RB-RB-RB fantasy football hype? Here's why it is overplayed:

1. More and more NFL teams are doing situational running back replacements and running back by committee
2. The 2 keys to success with each of your draft picks are to either lock in the most consistent scorer (consistency is hard to find in Fantasy Scoring) or maximize the potential upside of the pick (risk and reward decision)
3. Keep it simple (yes I will always say that everywhere and can not emphasize it enough - sorry to all the mathemagicians out there ;-)

So - sometimes a RB is your best bet for one, both - and dare I say it - none of your first two picks. The best league I was in last season had a super bowl champ (not me - for a change - I was the runner up sorry to say) that drafted Peyton Manning as his first pick and later in the season managed to use his excess strength at QB to trade for the stud RB that carried him to the championship). Meanwhile the poor guy who took Alexander number one was mired in mediocrity all season. Some "Experrts" like KFFL claim to have invented the RB theory, but Stud RBs were picked by savvy owners as long as Fantasy Football has been played. The key again is "value". So pick a stud RB if 1) He will score more for your team than picking the best available QB or WR AND 2) The RB that is left for you in your next pick is likely to be worse than what is available at WR and QB for that next pick.

I have sometimes picked three running backs in a row for my first 3 picks even in start 2 RB leagues, but this is a true exception and can work out, but only really in extreme circumstances.

You do need luck in fantasy football and your draft should be about combining as many consistent players with as many high upside players as you can to best prepare yourself for this "luck" - and this is regardless of what position they all play...