Getting into form and staying in form is the key to regular profits in sports betting. Using experts and every available analytical tool, I do the donkey work, so you don't back any!

I am not interested in small returns, but in unearthing the likely overpriced winners. Just look at racing results daily - how many are won by horses returned at 7/1 or bigger? Loads is the answer.

I intend to let you know these likley sorts, just to boost my ego and keep me active (as well as to bolster my own bank balance). So, follow me for a while and judge my credibility and add a few nice priced winners to your trolley. You might think I'm off mine at times - but hey, that's half the fun!

 And you will be singing the whole way to the bank tomorrow morning. The bet is on the hugely popular UK singing competition X Factor (similar to Americal Idol). The live elimination programme goes out this evening at 20.00 GMT and the favourite to go home is sixteen year old Lloyd Daniels. Currently he is trading on the exchanges at around 23/10.

He will NOT be going home. He is an ordinary singer at best, but the voters (mainly young girls) are potty about him. He murdered Katy Perry's "I kissed a girl" last night and received negative comments from the judges, but that will only serve to galvanise his supporters.

Lay him like mad. Fill your boots. It is easy money.

Sadly, a very good singer, Rachel Adedeji is likely to be in the bottom 2 and depending upon who else is with her, it may be she who gets the chop. She is around 3/1 to leave if you fancy a straight punt. But LAY Lloyd, he's not going anywhere other than into the next round.

I am pleased to report that both my X Factor bets were winners and if you did in fact "fill yer boots", then well done. However, it just goes to show the fickle nature of punting, as I have to admit that I was very lucky to collect.

Lloyd Daniels was saved by Simon refusing to support the better singer and leaving it to return to the public vote, which meant the dismissal of Rachel Adedeji. It was a cowardly and vindictive little ploy and it is Simon's nasty nature that may still cost his protege Danyl dearly.

But, laying Llloyd brought home the bacon (even if it was covered in sweat) and the bet on Rachel to go, also provided additional funds. So, 2 from 2 is a good start and I will seek to proffer further money winning opportunities as they appear.

It is a big week of EUFA Champions League action, so may have something for you on that score soon. Until then, KWKW (keep well, keep winning)

I have a 14/1 horse for you to back in a 7 runner field and a 27/1 Champions League four timer for you tonight to help boost the coffers. So, no messing, here they are.

Coeur de Lionne runs in the 15.50 at Kempton Park and is the outsider of the 7 runners. It is not hard to see why, as there is a decent Goldophin runner in the field and at least two others(Mafeking & Ascot Rock) who are in good form. But I like value and I can see a bit here as Ed Dunlop's 5 year old has raced 6 times on the all weather, scoring thrice at this track and finishing 2nd and 3rd in 2 of the other 3.

Two recent poor efforts mean this gelding is out of favour, but Dunlop has given him nearly seven weeks off and I am hoping he returns to the track today an eager beaver. Small stakes should be the order of the day as we are opposing a couple of likely sorts, but at 14/1 generally (more on the exchanges), I cannot resist a 1pt bet.

Another 1 pt bet is advised on the 27/1 four timer in the Champions League matches this evening. Liverpool need to win in France but Olimpique Lyon are a smart outfit and whilst the Reds lost at the weekend, Lyon won away from home and are very much in form. However, the Liverpool European pedigree is outstanding and I think this will end in stalemate at a generally available 9/4.

Similarly I expect Real Madrid to avoid defeat in Milan. They lost by 2-3 in a 5 goal thriller at the Bernabeu last week, but the Italians are always hard to master at home and again at 23/10, I think the draw is most likely. Add in fellow countrymen Juventus to win in Israel and Porto to collect all three points in Cyprus at 4/7 & 4/6 respectively and a tasty 27/1 four timer can reap rich rewards. Until next time, KWKW (keep well, keep winning)

Let's get the bad news out of the way first. Our 14/1 shot at Kempton yesterday came 3rd, with the favourite winning easily. It was still worth 1pt and if we continue to back horses which are overpriced in relation to their winning chances, then we will profit. The Goldophin string are in cracking form and all their current entries bear close inspection. Sadly, they are likely to be at short odds, so will have little or no appeal to me.

On the Champions League front we are in a lovely position. Our first 3 teams did as we wanted and we now await the Lyon v Liverpool game tonight to end in a draw to give us a 27pt profit. I still think this is the likeliest outcome, however, should you wish to lock in a GUARANTEED PROFIT, then do so by investing 10 points to win on Lyon at 7/5 and 8 points on Liverpool to win at 2/1. Marginally better odds are available if you hunt around. By doing this, you are then ensured of profit irrespective of the outcome. If Lyon win, you have a clear 5 point profit - the same should Liverpool triumph. If my original recommendation is right and it ends up all square, then you pocket a 9 point profit. This is guaranteed profit, however, if your view is that you only invested 1 point and want to realise the maximum returns, then you take the risk and let it play out without further wagers. But, in this game it is good to be able to take the gamble out of our bets and this you are able to do at this stage if you followed my advice and had the 1 point bet on this 4 timer. It is up to you, but I like GUARANTEED PROFITS.

I intend to study the matches tonight and the likely line ups to see if we can make a further wise investment, so do call back later. Until then, KWKW(keep well, keep winning)

As an addition to the above report on ensuring a GUARANTEED PROFIT following the Lyon Liverpool match tonight, I have decided to include a further 2 options, both of which will help to ensure bigger profits. Let's just recap.

Currently we are sitting on a 1 pt bet, which if our selected game tonight ends in a draw will allow us to collect 28 pts and make a 27 pt profit to our 1 pt stake.

As described above, we can now back both teams and guarantee a profit, though we have to stake a further 18pts and thus reduce our profit to either 5 pts or 9 pts, depending on the result. A guaranteed profit, but a lot less than we would like. So here are the other options to consider in our drive for greater guaranteed returns.

Currently the draw is trading at 5/2. We could now lay this for 6 pts and if the match ends in a draw, we have 15 pts to pay out, plus the 1 already staked, but collect 28 and thus make a 12 pt profit. If one team wins we collect 6 points from this lay, less the original 1 staked, making a 5 pt profit. In this scenario we guarantee a 12 pt profit instead of 9 in the event of a draw, but only secure 5 instead of 6 should one team win. Nonetheless, a further option to consider.

It might be best to wait for the in running market, when prices can fluctuate considerably. Liverpool need to win - nothing less will do, so despite no Gerard and a less than fully fit Torres, they will be on the offensive. Should the game remain 0-0 after 20 minutes, then the draw odds should shorten. Laying then will reduce liabilities, so in you go.

Liverpool should make the running, but will be open to the counter attack and could go further behind. This may not lengthen the draw odds, as Liverpool must attack, attack and attack to win the match and most of the bettors will be die hard scousers who will not fathom their team losing and being eliminated in a competition in which they have a compelling record. The turnaround of the 0-3 deficit in the final in Istanbul in 2005 is still a vivid memory and the faithful will not desert their team, in voice nor in betting support.

If Lyon do score, then as the game draws towards the end, it will be possible to have a bet on them to make a profit. Should Liverpool nab a late equalizer, then the bigger payout will still ensure a healthy return.

These are options, designed to ensure a profit, though obviously at the expense of "giving away"  some of the potential profit, should the game close level, as was the original contention. However, potential profits are not actual and it is secured funds in the account that ultimately matter. Good luck.

A very tasty 27/1 fourfold was landed last night when the Lyon v Liverpool game ended all square. Whether you satisfied yourself with your original bet and just waited for the result and pocketed a tidy profit, or hedged your bet to guarantee a profit, irrespective of the outcome of the game, then well done. As I said, I am interested in big price wins and you will not read here me recommending odds on shots, or even small odds against fancies.

My bets are thoughtfully established after a detailed analysis with the sole objective of finding value. That is to say, obtaining prices that are greater than the actual chances of success. In the long term, this produces profits and that's what we are interested in.

This does mean that there are not scores of bets on a daily basis, but when I suggest one, it is with confidence. To date we have won with the lay on Lloyd Daniels, the bet on Rachel Adedeji and the 27/1 football gamble. Our sole loss was the 1pt stake on Coeur de Lionne at 14/1, who gave us a run for our money, before finding Sheikh Mohammed's good thing simply that. We are in lots of profit and that's the way, eh, eh, we like it and intend to continue. I'm off to research our next "good thing", so until then, KWKW (keep well, keep winning)

I have too many reservations about this fivefold bet in the Europa League matches this evening, There are now so many variables with what totals 450 minutes of play. You know yourself that hitting a post instead of sneaking in, getting a dubious penalty for or against, or simply just not having the rub of the green over 90 minutes is tricky enough, without it involving 10 teams and effectively 7and a half hours of kick ball!

We secured excellent profits from our first foray into European football betting, so I was considering risking 1 pt on these five, which if correct, would deliver us, coincidentally, a further 27 points profit. However, even though it is only 1 pt, I do not like to give back well earned rewards if there is too big an element of speculation, so we have no bet tonight. Just for fun though here was what was under consideration.

Home wins for Anderlect & Fernebache both at 4/7, away win for Ajax at even money in Zagreb, a home win for Roma against Fulham at 4/6 and a draw at Goodison Park in the Everton Benfica clash, priced up at 12/5.

As I say, final analysis confirms this is too speculative a bet, so watching only and learning a bit more for next time. Until then, KWKW(keep well, keep winning)

I do hope that you had the discipline not to risk a pt on the considered fivefold last night, as I concluded that it was simply a little too uncertain. Nothing is certain in the world of gambling(hence the word), but it is trying to eliminate as many risks as possible and have the odds on our side, that this enterprise is all about.

Four of the considerations obliged, but Everton lost at home to Benfica, so we were right not to bet. This once more goes to illustrate the benefit of following teams in form. Benfica thumped five past Everton in Portugal last week and maintained their good form with this decisive away win. Normally at home, Everton are a formidable opponent, which was why they appealed as able to avoid defeat, but all in all, there were too many risks.

We are also in good form and I will be toiling over the form books to see what opportunities present themselves this weekend. Until then, KWKW.

It might seem from the odds of this football bet that I am being a bit reckless, but I think it will prove to be a sound investment. This weekend of soccer action in the top flight in England is spread over 3 days, with 6 clubs having played cruical games in European competition on either Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday evenings.

This makes it tough for teams whose players have spent hours in the air and who now have themselves convinced that they are tired. Whether this tiredness is actually in their legs or merely their heads is another matter, but these post European midweek matches, do throw up some unexpected results. I almost wished that Man City had played in Europe as the 10/1 for Burnley to win, albeit their first away Premier game, made me look long and hard.

However, I have 2 games on Saturday and a lunchtime kick off on Sunday, which will hopefully leave us in a strong hedge position for the clash of the top two teams at 16.00GMT Sunday.

Blackburn languish in the bottom 3 and entertain bottom club Portsmouth, who have been managing to pick up a few points after a horrendous start. Many pundits feel Portsmouth is now getting their just desserts and will continue to pick up points, but I expect them to leave empty handed from Ewood Park. Blackburn are 6/5 to win.

Spurs will expect to resume winning ways back at White Hart Lane after being outclassed by neighbours Arsenal last week, but Steve Bruce has a battling brigade at his disposal and I think they will manage a draw, priced at 16/5.

Hull retain the services of manager Phil Brown, but for how much longer will entirely depend upon notching a lot more victories. I don't expect them to so do at home to Stoke and at 12/5 I will be backing another draw.

If these three matches pan out as expected, then we will be in a super position to hedge our bets in the big game of the weekend - Chelsea (top) v Man Utd (2nd). Chelsea are formidable at Stamford Bridge, but Utd are formidable full stop. Despite a below par 3-3 draw midweek(battling back from 1-3), United possess riches in abundance and manager Sir Alex Ferguson hates to lose, especially against the "big" teams. Chelsea drew 2-2 in Madrid midweek and if their short hop back to London did have any ill effect, then maybe Utd can nick it. At 3/1 to do so, I make them too good not to select.

That's a 106/1 fourfold, with options of laying if the first three oblige before or during the Chelsea match. As we are in healthy profits, I suggest a 2pt bet. Until then, KWKW

Just had a look at the songs the latest group of wannabes will be torturing tonight and some of the choices look dodgy.

Olly Murs – Twist and Shout. Danyl Johnson – Purple Rain. Jamie Archer – Crying.

John and Edward – Ghostbusters. Lloyd Daniels - Stand by Me.
Stacey Soloman –Son of a Preacher Man . Lucie - This is Me. Joe McElderry – Circle Of Life.

Olly looks safe with Twist and Shout, as does Danyl with Purple Rain and Jamie with the emotional, Crying. So we can expect to see Simon have all 3 of his acts back next week.

Although I think both remaining girls and likeable Joe all have risky song choices, I think they will return. However, Luice is singing a little known song from Disney's Camp Rock and she will do it well, but it is always advisable to perform songs that the wider audience know well.

The remaining pair are in trouble. I expect both acts will pull out the stops visually to deflect from their vocal shortcomings and this could be the week either the twins or Lloyd bite the dust. Let's hope so. Back tomorrow with the betting opportunities.. Umtil then, KWKW.

Blackburn came from 0-1 at half time to win 3-1, but Sunderland failed to draw at White Hart Lane. By all accounts they should have won, let alone got the draw we wanted. They were 1 nil down at half time, having had by far the best of the play. In the second half they got a penalty and commentators felt the culprit, the Spurs goalkeeper, should have been sent off, but was merely cautioned. He then proceeded to save the spot kick and instead of being 1-1, Spurs went on with all 11 men on the pitch to score again and win 2-0.

Es la Vida! We will not be so undone or unfortunate in other times. I'm off to examine the markets for the X Factor elimination show tonight, so will hopefully have a bet for us to resume winning ways. Until then, KWKW.

Lloyd's fans seem to have deserted him if the markets are a good guide (and they usually are), as he is the favourite to be eliminated this week. He is priced generally at 8/11 to go and I cannot argue a case to oppose this. He performed like a novice last night (he is a novice actually) and seemed to be preoccupied with melding his 2 songs into one, rather than pinging his performance into brilliance. He started off very poorly on the classic Stand by Me, making it sound almost mediocre, then segued into Sean Kingston's Beautiful Girls and not doing that particlulary well either, before seguing back into Stand By Me and at least finishing with a bit of a flourish.

One nice touch was his attention to his mentor, Cheryl, and taking her hand during the song as he sang. It worked well, but will it be enough to save him? Probably not.

Lucie Jones sang an unknown song fairly well, but I still feel she could be in trouble. It was at best a modest performance and I am not sure she has a huge following. She got positve judges comments, which might make her supporters feel there is no need to make that call. I still have a feeling she could be in the bottom and 2 and will punt accordingly. A 1 pt bet at 5/1 is advised.

However, unless Lloyd's legion of teenage fans ring his number (no others will), then he is saying farewell this evening, but his price is not tempting. For a thorough anyalsis of this event and expert betting advice, try this site - it is incomparable. http://nuttysportsbetting.blogspot.com/

Until next time, KWKW.

Lloyd's fans found their phones and he avoided the dreaded sing off. However, surely the biggest story it the utter hypocracy of Simon Cowell. He did not want even to put the Twins through to Boot Camp. Told Louis he was ridiculous for having them in his live show team and has slated them every week as useless, horrors and an abomination to the world of song.

Yet, as he did last week, in ensuring the elimination of a very good singer, Rachel Adedeji, in preference to the cute but limited Lloyd, he dumped the vocally excellent Lucie Jones and kept the Twins in the competition! He said that Lucie could not win and had a "ceiling" (a point at which she could not go beyond). Surely he did not mean that theTwins could win and have no "ceiling"!?!

It just shows what a two faced Im-always-right low life he is. Yes, he has made a fortune from the pop world and has grafted hard. But he has been in the right place at the right time with key personnel with ideas and he has exploited them to best advantage. Others could do just as well and be more honest.

It is this "I'll let the audience decide" deception (I am convinced he knows the public vote at this stage), that will be his undoing. I am sure that many voters will be disgusted at his bare faced sense of omnipotence and his singers may well face a backlash, by being deserted and finding themselves in the bottom two (mind you, he may then simply change the rules!). Yes, all three are very good singers, but so were Rachel and Lucie and he cold bloodedly cut them loose at the expense of less able performers.

We won our 5/1bet, which means we are 3 from 3 on this competition. I now fear that the Cowell backlash may affect the voting, but we may be able to use that to our advantage. Interesting to see how it is reported in the press. I'll keep you posted. Until then, KWKW.

Of the seven (ok eight, as the Twins are still here) singers remaining in the X Factor competition, only three of these have thus far found themselves in the uncomfortable position of being in the bottom two following the public vote to keep them in the game.

They are the dreadful Twins,(John & Edward), Danyl and Lloyd. Let us see if we can work out what is likely to happen that will give us an edge when it comes to betting on the elimination come the weekend.

It is possible to argue that Stacey has a huge following and that she may even pick up on voters who previously supported Rachel and Lucie. I think she will be safe.

Olly is a class act, oozing confidence and charm and is the clear favourite to win. He is safe.

Joe is note perfect and has an innocuous quality about him, not exactly the likability factor, but something that should keep him safe.

The remaining four will field the bottom two. Jamie is the eldest in the show and has a wealth of experience. He delivers time after time, but remains one of the outsiders in the betting - why? Well, he probably has limited appeal to the young girls who make up the majority of voters (I think). He is a bit of a scruff bag with his eighties afro hair sytle. He is seen by the other judges (notably Louis Walsh), as Simon's weakest link and vulnerable to attack.

But as an old cynic, my instinct tells me that insiders who are privy to the voting know that he is not one who is receiving lots of votes and is scraping by. The market is generally a very good guide and hence his price to win is comparitively high. There may also just possibly be a bit of a backlash against Simon Cowell via his proteges, following Simon's actions which led to the elimination of two decent singers who may have proved more of a threat to his team than those who remained in the competition.

If this is so, then Jamie and Danyl are vulnerable. I think it is worth betting on Danyl to be in the bottom 2 at 9/2 with Boylesport, then if so, the price will contract and we will have a nice lay situation. I advise Danyl rather than Jamie as he has already been in the bottom two from the public and still do not think they have taken him to their hearts, despite his excellent vocal capabilities. I looked hard at the 16/1 for the Jamie/Danyl combination to be the bottom two, should the Cowell backlash really take effect, but in final analysis, think that is more unlikely.

The public have gone to the extreme of complaining to the ruling body which governs television broadcasts about Simon Cowell, which is pathetic, as there is no misdemeanour he is guilty of in their rules. The only way they can hurt him is via his ego and artisites and there is still a chance that will happen. I'll keep you posted. Until then, KWKW.

It is a tough one this week and I have to admit that my timideness has lost us a guaranteed profit position. As I said earlier, I looked long and hard at the 16/1 available for the Jamie/Danyl combination to be this week's bottom two acts. They now trade at 9/1, so we could have laid off there and made a tidy profit.

I advised backing Danyl at 9/2 to be bottom two and he is now 7/2, but am still worried by how secure Lloyd and Jamie are in the betting as the expected bottom two. For me, Lloyd had another weak vocal performance, which was not concealed by the fact that he had a plethora of scantily clad lovelies gyrating around him and to be honest, leaving him a little open mouthed! (Or was that just me?)

Stacey received loads of plaudits from the judges, but I did not recognise the song and I say this again - if an artisit chooses a lesser known song, then the general public don't relate to it, switch off a bit and a lot of potential votes are sacrificed. This made me seek out the Lloyd/Stacey bottom two combo price, which is a tempting 40/1.

The twins have won round quite a few neutrals, by their sheer determination to get on with it, despite the audience boos, the lascerating judges criticisms and Louis Walsh's repetitive headache syndrome mantra "they're entertaining!" . They remain 3rd favourites to be eliminated and if in the boittom two, then I think singing logic will prevail and they will go. However, it is now my view that they will avoid the bottom two this week. If so, who will be there and who will leave?

I think Lloyd will be bottom two and will be on his way. So let's add two more bets to our portfolio for this week. Back Lloyd at 7/5 to be eliminated with Befair and lay Jamie Archie at 2/1 with Skybet. Take the profit from the Danyl bet by now laying him at 7/2.

It is a tricky week as we now reduce the acts to the top six, but with the "wild card" twins still around, there should continue to be a bit of value to find. Once they go, the song choices will be critical, as well as faultless performances. That said, it is now worth having a monster 10 point punt on Olly Murs to succeed at a general 9/4. He is improving, his confidence is growing and he retains a sensible, likeable persona, which will see him go all the way. Good luck, until next time, KWKW.

The only thing I got right was that Lloyd and Jamie would be in the mix. I thought Jamie would be saved, but failed to consider the ridiculous attitude of Louis Walsh, who clearly elected to send Jamie home as a two fingered salute to Simon.

My apologies, we did our money, not once, but twice, so will need to find a couple of good things to get back on track. "I'm a celebrity, get me out of here", returned to our screens last night, with an unusally pleasant bunch of campers. I'll see if we can pick up a decent priced punt on this to add to our mix of TV reality bets. Until then, KWKW. 

How's about risking 1 point on a cheeky 71/1 football double on two away wins that nobody fancies?

Spurs are decent at home, but were lucky to beat Sunderland and are hot favourites to account for Wigan at White Hart Lane this afternoon. But Wigan are unpredictable and have taken a scalp or two this season, including league leader's Chelsea. At 7/1, they are interesting.

Next weekend Hull travel to Man City, who are not in good form. They have serious defensive problems and Hull are capable of knocking a few in the onion bag. Burnely scored three last time there and Hull might just put a couple away, whilst conceding fewer. At 8/1, I'm taking a punt on both to return me 72 points for my single point outlay. 

Yes, a bit of a longshot, but sometimes, they are worth the risk. Good luck.

I need put out of my misery! After examining the unpredictablitiy of Wigan, who only a few weeks ago defeated clear cut league leaders Chelsea, I nomintaed them for an away win against a good, but also in and out Spurs team. Spurs annihilated them by 9-1.

Please do not take any heed of anything I say now until the tide has well and truly turned. I am a tipping disaster area at present and should be avoided like the plague!

For a true pro in form, have a good read of http://nuttysportsbetting.blogspot.com/.

I'm off to lick some wounds - it might take quite a while.