With the current real estate disaster, also described as the subprime mortgage crisis, many first time home buyers are wondering if now might be a good time to buy. Patience here, is the key for firsttime home buyers to get a true bargain. Real estate prices have not yet fallen to their lowest point. There are still months and months ahead for falling real estate values.

Back in 2007, Moody's forecast that the subprime adjustable rate mortgages created during the last three months of 2006 would reach a maximum projected foreclosure rate of just under 20 percent during the fall of 2011. Yes, that's three years from now.

While the number of foreclosures has doubled since last year at this time, that rate will likely increase by another 100% 12 months from now. Interest rate resets for subprime borrowers do not even reach their maximum until Fall, 2008. Since most people who own a home can afford to meet their payments on their home loans that have the artificially low initial teaser rate, it is not until after the interest rate resets to a more realistic level that they can't meet their obligations.

Look for the wave of foreclosures to continue to build throughout this year and 2009. As homes are foreclosed upon, which can take at least six months, this process will continue to swell the inventory of properties available for sale. This will continue to push home prices down.

First time home buyers do not need to hurry and buy a home now in order to lock in today's "low" prices. The values available now will be viewed as high six to twelve months from now.

It also requires time for the public to realize that the real estate market has changed. Sellers still would like to sell their properties for the peak prices that were seen 2 years ago. It is simply human nature to want to believe that the "value" of one's property has not plunged. However, value is merely what a buyer will pay for it.

If no buyers are willing to pay the inflated prices of two years ago, then the price of two years ago is not what the home is valued at today. Sellers will still list their homes at inflated prices. It is only after months of sitting idle on the market without offers that serious sellers will lower their asking price to a more realistic level.

It takes time for property owners to come to grips with the fact that over-inflated real estate prices are a distant memory. There is still hope among homeowners that we've found the bottom and prices will rapidly go back up to where they were back in boom times.

However, boom values were created by artificially low interest rates which were prevalent with teaser offers, mortgages with 100% loan-to-value, very, very easy approval requirements, and the widespread availability of no-doc, no-income-verification loans. This allowed millions of first time home buyers to enter the market who would not have qualified any other way. This surge of buyers caused prices to rise. But that surge of buyers is now absent.

Just as the surge of first time home buyers entering the market caused a very large rise in price, the surge of foreclosed homes being dumped onto the market will cause a very large price decrease. The worst is yet to come. First time home buyers should sit tight, save up for their down payment, reduce their bills, and work on improving their credit scores. Proper planning now will allow the first time home buyer to obtain the deal of a lifetime in about 12 to 24 months.