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Fundamental Vs. Technical Analysis

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By MegaTrade101


Setting Record Prices

The continued downward momentum of the USD/JPY is a ripple effect of the US jobless rate report putting more pressure to the USDX. Closing of the week ending November 06 is at 89.85
The AUD/USD have continued its obvious trend since the RBA raised its key rates and is looking to reach the 4.00% even earlier than expected.
The AUD/USD have continued its obvious trend since the RBA raised its key rates and is looking to reach the 4.00% even earlier than expected.
Gold has set it New high at the USD 1,100.00 price registered before the trading session ending of November 06
Gold has set it New high at the USD 1,100.00 price registered before the trading session ending of November 06

Market Bias on the USD

For the past couple of weeks, the market reports on a fundamental stand point had been mixed from the good numbers of the GDP, a negative report on Consumer Confidence, rate increase from the Reserve Bank of Australia and now the US Jobless rate report at the 10.2% levels compared to the 1983 recession figures didn't help the US Dollar to recover.

Although, the overall Major Trend for the US Dollar is still quite negative; its overwhelming sentiments can be seen in the market from the price behavioral patterns its had shown from the temporary correction gaining back to the previous resistance levels for the USDX at 76.90 and never went beyond its high. No substantial volumes were spotted except the increase and liquidation of certain short positions when it triggered stop loss selling from a slight US Dollar recovery. And the USDX is now back at the 75.85 closing price last Friday.

Weighing the market on a Fundamental as against a Technical perspective can be quite difficult to obtain specially if and when trading positions are made. the only remaining strategy currentl;y applicable is to wait for price parameters to reach their respective resistance and support levels that would coincide with the Fibonacci levels. The relative relationship of the RSi, Stochastic and the MACD may well be understated in its technical analysis whereby certain prices will make its adjustments and corrections to make room for the prices to move further. Thus, giving some false signals as to the directional movement of the trend in a near term outlook for swing traders. Making more harder for traders to pin-point entry and exit strategies as the market shows some reversal patterns or candlestick bar trend corrections.

This article is also a supplemental report in addition to our previous hub on : ' FX Rates Analytics and the Much Awaited Recovery on the US Dollar '. As prices do affect the markets performance read in part not only in a technical perspective but also knowing the psychology behind such movements.


Chart Comparison

The USDX going back to the 75.85 levels may soon attempt its support at the 74.90 by the opening in the Asian session as spill over sentiments take effect by next week.
The USDX going back to the 75.85 levels may soon attempt its support at the 74.90 by the opening in the Asian session as spill over sentiments take effect by next week.
The Strength of the GBP/USD is more of the weakness of the US dollar as the UK economy is still lagging behind in actual figures even if they have been out of the recession period.
The Strength of the GBP/USD is more of the weakness of the US dollar as the UK economy is still lagging behind in actual figures even if they have been out of the recession period.
The USD/CHF has maintained it price movements with the USDX more than that of the USD/JPY which at times may seem to counter act the Yen's strength.
The USD/CHF has maintained it price movements with the USDX more than that of the USD/JPY which at times may seem to counter act the Yen's strength.

Market Snap-shot

 As the US dollar Index reacted to the recent report; tested the 75.64 low and may try to attempt the 74.90 support price. However, such attempt may be limited due to the closing of the week's trading and could only spill over to next coming week's trading session in Asia.

This report carries more weight than the previous once but the movement may have already been anticipated by the traders as some have expected the negative outcome earlier during the week prompting the dollar's lower direction since the start of the month.

The Labor Department's report shows that the jobless rate rose to 10.2 percent, which was the highest since April of 1983,from 9.8 percent in September. The business sectors total loss or a net loss of 190,000 jobs in October, less than the downward revision of 219,000 lost in September. But this was more than what the  economists have expected.

The actual rise in the jobless rate can only reflect a sharp increase in the overall unemployed American workers, which rose to 15.7 million from 15.1 million. The net loss of jobs occurred across most industries, from manufacturing and construction to retail and financial. This is based on a separate survey of businesses. The unemployment rate could climb as high as 10.5 percent next year because employers remain reluctant to hire even as there may be signs of a recovery, but not on revenue growth on their businesses and bottom line.

Moreover, the GBP/USD direction reacted swiftly after the report which was working on the price level of 1.6516 corrective low and is currently back up to 1.6575 as of this writing. It just shows the continued strength of the Pound and the Euro on a vulnerable US Dollar still bias on the negative front as traders are reluctant to build fresh positions on the US dollar only because it is oversold levels.

Meanwhile, the USD/JPY remained lower as the Yen gained strength in value versus the US Dollar. Currently priced at 90.07 from a low of 89.77; although the previous low of 87.10 again maybe attempted in the coming week of the Asian session.

The USD/CHF was still at the 1.0145-50 while it tries to approach the 1.0126 session low in the European session. The Aussie has continued it upward momentum at .9193 which may now surpass the .9329 the week of Oct. 18 2009 if and when the volumes and carry over trades increase as the RBA continues to raise its interest rates till the end of the year to four (4.00%). The Kiwi has followed suit in this relationship but expect some cross hedge between the AUD/NZD and JPY combination. This has been the play for most arbitrary hedgers on the institutional side where they find favorable positions on the trades.

Last but not the least, Gold had made its historical high at the USD 1,100.06 /troy oz. with the strength and capital cash infusion of investors to hedge against the US Dollar which has some how lost its appeal and would rather have the Gold commodity as an alternative form of investment.

Basis of Analysis

The basis of having a balance of both the fundamental reports which may be the gauge of the economic conditions would outweigh and technical outlook on the charts. Although, the technicals as always been proven to be the reference points in pricing the exchange rates as most contributory banks and financial institutions uses these indicative prices to set their goals on what the actual market sentiments would be willing to take and spread the risk against adverse price fluctuations due to these economic numbers.

In Essence, these recent reports will always backup the technical price movements in the market and not the other way around. What moves these prices and price swings are traders and investors who sees the market the way others may see them or not. It is still a decision of the mind and not by a trading system alone.


Reference:

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Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine Kiplinger's Personal Finance magazine
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ForexCashBack profile image

ForexCashBack  says:
2 weeks ago

According to the liquidity Trader/Consumer Index, it appears that traders are short positioning themselves on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD while going long on USD/CHF.

Index can be found on this page:

http://fxibonline.com/default.aspx

I personally expect some risk aversion flows into the dollar at the begining of this trading week.

MegaTrade101  says:
2 weeks ago

We do appreciate your input on this, although a single source from Liquidty /Trader could be compared with the Traders commitment on Volume, Open Interest provided by the CME and a Market Sentiment Index plus long /short positions provided by one of the better broker-dealers to have a better angle on the analysis.

In Forex Trading anything can happen !Thanks for your comments. Good Luck!

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