Golden State Warriors Offseason Preview: Pre-Draft Edition
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Are you a die-hard Warriors fan? Do you feel like none of the mock drafts or "expert opinions" know as much about your team as you do? Well, then you've come to the right place. As a life-long fan of the Warriors, I am here to preview what's in store for the team by the Bay. What should they do about their free agents? Who should they take in the draft? You'll find all your answers here.
The Draft
We'll start with the draft, since that's what comes first. Now, most experts will try to tell you that the Warriors need help up front. This may be true, but it is not as pressing of a need as most will make it out to be. This is because they forget a couple things that us true fans know:
- 1) Brandan Wright
The guy goes in the top 10, gets minimal playing time his first year, and all of a sudden he's a nobody. I mean, even Darko got more time to prove himself than this guy. Trust me, he is going to be good. Monta promised he'd be the next Chris Bosh, and I believe absolutely anything that comes form Monta.
Side note- check out Monta's videos at AndOne's site. "I run a 4.1 in the 40 for real... on a bad knee." Classic.
Now let's forget for a moment that it's extremely difficult to ride the bench for most of the time and then be expected to perform on a moment's notice, knowing fully well that if you don't play well, you'll likely be benched for the rest of the game and probably for a couple games after. When Wright got in the game, he produced. He looked good, and he will only get better. As a North Carolina product, he could follow in the footsteps of Sean May... I mean Brendan Haywood... no wait- Vince Carter... Joe Forte? Honestly, I'm glad he only spent one year there. He still has a chance.
Word is, the Warriors love him, and Nellie has already promised more playing time. The best explanation I can find for last year is that Nellie didn't want him to get used to playing at his current weight, developing bad habits and what not. They want him to gain weight and then come ready to play. Honestly, I think this is our starting power forward next year. Thus, his presence diminishes the need to take a frontcourt player who is expected to become a starter. Between him and Biedrins (more on him later), we should be pretty set for a while.
- 2) Kosta Perovic
Here's another guy who could produce. He didn't get a lot of PT (ala Wright), but he looked like he could play when he got in. Even better, he's a savvy European who doesn't flop like an Italian soccer player when a guy half his size drives at him (at least from what I've seen). Only the coaches really know what he can do, but he could end up being a decent backup to Biedrins. Again, knowing this makes it seem even more odd that everyone expects the Warriors to take a power forward or center.
- 3) The point guard situation
Now, I will leave my opinions on Baron Davis for another article. I have more than enough to work with. Suffice it to say, I don't know that he'll be a Warrior for much longer if he doesn't change his demands. Regardless, the Warriors need help at the point. Ellis was supposed to play backup point guard and eventually take over, but he's just too good at shooting guard. So, the Warriors signed Hudson, who then retired after getting injured. The rest of the year, they were forced to play C. J. Watson. Now, C. J. isn't bad for a d-leaguer, but the team was completely different with him in place of Baron. The team needs another guard.
- 4) Versatility
As previously mentioned, Ellis is seen by Nellie as the future point guard. This might not be a bad idea, but then who plays shooting guard? Jackson could, but then we have a huge hole at small forward. Belinelli could, but is he ready? Bottom line is this: the Warriors could go in a lot of different directions, and this is because they have many players that can play many positions. Ellis, Jackson, and Biedrins can all start at multiple positions, and if Barnes stays, he can play them all. The Warriors are to versatile players what Bruce Bowen is to cheap shots: they just keep on producing them.
- 5) Belinelli
The expectations were high. Nellie said he could be star. And then... he sat. Having said that, he looked like a gamer when he did play and he's already a fan favorite. If it came down to it, he could play the 2 and allow Monta to move over to the point. He's the great X factor. We'll see how it goes.
Outlook:
The Warriors could look for help up front, but they don't necessarily need it. With Wright, Harrington, Biedrins, and Perovic, they could be ok without anyone else. The more pressing need seems to be at guard, especially if Baron opts out.
Having said all of that, here's who they should target:
Westbrook/Augustin: if either of these guys are on the board, consider them gone. However, if they aren't, it'd be hard to justify taking a point guard. The next best would be Chalmers, but he might be a reach. Personally, I'd love to see Augustin in a Warriors uniform.
Speights: He could add some toughness and size. He'd give the W's a great rebounder (which they sorely need) and some offense as well. He could back up the 4 and 5 and maybe eventually develop into a starter.
Love: This might be the best pick they could get. He fits them perfectly and is a California guy. He'll almost certainly be gone, but they could trade up. I mean, he's related to a Beach Boy. How do you pas that up???
Alexander: Another guy who will be gone. However, he's an athletic freak, the ideal forward for Nellie's system. I've been praying for weeks that he'd slip in the draft so Mullin could swipe him up.
Without any of these guys, I'm tempted to say the Warriors should either trade up or down. Another possibility (that no one is talking about) is trading the pick to get someone like T. J. Ford. I really liked what I saw from him, and it seems like he's being given away. Ford and #17 for Boris Diaw? The same Boris Diaw I saw in the playoffs last year? Really? We can offer more than that. How about we give the Raptors our first rounder for Ford, kick them in the balls, and spit on them. We'd be doing them a favor if it kept them from trading Ford and their pick for Boris Diaw (all you fantasy owners out there, you know what I'm talking about).
Free Agency
The Warriors have, what, 2 players under contract? Kidding, but not far off. Biedrins and Ellis are restricted FAs, and Kelenna, Barnes, and Pietrus are unrestricted. Oh, and Baron can opt out. Basically, we have Belinelli, Wright, Harrington, and Jackson under contract for next year. There's a lot that could happen. Here's what should happen...
- 1) Ellis stays
No question about it. If Ellis demands that Mullin publicly get on his knees and beg for him to stay, it should still happen. I openly questioned Monta's ability to play in the big games, but after seeing how he finished the season, I am convinced that he is a star in the making, The Warriors should give him whatever he wants... and then some.
- 2) Biedrins stays... but not for as much as Ellis
Everyone's looking for a young big man, but I'm not sure Andris is worth the max. With Baron wanting more money and Ellis getting the max, can we afford the give it to Biedrins too? Mullin says he will match any offer, but if Philly gives him $70 mil over 5 years, could the Warriors really match that? I'd give him 5 years and $50 mil. If he doesn't want that, then he can take the one year tender and go the way of Pietrus, and we all saw what happened there.
- 3) Pietrus out, Kelenna and Barnes in
Pietrus is fun to watch, but he whined more about his contract than Tim Duncan on a charging call... or any call... ever. He has to be gone. However, Kelenna is a keeper and will come cheap. Barnes is unwanted by anyone else, so they should be able to get him for much less than they would've last summer. I am more confident about this than about Ellis and Biedrins staying.
Outlook:
The Warriors need to hold on to their young guys. At the same time, they need to be reasonable. If someone offers the max to Biedrins, they have to consider their options. It was smart of Mullin to publicly say that all offers for Ellis or Biedrins would be matched. When Jerry West did that with Stromile Swift, he got absolutely no interest from other teams (great strategy, but for Slow-mile Swift? And this guy is a genius?). Hopefully, the same happens with these guys (you know, except for the whole turning-into-useless-overpaid -players part).
How the rest of free agency goes depends on the draft. If they can't get a guard through the draft, they need one through free agency. Hudson was a good signing last year. They need another one like that this time around too.
The Future
So here's what the rotation should look like next year:
Starters: Baron, Ellis, Jackson (aka Captain Jack), Wright, Biedrins
Sixth Man: Harrington
Rotation players: Belinelli, Barnes, whoever they draft
Bench warmers: Perovic, Croshere, C. J. Watson, Azubuike
It remains to be seen who stays and goes, but Perovic and Azubuike seem to have the best chance of breaking into the rotation. Barnes could be anything from a starter to a bench warmer to a football player. I really don't know what to make of him. Having said that, the future looks pretty bright. With the Suns, Spurs, and Mavs all getting older, the Warriors could be a top 4 seed quickly. However, if Baron opts out, they could be rebuilding all over again. This offseason could prove to be the most important of Mullin's tenure. Hopefully, they get it right. Here's to hoping... Cheers!
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gjcody says:
2 years ago
Wow ...it was fun to read this. I remember the days when I was a fan of basketball. I came from a class C school ....yes class C ...and we played class B schools. I don't think there are any class B left and I know there are no class C ... But we won the WPIAL in PA three years and we rocked. We had a professional player come from our school "Donnie Hennon" You are probably too young to know him. We also produced two pro baseball players. Our school had graduating classes of 30 ...when school was really fun!
I just love ...I mean love basketball. I love the speed of it. Of course I was a cheerleader and did not miss a game from 7th grade up.
Well enough of the past ...good hub and I hope you are going to follow up on this information. I will be interested in what happens ...good job!
My best to you!