Golden Triangle versus Golden Bridge in Indonesian Presidential Race

GOLDEN BRIDGE VERSUS GOLDEN TRIANGLE

IN INDONESIAN PRESIDENTIAL RACE

The race for Presidential office is getting more and more intense in Indonesian politics these days. The presidential election is scheduled on July, 2009. With the current law on election only political parties cadres may run for the presidential office. Independent candidate are not allowed to take part in the presidential race. Furthermore, only parties who reach a minimum of 20% votes in the legislature election may choose their candidate. Consequently no more than four candidates will compete. Who are the most prospective candidates ?

The question is now inside the mind of many Indonesian politicians, journalists, expert, and voters as well. The press mentioned big names like the incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudoyono, the former President Megawati, Vice President Jusuf Kalla, former armed forces commander general (ret) Wiranto, former commander of the special forces Lieutenant general (ret) Prabowo Subianto, and the king of Yogyakarta Sultan Hamengkubuwono (HB) X. Latest polls by prominent Indonesian research institutions indicates that President SBY is always on top. Megawati is in the second rank. Ironically Jusuf Kalla who leads a big party – Golkar party- is always in the low rank, much lower than Sultan HB X who is also a member of Golkar leadership.

The superior popularity of SBY and his Demokrat party makes him over confident. So far he has not decided his running mate for the coming election. One of Demokrat party leader, Mubarok told the press in a controversial statement that if Golkar party reaches only a small amount of vote in the legislature election, then his party may be will not choose Jusuf Kalla as SBY’s running mate. This statement triggered anger among Golkar leadership. Besides anger the statement spurred calculation among Golkar party. Perhaps they are worried about Demokrat will leave them. Consequently Golkar party try to find other possibilities.

In early March, 2009, Jusuf Kalla met Megawati in a friendly meeting in Jakarta. The meeting went smoothly but so far there is no real commintment to create a stable coalition. It is not clear either who will become president and who is vice president. Most probably they will wait and see for the result of the legislature candidate. Jusuf kalla also met Tifatul Sembiring, the chairman of Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Justice and Welfare party). PDIP chairwoman Megawati has met Prabowo Subianto. Meanwhile Abdurrahman Wahid aka Gus Dur has met Prabowo Subianto and introduced him to muslim community in madrassas in east Java, the traditional supporters of Gus Dur. Then Megawati talked to the chairman of Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (United Development Party), Suryadarma Ali. Today they call their potential coalition of PDIP-PPP-Golkar as the Golden Triangle. Meanwhile Demokrat talked to Partai Amanat Nasional (National Mandate Party) and Partai Bulan Bintang (Crescent Star party) and call their coalition as The Golden Bridge.

Despite the fact that these coalition have great potentials, they also have great obstacles. Take PDIP and Golkar for example. So far it is not clear who will be the president and the vice president. It is not easy to find a compromise to this issue. For Jusuf Kalla, being a vice president is easier achieved as SBY’ running mate rather than Megawati’s. Today it is clear that he and Golkar want the top job. But since Megawati also wants it, then they will come to a deadlock. The same thing happens with other candidates. No one wants the position of vice president. So the coalition remain potential. There are many possibilities open to them.

Perhaps the results of the coming election will make it easier for them to negotiate. Parties who get higher votes will have a stronger leverage. But for Megawati presidency is a fixed price. She won’t accept any offer to become a vice president. If Golkar get higher votes, then they will never accept any offer for second position. But if Golkar lose, then Jusuf Kalla will be finished. Other members of the Golkar leadership will overthrow him from top position in the party.

As for Demokrat party, their high achievement in the April election will make them easy to find coalition partner. PKS, PAN, PBB are ready to be one. Hidayat Nurwahid from PKS who is the chairman of MPR (people’s consultative assembly), will be a perfect running mate to get votes from muslim communities.

In short, the coalition among parties is still volatile. Big parties are looking for the best possible alternatives. One thing is certain – Megawati does not like SBY. Her emotions is a serious barrier for her to be SBY’s running mate. So far prospective coalition are the above mentioned groups- the Golden Triangle and the Golden Bridge.