Telling the future with Google Trends, Yahoo Buzz, and Alexa

Some of the coolest tools on the internet are provided for free. Tools available such as Google trends (Google Zeitgeist), Yahoo Buzz, and Alexa Movers and Shakers can tell you much more than whats being searched on the internet. They can actually predict the future, you will find that CNBC uses Google Zeitgeist to predict individual stock moves and recently MSNBC had a special on utilizing search trends on Yahoo Buzz to predict election results with incredible success. These new tools give you incredible insight in to "what's on the minds" of millions of people, across the United States and around the world.

We will offer suggestions throughout this lens to not only find powerful topics to use in marketing on Squidoo Lenses, but to actually help you to predict the future with Google Trends, Yahoo Buzz, and Alexa's Movers and Shakers (which is incredible at predicting the next hot website, as its users tend to be rather savy with technology).

Google Trends Official Blog

The flow of information at the Googleplex

Baby steps to a new job

AdWords and local markets

Front row for First in the Nation

This year of Google blogging

About Google Trends

With Google Trends, you can compare the world's interest in your favorite topics. Enter up to five topics and see how often they've been searched on Google over time. Google Trends also shows how frequently your topics have appeared in Google News stories, and in which geographic regions people have searched for them most.

About Hot Trends

With Hot Trends, you can see a snapshot of what's on the public's collective mind by viewing the fastest-rising searches for different points of time. You can see a list of today's top 100 fastest-rising search queries in the U.S. You can also select a recent date in history to see what the top rising searches were and what the search activity looked like over the course of that day. We update Hot Trends hourly.

1. How does Google Trends work?

2. How does Hot Trends work?

3. How many terms can I compare? And what other functionality is available?

4. How can I change the time frame, region, or sub-region (state or province) of the results?

5. How do the Cities, Regions, and Languages work?

6. How does counting and ranking of the Top Cities, Regions, and Languages work and what does 'normalized' mean?

7. This tool makes search information public. What about my personal search data?

8. How accurate and up-to-date is the information provided by Google Trends?

9. When is it okay to use the information I find on Google Trends?

10. When will this tool be available for my country or language?

11. I've got feedback. Where should I send it?

1. How does Google Trends work?

Google Trends analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. We then show you a graph with the results -- our search-volume graph -- plotted on a linear scale.

Located just beneath our search-volume graph is our news-reference-volume graph. This graph shows you the number of times your topic appeared in Google News stories. When Google Trends detects a spike in the volume of news stories for a particular term, it labels the graph and displays the headline of an automatically selected Google News story written near the time of that spike. Currently, only English-language headlines are displayed, but we hope to support non-English headlines in the future.

Below the search and news volume graphs, Google Trends displays the top cities, regions, and languages in which people searched for the first term you entered.

2. How does Hot Trends work?

Hot Trends reflects what people are searching for on Google today. Rather than showing the most popular searches overall, which would always be generic terms like "weather," Hot Trends highlights searches that have sudden surges in popularity. Our algorithm analyzes millions of web searches performed on Google and displays those searches that deviate the most from their historic traffic pattern. The algorithm also filters out spam and removes inappropriate material.

For each search, Hot Trends shows related searches, a search-volume graph, and the top cities. We also display news, blog, and web results to help give context about why a search may be appearing on the Hot Trends list today. Hot Trends is updated hourly. You can also choose a date in the past to see what the top Hot Trends for that date were.

3. How many terms can I compare? And what other functionality is available?

You can compare up to five terms by separating each with a comma. To compare trend info for "mittens" and "bathing suits," for example, simply enter mittens, bathing suits and click "Search Trends."

To see how many searches contained either of two terms, just separate those terms with a vertical bar: "|". For example, to determine how many searches contained the terms "mittens" or "gloves," just enter mittens | gloves.

To compare multi-word terms, use parentheses. To see how many searches were done for either "winter mittens" or "gloves," for instance, just enter (winter mittens) | gloves (if you don't use parentheses, your query will be interpreted to mean all searches for "winter mittens" or "winter gloves").

You can also exclude terms from your search by using the minus sign. To see how many searches contained the term "maps" butnot "google," for instance, just enter maps-google.

To restrict your results to only those searches that contain your terms in the specific order you've entered them, you can put your terms in quotation marks. (By default, Google Trends will show you all searches that contain the terms you entered in any order.)

Note: when you use any of these advanced features -- quotation marks, minus signs, or vertical bars -- Google Trends will only display the search-volume graph. The news portion of the product doesn't support advanced functionality at this time.

4. How can I change the time frame, region, or sub-region (state or province) of the results?

You can use the drop-down boxes under the search volume graph of the Google Trends results page to restrict your results to a particular time frame or region. The restrictions will affect both the search-volume and news-reference-volume graphs, and the city, region, and language data that appear below the graphs, though news-reference volume may not be available on a per region basis.

When you restrict your results to a specific year or multi-year period, each point on the graph will represent a week's worth of searches. When you restrict the results to a specific month, each point on the graph will represent one day of searches. You can now also select a time frame of the last 30 days or 12 months. To view the results for a particular sub-region, just use the drop-down boxes or click on the link for a particular country or sub-region on the Google Trends results page.

5. How do the Cities, Regions, Sub-regions and Languages work?

Google Trends uses IP address information from our server logs to make a best guess about where queries originated. Language information is determined by the language version of the Google site on which the search was originally entered.

6. How does counting and ranking of the Top Cities, Regions and Languages work, and what does 'normalized' mean?

For counting and ranking cities, Google Trends first looks at a sample of all Google searches to determine the cities from which we received the most searches for your first term. Then, for those top cities, Google Trends calculates the ratio of searches for your term coming from each city divided by total Google searches coming from the same city. The city ranking you see on the page and the bar charts alongside each city name both represent this ratio. When cities' ratios are fairly close together, the corresponding bar graphs will be roughly the same length, and the exact ranking between these cities is less meaningful.

Essentially, all results from Google Trends are normalized. This means we've divided the sets of data by a common variable to cancel out the variable's effect on the data and allow the underlying characteristics of the data sets to be compared. If we didn't normalize the results, and instead displayed the absolute rankings of cities, they wouldn't be all that interesting. For example, New York city would be the top city for many results because there are lots of searches from there.

Keep in mind that instead of measuring overall interest in a topic, Google Trends shows users' propensity to search for that topic on Google on a relative basis. For example, just because a particular region isn't on the Top Regions list for the term "haircut" doesn't necessarily mean that people there have decided to stage a mass rebellion against society's conventions. It could be that people in that region might not use Google to find a barber, use a different term when doing their searches, or simply search for so many other topics unrelated to haircuts that searches for "haircut" make up a very small portion of the search volume from that region when compared to other regions.

7. This tool makes search information public. What about my personal search data?

You can rest assured your personal search data remains safe and private. Our graphs are based on aggregated data from millions of searches done on Google over time. And the results Google Trends displays are produced entirely by an automated formula. As an additional measure, Google Trends only returns results for terms that receive a significant amount of search traffic.

We understand and respect your concerns about your privacy, and we encourage you to learn more by reading our privacy policy.

8. How accurate and up-to-date is the information provided by Google Trends?

Google Trends is a Google Labs product, which means it's still in its early stages of development. The data Google Trends produces may contain inaccuracies for a number of reasons, including data-sampling issues and a variety of approximations that Trends makes use of. We hope you find this service interesting and entertaining, but you probably don't want to write your Ph.D. dissertation based on this information. We're now updating the information provided by Google Trends daily; Hot Trends is updated hourly.

9. When is it okay to use the information I find on Google Trends?

You're free to use any of the information you find on Google Trends, but, before you do, please check out our Terms of Use. If you choose to use the information, please make sure to appropriately attribute it to Google.

10. When will this tool be available for my country or language?

Currently, Google Trends is only available in English and Chinese. Hot Trends is only available in English. We hope to roll out Google Trends in other regions and languages in the future.

Google , Yahoo, Alexa YouTube

Boycott Chapter 27

Whats Yahoo! BUZZ?

what's the buzz?

A subject's buzz score is the percentage of Yahoo! users searching for that subject on a given day, multiplied by a constant to make the number easier to read. Weekly leaders are the subjects with the greatest average buzz score for a given week.

FAQ's

frequently asked questions

Add to My Yahoo! View RSS Feed Add an Alert

* Where do you get the data for the Buzz Index?

* What is a buzz mover?

* What is a buzz leader?

* What do the numbers mean?

* Is anything filtered out?

* How often is the site updated?

* What does "Days on Chart" mean?

* What do the arrows on Buzz Leaders mean?

* What does the "Move" column on Buzz Leaders mean?

* What does "Prev. Rank" mean?

* What does "Breakout!" mean?

Where do you get the data for the Buzz Index?

The data is collected from Yahoo! search log files. The Yahoo! Buzz Index counts the total number of people searching for specific subjects. Individual users and their searches remain completely anonymous.

What is a buzz mover?

Buzz movers are the subjects with the greatest percentage increase in buzz score from one day to the next.

Significant increases in buzz score do not necessarily indicate huge overall interest in a subject. Greatest overall buzz is reflected by the list of buzz leaders.

For example, a subject that increases its buzz score from 4.0 to 12.0 would have a one-day buzz move of 200%, which might qualify it for inclusion on the list of buzz movers. However, that same subject, with a buzz of 12.0, might not make that day's list of buzz leaders.

What is a buzz leader?

Buzz leaders are the subjects with the greatest buzz score on a given day. These subjects are the most searched subjects on Yahoo! for that day.

What do the numbers mean?

A subject's buzz score is the percentage of users searching for that subject on a given day, multiplied by a constant to make the number easier to read.

More precisely, each point is equal to 0.001% of users searching on Yahoo! on a given day. For example, a buzz score of 500 for "Pokemon" translates to 0.5% of all users searching on Yahoo!

For buzz movers, the number displayed is the percentage increase in the subject's buzz score from the previous day.

Is anything filtered out?

Company names (such as Yahoo!), utilities and formats (email, MP3), and general terms (movies, downloads, football) are filtered out by the editors of the Yahoo! Buzz Index. The editors' goal is to list subjects that are interesting to the broadest possible audience. To this end, terms related to adults-only content are also excluded.

In some cases, the editors may also exclude terms that they believe have been elevated by similarity to unrelated popular terms. For example, the movie The Rock might be excluded if the buzz was determined to be solely generated by interest in the WWF star, The Rock.

How often is the site updated?

The Yahoo! Buzz Index is published Tuesday through Saturday. All the rankings on the Yahoo! Buzz Index -- both movers and leaders -- are updated each weekday and reflect the traffic from two days earlier. For example, Wednesday's Buzz Index reflects Monday's searches and clicks. (Twenty-four hours are required to process data and verify results.)

What does "Days on Chart" mean?

"Days on Chart" refers to the number of days a term has been one of the top 50 terms in a Buzz Leader category (overall, movies, television, music, sports). Note that we use the top 50 terms to track longevity, rather than just the top 20 that are displayed on the site. Days are calculated from January 1, 2001.

What do the arrows on Buzz Leaders mean?

The arrows reflect changes in rank for buzz terms. Green arrows indicate a move up in the rankings, while red arrows indicate a move down. The arrows don't reflect the direction or amount of change in a term's overall buzz score.

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What does the "Move" column on Buzz Leaders mean?

The move number reflects the change in a term's buzz score. Positive move numbers are green and negative move numbers are red. While these numbers can sometimes indicate a trend in the popularity of a buzz term, they are also affected by the overall traffic patterns of users on a particular day. (For example, searches on Sunday differ greatly in character and variety from those made on Mondays.)

What does "Prev. Rank" mean?

"Prev. Rank" shows where a current buzz term was ranked in the previous day's buzz index. The number may be anywhere from 1 to 50, or, if a term is new to the buzz, it will be indicated with a dash.

What does "Breakout!" mean?

When a term goes from very few searches to a large number of searches, we refer to it as a Breakout!. Most movers have been searched for previously, which means the increase in searches on the term can be expressed in a percentage. Breakout! terms have a huge percentage increase because of the small number of searches from the previous day. Breakout! terms head straight to the top of the list of movers.

The Tech Savy...Alexa Movers and Shakers

Looking for the next super hot website or technology , long before the masses begin searching for it on Google or Yahoo?

ALEXA has the answers. Generally the folks who download the Alexa toolbar are well ahead of the technology curve. Offering great insight on the future of Tech and Internet website popularity.

About the Alexa Traffic Rankings

A listing of all sites on the Web, sorted by traffic...

Alexa computes traffic rankings by analyzing the Web usage of millions of Alexa Toolbar users. The information is sorted, sifted, anonymized, counted, and computed, until, finally, we get the traffic rankings shown in the Alexa service. The process is relatively complex, but if you have a need to know, please read on.

What is Traffic Rank?

The traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from millions of Alexa Toolbar users and is a combined measure of page views and users (reach). As a first step, Alexa computes the reach and number of page views for all sites on the Web on a daily basis. The main Alexa traffic rank is based on the geometric mean of these two quantities averaged over time (so that the rank of a site reflects both the number of users who visit that site as well as the number of pages on the site viewed by those users). The three-month change is determined by comparing the site's current rank with its rank from three months ago. For example, on July 1, the three-month change would show the difference between the rank based on traffic during the first quarter of the year and the rank based on traffic during the second quarter.

What are sites and Web hosts?

Traffic is computed for sites, which are typically defined at the domain level. For example, the Web hosts www.msn.com, carpoint.msn.com and slate.msn.com are all treated as part of the same site, because they all reside on the same domain, msn.com. An exception is blogs or personal home pages, which are treated separately if they can be automatically identified as such from the URLs in question. Also, sites which are found to be serving the "same" content are generally counted together as the same site.

What is Reach?

Reach measures the number of users. Reach is typically expressed as the percentage of all Internet users who visit a given site. So, for example, if a site like yahoo.com has a reach of 28%, this means that of all global Internet users measured by Alexa, 28% of them visit yahoo.com. Alexa's one-week and three-month average reach are measures of daily reach, averaged over the specified time period. The three-month change is determined by comparing a site's current reach with its values from three months ago.

What are Page Views?

Page views measure the number of pages viewed by Alexa Toolbar users. Multiple page views of the same page made by the same user on the same day are counted only once. The page views per user numbers are the average numbers of unique pages viewed per user per day by the users visiting the site. The three-month change is determined by comparing a site's current page view numbers with those from three month ago.

How Are Traffic Trend Graphs Calculated?

The Trend graph shows you a three-day moving average of the site's daily traffic rank, charted over time. The daily traffic rank reflects the traffic to the site based on data for a single day. In contrast, the main traffic rank shown in the Alexa Toolbar and elsewhere in the service is calculated from three months of aggregate traffic data.

Daily traffic rankings will sometimes benefit sites with sporadically high traffic, while the three-month traffic ranking benefits sites with consistent traffic over time. Since we feel that consistent traffic is a better indication of a site's value, we've chosen to use the three-month traffic rank to represent the site's overall popularity. We use the daily traffic rank in the Trend graphs because it allows you to see short-term fluctuations in traffic much more clearly.

It is possible for a site's three-month traffic rank to be higher than any single daily rank shown in the Trend graph. On any given day there may be many sites that temporarily shoot up in the rankings. But if a site has consistent traffic performance, it may end up with the best ranking when the traffic data are aggregated into the three-month average. A good analogy is a four-day golf tournament: if a different player comes in first at each match, but you come in second at all four matches, you can end up winning the tournament.

How are Movers & Shakers Calculated?

The movers and shakers list is based on changes in average reach (numbers of users). For each site on the net, we compute the average weekly reach and compare it with the average reach during previous weeks. The more significant the change, the higher the site will be on the list. The percent change shown on the Movers & Shakers list is based on the change in reach. It is important to note that the traffic rankings shown on the Movers & Shakers page are weekly traffic rankings; they are not the same as the three-month average traffic rankings shown in the other Alexa services and are not the same as the reach numbers used to generate the list.

Some Important Disclaimers

The traffic data are based on the set of toolbars that use Alexa data, which may not be a representative sample of the global Internet population. Known biases include (but are likely not limited to) the following:

* Our users are disproportionately likely to visit sites that are featured on alexa.com such as amazon.com and archive.org, and traffic to these sites may be overcounted.

* The extent to which our sample may overcount or undercount users of the various browsers is unknown. Alexa's sample includes users of Internet Explorer, Firefox and Mozilla browsers. The AOL/Netscape and Opera browser is not supported, which means that sites operated by these companies may be undercounted.

* The extent to which our sample may overcount or undercount users of various operating systems is unknown. Alexa sample includes toolbars built for Windows, Macintosh and Linux.

* The rate of adoption of Alexa software in different parts of the world may vary widely due to advertising locality, language, and other geographic and cultural factors. For example, to some extent the prominence of Chinese sites among our top-ranked sites reflects known high rates of general Internet usage in China, but there may also be a disproportionate number of Chinese Alexa users.

* In some cases traffic data may also be adversely affected by our "site" definitions. With tens of millions of hosts on the Internet, our automated procedures for determining which hosts are serving the "same" content may be incorrect and/or out-of-date. Similarly, the determinations of domains and home pages may not always be accurate. When these determinations change (as they do periodically), there may be sudden artificial changes in the Alexa traffic rankings for some sites as a consequence.

* The Alexa Toolbar turns itself off on secure pages (https:). Sites with secure page views will be under-represented in the Alexa traffic data.

In addition to the biases above, the Alexa user base is only a sample of the Internet population, and sites with relatively low traffic will not be accurately ranked by Alexa due to the statistical limitations of the sample. Alexa's data come from a large sample of several million Alexa Toolbar users; however, this is not large enough to accurately determine the rankings of sites with fewer than roughly 1,000 total monthly visitors. Generally, Traffic Rankings of 100,000+ should be regarded as not reliable because the amount of data we receive is not statistically significant. Conversely, the more traffic a site receives (the closer it gets to the number 1 position), the more reliable its Traffic Ranking becomes.

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The effectiveness of utlizing Google, Yahoo, Alexa, HubPages, ans Squidoo to improve search results for a great foreclosure rehabber program in Illinois