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If I Were A Bank

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By bgamall


Housing Is Risky for Banks.


If I Were a Bank Would I Lend Money?

For the casual reader, this article is tongue in cheek. I am not a fan of, nor do I condone the activity of the big banks. Proof of that is here.

Update: As interest rates rise because of lack of investment in goverment bonds (due to a flood of them), banks will make money on the yields curve but the toxic assets will become even more toxic as more people default. And toxic assets are the drag on earnings for banks that will increasingly hurting the bottom line.

If I were a bank I would soak my customers for every penny through fees and high interest rates, which of course means that my customers will never trust me again. I am, as a bank, between a rock and a hard place. I must depend upon the welfare of my mommy government in order to survive the mistakes I made in the past. And they have given me license to steal and loan shark, legally!


Update: Clearly the big banks like C, BAC, JPM and WF now want to buy toxic assets from each other under the PPIP program. All this does is put taxpayers at risk if the assets move down. That is built into the plan! If the alt a and option arm loans default in massive ways, and if commercial real estate is allowed to be a part of this toxic auction, that banks will use to bid up each other's assets, the US Taxpayer will be in major peril. I repeat, the US taxpayer will be in major peril

I am not speaking for the banks officially. Think of me as a make believe bank as you read on. While this blurb is humor it is also deadly serious. Pay attentiion, you hear? If I were a bank, I would not lend on a single house purchase in Southern California. Why you ask? We need to look at the numbers. In 2007 the median price of a house in California was 500k (k for thousand). Now median prices are roughly 350k.

But historically house prices were no more than 3 times yearly income. Yearly income in Los Angeles is 54k per household. That means historically, house prices in Los Angeles should be 178k on median.To put it in a historical context,home prices should not exceed 15 times yearly rent in value!

OK, so you want to buy a house. You find an average house in Los Angeles and it is selling for about 400k. I as a banker know it could go down to under 200k. Why would I want to lend you money when I know that you could walk away from the loan when prices drop!!! Do you think I am a crazy banker?

So then, before you all get on the CNBC bandwagon and yell at the banks for not lending, you need to see what we are really up against. The ponzi scheme of easy money (and no money down and liar loans and option arms and all the rest), that was conceived by the government and by us banks to fund the Iraq War (you didn't think our federal reserve was a government entitiy did you?), is unravelling before our eyes with a major asset devaluation and deflation that goes beyond housing. And where it stops no one really knows.

But we do know that the option arm loans will hit in late 2009 and all of 2010 and into most of 2011, and these will be even worse than subprime. Way worse. Option arms could default at the rate of 70 per cent. I am a bank. I am done lending because these bozos will default and your house price will go down from here. I am not stupid. I was stupid but that is because the government "told me" to be stupid so they could pay for the Bush administration follies. But the party is over. I made my money. The party is over. Over, understand? I am a bank. Screw you little people!

And if you don't believe me borrower, listen to the videos collected here. Listen real good. You might learn something stupid borrower!

You Thought It Was Just Subprime. Option Arm Crisis! Many More Years of Economic Downturn!


Even She Could Be Too Optimistic. Banks Beware!

Banks Beware, Beware! Different Type of Downturn This Time!

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What is your opinion of the housing and banking crisis?

RSS for comments on this Hub

Disney Scrapbook  says:
13 months ago

What a great hub, I found it really interesting to say the least, great work

bgamall profile image

bgamall  says:
13 months ago

I am glad you found it helpful.I enjoyed doing it. Gary

ForexCashBack profile image

ForexCashBack  says:
3 months ago

You raise a valid point here. I know of people who are strategically defaulting on their mortgage because they are upside down. I think if the banks could write the excess loan off as a loss, renegotiate the terms of the mortgage with the home owner ie: lower monthly payments. The bank would have a happy customer and the bank can still receive money on their loan. A little bit is better then nothing. The bank would get nothing if that home owner doesn't pay and they foreclose on the house. Then money received from the house auction wouldn't even cover the original loan amount so the bank cant even make a profit there. Either way, I think the banks will lose money on their loans. Writing off the excess amount could minimize their losses. (at least thats what I would do if I was a bank and wanted to keep a paying customer)

bgamall profile image

bgamall  says:
3 months ago

It is almost like banks want to keep the real estate in hopes for appreciation. It is like they are sucking up a lot of assets of all kinds. It could bite them if the economy doesn't pick up. They are trying to drive up house prices with keeping a shadow inventory that they won't allow on the market. At some point capital requirements may require that they flood the markets with these houses. Could get interesting.

ForexCashBack profile image

ForexCashBack  says:
3 months ago

I agree, I think that the economy will be slow picking up. Considering that the latest report shows housing starts and building permits took a big tumble which indicates that one of the first sectors to bottom in the U.S. economy is beginning to show pockets of weakness. Housing starts fell 10.6 percent to the lowest level since April while building permits dropped 4 percent to the lowest since May. There is a lot of inventory on the market and more set to hit over the next year. And this doesn't even consider all the commercial real estate that is available/empty. Its not looking too good.

bgamall profile image

bgamall  says:
3 months ago

And the dollar is too weak. If China refuses to allow a bunch of hot money from Wall Street in to drive up their commodities, Wall Street will suffer. Not that I care that much, but investment should be made in the US so China can export and our consumer can come back to life, without so much credit of course.

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