As the 2010 NCAA college basketball season approaches, the Kansas Jayhawks are picked as Preseason #1 by the AP, ESPN/USA Today, the Sporting News, and every other significant polling service.  They are deep and talented with two legitimate player-of-the-year candidates, nine returning players that logged significant minutes (including all five starters), and an outstanding recruiting class featuring five newcomers, highlighted by the eighth-rated player in the country.  Optimists liken them to North Carolina a year ago and believe the Jayhawks will separate themselves from the rest of the nation; skeptics feel the Hawks overachieved last season while relying primarily on two players, and must improve significantly to compete for the NCAA championship in 2010.

What are the keys for KU in the upcoming season?  What must the Hawks do to cut down the nets in April?

The stars must improve their efficiency.  This is not a knock on Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, who are among the best to ever play their respective positions for KU.  For Aldrich, it means maintaining his statistics while playing fewer minutes.  KU must be able to give their big man more rest so he can remain fresh down the stretch, and Cole should be capable of matching last years’ numbers with less court time if teams can’t focus their defense on him (i.e., if the players around him are improved).  Collins needs to rest more also.  With fewer minutes he might not score as much as he did last year, but if he can improve his field goal percentage (37.9% of three pointers, 43.4% overall) and assist-to-turnover ratio, he will be far more dangerous. 

As indicated, for these two stars to improve, the rest of the team must get noticeably better.  Quality play from newcomers and improved performance by returning role players will prevent opposing defenses from focusing on them.  If all five starters are a threat to score, double teams become a dangerous option for opponents, and the “big two” will produce more efficiently.

Other returning players must contribute more.  No one could predict who would step up and help Collins and Aldrich offensively last season.  Brady Morningstar was reliable but sometimes overmatched, and too often Tyshawn Taylor and the Morris twins looked like the freshmen they were.  This resulted in an overreliance on Collins and Aldrich to carry the load offensively.  Indications are that as sophomores, they are prepared to step forward.  Taylor led the Team USA-Under 19 squad in scoring and assists, and appears able to accept a leadership role for the Jayhawks this season.  The Morris twins dedicated themselves to improving their physical condition in the off-season and should be ready for battle in the paint.  Travis Releford has the physical tools to contribute on the wing and could earn minutes if he improves his shot.  Among the upperclassmen, Mario Little could be a significant factor if he stays healthy, and both Morningstar and Tyrel Reed will see court time as long as they continue to hit the open shot, play good defense and minimize mistakes.  Their time might also diminish with the arrival of talented newcomers, but hopefully this will benefit them in the same manner as Collins and Aldrich—increased efficiency.

The newcomers must contribute.  KU brought in five new players for 2010 that could actually play together on the court with a center, power forward, small forward, point guard and shooting guard.  Each has the opportunity to contribute and be an important cog in the Jayhawk machine, but at least two of them must do so for KU to be significantly improved this season.  Xavier Henry is expected to start immediately and supply scoring with his outside shooting and penetration.  Who else can provide immediate help?  Early indications point to Thomas Robinson, who is considered a rebounding machine that hustles relentlessly.  His development gives Coach Bill Self flexibility and options.  If Robinson can help at power forward, Markieff Morris can be utilized more as backup center without foul worries; Marcus Morris could swing to small forward and allow the Hawks to go big.  If 7’0” Jeff Withey could also offer reliable minutes as a backup center, it should be nearly impossible to get KU’s front court in foul trouble.  Withey’s high school credentials indicate he could become a good player, and a seven-footer on the bench is always an asset. 

C.J. Henry and Elijah Johnson complete an already crowded backcourt populated by Collins, Taylor, Morningstar, Reed, and Releford, and minutes might be hard to come by for newcomers.  C.J. Henry has the potential if his game hasn’t eroded from four years as a baseball player, and Johnson is a highly-touted combo guard.  They could be good enough that Travis Releford might sacrifice playing time to one of them, with the other gaining minutes through more rest for Collins, Taylor, and Morningstar.

KU must win most of their “marquee” games.  It sounds simplistic to say KU must win games to capture a national championship, but KU plays a terrific non-conference schedule with games against Memphis, Michigan, and California.  They play on the road at Temple, UCLA, and Tennessee.  These are the games Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, Jay Bilas, and Clark Kellogg watch, and are the matchups that influence NCAA seeds in March Madness.  The more high profile games KU wins, the better they will look to the NCAA selection committee.  A loss to any of them will be mentioned on Selection Sunday.  It may seem that if KU is #1 they should be favored to win every game, but it’s never easy to play at UCLA.  Tennessee will be a very good team as well, with the return of four starters and seven players that saw significant minutes last season.

KU also needs to win against the Texas Longhorns February 8^th in Austin, Texas.  Texas is so talented and deep, this one game might determine the Big 12 regular season championship.  Regardless of how good the conference is, it seems unlikely both KU and Texas would be rewarded with #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.  It will be just one or the other until the conference is viewed in the same positive light as the other super-conferences.  A league title and top seed will only help KU in March.

End the off-court meltdowns.  Carl Henry talking to the press about what KU must do to benefit his kids and asserting they are already better than KU’s best players; sons Xavier and C.J. wondering where to best showcase their talents before landing in the NBA; Tyshawn Taylor battling the football team; or, Brady Morningstar being pulled over by the police for suspicion of driving under the influence of alcohol (while violating a team curfew)—all must become ancient history.  For this team to achieve greatness, they must devote themselves to greatness at all times.  Nothing must diminish their focus and preparation.  In 21^st century college basketball, what happens between March and November is just as important as what goes on during the season.  In this regard, KU has not lived up to their lofty rankings, but it is not too late to dedicate themselves to each other and their mutual goals.    

The fans must stay loyal to KU.  There is a satisfaction to watching an underdog play basketball that can never be experienced while following a great team.  Fans of an average squad feel euphoria when their team upsets a superior talent, and the losses aren’t as bad.  If a team is expected to win big every night, the fan feels cheated when they lose and nothing when they win.  Tops stakes basketball greatly diminishes the “thrill of victory” and magnifies the “agony of defeat”.  (Last year’s team was both glorious and painful to watch because they were good enough to dream of great things, but not quite good enough to attain them.) 

If KU loses a game or two (especially one they should win handily), it is important to stay on the bandwagon and support the Hawks.  Fan support in the stands, the newspapers, and on blog and Facebook sites really does matter.  The temptation to assume the team has imploded if they lose a game must be overcome.  It is equally important not to succumb to “David Padgett disease”.  During Padgett’s freshman year, fans rode him mercilessly despite his solid play, and at year’s end he departed.  Did the fans contribute to Padgett’s search for greener pastures in the bluegrass state?  We’ll never know for sure, but we did nothing to make him want to play for KU. 

If KU can accomplish their goals and win two NCAA titles in three years, it will put Coach Bill Self in elite status as the only KU coach to win twice (excluding the Helms National Championships awarded KU and Coach Phog Allen in 1922 and 1923).  It will do the same thing for Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins, making them the only two KU players to win two NCAA championships.  Tyrel Reed, Brady Morningstar and Connor Teahan will be able to say they were there, but they didn’t play in the championship game in 2008 and can’t claim the same contributions made by Collins and Aldrich.  A fourth NCAA championship would rarify the air Jayhawks fly in even further.

I hope it happens.