As we approach the glorious running of the 135th Kentucky Derby, most everyone who follows thoroughbred horse racing will have an opinion on who they think will win on this first Saturday in May.

Some horse players are perfectly fine with a small return by sticking with the low odds favorite.  Seems to me, for the last couple of years, there has been a heavy favorite at post time.  So, for the last couple of years, the horseplayer must be able to find a long shot in order to get a large return on investment.  I wonder if this year will be a little different.

With so many outstanding horses in the field, will there be a single low odds favorite?  This year, I may not spend as much time trying to dig out that long shot with a potential large payoff.  Rather, I will work on my exotic combinations in order to have a better chance at a decent return using the top four or six horses.

My top five horses are: Pioneerof the Nile, I Want Revenge, Friesan Fire, General Quarters and Win Willy.  The post draw isn’t until Wednesday April 29, 2009 and the weather is going to be questionable.  However, I think most of these five horses have the pedigree to support a good effort on an off track and great jockeys to keep them in the race regardless of starting post position.

So, why spend a lot of time trying to pick the long shot.  I think the odds of a long shot winning this year are very low.