MARKET Rx: IRELAND, GERMANY, THE MAFIA?
67Rx to end a CRISIS
Until yesterday the choices for global safe money were basically Ireland, Germany or the Mafia.
Developments in the United Kingdom and Italy have eased some bond and stock market pressures, but on the eve of an emergency G-7 Finance Ministers' meeting,
I will provide them with a list from my money prescription pad, which like my kids, they will likely ignore.
First, how we got here, or rather the last few days of how we got here... . .
A week ago facing a whoosh of exiting funds, the Republic of Ireland told the investing world: "Deposit funds in an Irish bank and our government's full faith and credit insures everything, no limit to the size." Deposits flowed back.
A few days later the German government seeing the start of a subprime slime slide a la USA 2006-2007 did the same thing.
Iceland tried the same thing but an entire nation with the population of Anchorage was so overextended that it is still searching for a basket of benefactors to insure their deposits.
About 20 years ago the United States Treasury looked the other way at alleged Mafia influence in some labor unions, and made a de facto decision that Continental Illinois Bank was "too big to fail" and $5 billion in Teamster pension accounts were insured. The $100,000 FDIC account insurance limit for one bank at one time was waived, and that Chicago bank was technically the "safest" in the world while officially bust.
Last week FDIC at least temporarily told people that the "new" insurance level at your bank will be $250,000 per account. The truth is that most people I have met in my financial world life never have to worry about EVER having $100,000 or the other end of the spectrum: personal and retirement accounts often well exceed $250,000.
The positive new developments came while I watched the "Question Period" from the House of Commons in London and saw cross-party endorsement of a plan which guarantees the transfers taking place between banks, creating much needed trust and liquidity, and placing one baby step on the recovery ladder.
A few hours later Italy whose banking system had less global involvement than many other Euro center economies did something innovative. The Italian government said if, and only if a bank felt crimped for collateral the government would purchase "preferred" shares of bank stock. The government would not have voting or common shares, but would participate in any rise in preferred stock price, have an interest in the success or failure of the bank, but not interfere with private investment and private consumer trust in the bank. A possible win-win for lenders and investors.
So, as the Finance Ministers meet, here is the Rx for the drugstore of international markets.
- 1. Mandatory uniform code: If Ireland's plan works it needs to be the law in each G7 country. When Americans are moving $2,000 savings accounts from bank to bank because they fear a bank "holiday" during an FDIC takeover, all solutions must be country-neutral.
- 2. Lift the ceilings: all banks that are chartered through a federal or similar jurisdiction and subject to usual and customary inspections and audits should be able to tell the public: "As a USA (German, French etc) chartered Bank, for deposits of any size are insured in case we fail. Now and in perpetuity. Period.
- 3. Primary residence rule: a mutually agreed upon discounted mortgage rate in each country will be available for personal and primary domicile or residence for an individual or family. If Spain has 30-year fixed mortgages at 7 per cent, for your personal home it might be 6 per cent. Speculators, vacation home purchasers, condo developers etc pay a higher rate. The converse of this gift will be that Interpol will track and by treaty all G7 nations will enforce mortgage origination, application, processing, collection, and packaging fraud.
- 4. Uniform threshold: Agreed limits will set enforceable felony thresholds for fines and/or prison for mortgages issued to people whose monthly mortgage payment exceeds 25 or 30 per cent of proven monthly income. Primary residential mortgages will no longer offer a Baskin Robbins menu. There will be two flavors allowed: 15 or 30-year fixed. Speculation, commercial, flipper loans etc can still use exotic mortgages but will carry no government or implied protections or bailouts.
- 5. Global insurance clearinghouse: the world can no longer trust ancient consortia such as Lloyds to protect policyholders from hurricanes, earthquake or terrorists. When AIG catches the crabs, Belgium, The Netherlands, and France start scratching. Japanese are insured by USA companies. Americans are insured by Canadian, British, French, and German companies. German insurance companies own USA mutual fund managers etc. The G7 perhaps through the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund need to make companies such as AIG "too big to fail" not for the peace of mind of policyholders alone, but for re-insurance liquidity.
- 6. Fifty ain't Nifty: Having insurance company rules in Tallahassee differ from Albany which are similar but not like Sacramento and unrelated to Santa Fe and Hartford, are archaic. States' rights might still work for fishing permits and vanity license plates. They don't work for my son in Iraq who is a Floridian who bought a policy in North Carolina before he was stationed in Arizona getting statements from an insurer in California. Let the 50 state insurance commissioners become a strong ENFORCEMENT arm of one federal insurance policy code in case of the bankruptcy of an insurer.
- 7. Social Security Solvency: as with abortion rights, national health care, and baseball's designated hitter rule, those who disagree on self-directed (no, not "privatized) social security will never agree. So the current crisis gives compromise a chance. If and when some of these "work out" assets accumulated in the federal banking midwifery turn out to be profitable, turn the gains not into the general account but into the Social Security Trust Fund to eventually assuage some of the $3 trillion I estimated 401k and other pension losses for Americans. Spain and Chile are among countries already using streamlined reforms for retirement but all the G7 countries can join with the USA in re-funding retirement accounts.
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ESAHS says:
15 months ago
"Interesting Hub!"
CEO E.S.A.H.S. Association