Manufacturing Industry
52Manufacturing Reality or Sci-Fi Delusion
At this time of celebration of the achievements of Apollo 11, in fact
of all 12 men who walked on the Moon, we shouldn't feel guilty about
asking some questions about some of the other big projects scientists
have come up with. But I'm not going to criticise the Apollo programme
itself. They set out to do something challenging but achievable, and
they pulled it off.
Unfortunately, US manufacturing industry has not been as successful. It
has been starved of investment by lots of different groups. By bankers
and investors who preferred easier pickings in the Far East. By an
overblown property market which sucked in capital into concrete and
brick. And by scientists. Scientists pursuing their own agenda, ie
research and gold-plated jobs, have also sucked a huge amount of
resources from manufacturing. But they are in many respects the worst
offenders. Because they are more intelligent than bankers and real
estate tycoons, you would expect them to know better and do the right
thing. Unfortunately a number of contentious big ticket projects have
sucked in time, brainpower and dollars that could all have been setting
America up nicely, for example, as the future of battery design for
electric vehicles, or of clean burn technology for coal resources, and
for wave after wave of desirable and cutting edge consumer goods.
Hardly any of this happened. But the deficit did. Let's take a quick
look at some of what the US got instead for an awful lot of its tax
dollars.
The International Space Station will be completed in a few years at an
overall cost of $100bn to $150bn depending on which journal you read,
the majority from the US. Most scientists admit in private that it's a
complete waste of space- literally, with almost no real science being
performed. Each Shuttle trip costs in excess of $300m. Worse, in 2016
it could even suffer the same fate as the two previous space stations,
that is burn up in re-entry if no further funds are given to NASA to
keep it up. At least $100bn up in smoke. As if that isn't bad enough,
let's factor in the retirement of the Shuttle in 2010. That leaves only
the Russians with the capability to service the ISS. Now, when has a
company or nation with a monopoly ever maintained prices? That's right.
Never. In 2010, the Soyuz programme's costs are going to go through
the roof. It will be a nice little earner, as the Brits say.
Those costs are of course limited in scope. But that kind of money
invested in manufacturing industry could have created spin-off products
and employment elsewhere. So the real objective cost could include what
you've lost by missing out on supporting manufacturing. All those
scientists could have been leading conventional engineers, who could
have trained other engineers, and so on. And I haven't even mentioned
the cost to the deficit of all the products other nations make or
assemble instead and that have had to be imported. Even that figure of
$150bn starts to look conservative by comparison. The overall cost is,
well, astronomic. That's just one project. There are a number of others.
Will there be an end to all this sci-fi delusion? Well, there's also
the possibility of a 'Mission To Mars.' This could work as a suicide
mission to deposit an American astronaut dead or alive on the surface,
with no hope of return, but as a real mission it's a non-starter. It's
portrayed as like the Moon mission but just a bit further- but the
dangers of space and the debilitating effects of zero-G for several
years can't be countered. And who can tell what their health will be
like two or three years from now? Because that's how long a mission
could take, and that's a long time away from a hospital. Total cost
estimated? It's hard to get a clear answer, but upwards of $300bn is
likely if it ever goes ahead (without inflation, cost over-runs,
re-designs, using incompatible measuring systems, etc). It costs over
$5k using the Shuttle to put a pound of anything into space. Imagine
the equipment needed to put men on Mars, help them survive for 6 months
to a year to 18 months depending on the plan. And then bring them all
back safely. It's impossible to do, and it's impossible to fund.
It is more than likely that the next astronauts on the Moon will be
Chinese. That's okay. And if they also want to go to Mars, NASA could
encourage them, because even the country with the richest banks in the
world couldn't afford it. Meanwhile, the US could concentrate all its
resources on reviving manufacturing and creating real jobs for real
people. And that really would be a giant leap forward for the US
economy.
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