Much Awaited $ Recovery ?

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By MegaTrade101


USDX

The US dollar Index made a slight recovery from last week's levels at 76.26 close to the 1st resistance of 76.90 for the month's opening price as it moved with the USD/JPY and the USD/CHF.
However, the GBP/USD has maintained its corrective levels while waitng for some economic reports from the US this week.
However, the GBP/USD has maintained its corrective levels while waitng for some economic reports from the US this week.
The late reaction of the EUR/USD moving lower shows the significant influence of the US Dollar's slight recovery with the Euro.
The late reaction of the EUR/USD moving lower shows the significant influence of the US Dollar's slight recovery with the Euro.

For the US dollar

The much anticipated US Dollar recovery is yet to be looked upon to whether it is a true sign that better times are ahead. From our previous posts, we did mention that the much awaited correction for the US Dollar is in place. Although, there are no real fundamental economic support to justify such a corrective move only on a speculative basis.

Since most economist have been weary that with the over blown deficits of the US States as stated before even by the Congress and the recent remarks made by Warren Buffet at the New York post dampened the US dollar more and may now see a slight recovery towards the end of the year. Against all odds and cyclical signs of the a corrective move though technical in nature as it has been oversold through out the entire year of 2009.

The upcoming GDP report this Thursday, the ISM manufacturing index plus the personal income reports due will provide a much needed boost for the US Dollar if the reports would be positive. As everyone else has already been questioning the supremacy of the US Dollar as the World's Reserve Currency.

With the earlier correction of the GBP/USD as influenced by UK manufacturing report still lurks in the market. As the EUR/USD followed suit earlier in the trading session as the US Dollar Index made a recovery with the USD/JPY as well. These are signs that the market place may have reached a temporary exhaustion as traders makes necessary adjustments again towards the end of the months ' trading activity as we also do. However, when such adjustment periods are done the probability of a carry over sentiments for the US dollar to continue its recovery will really depend on the economic reports. Although, mixed in market sentiments; we would see more positive outlook for the dollar as the signs in the stock market and investor's shifting to the US dollar may find some support.


Ripple Effect :

As the USD/JPY reacted more in line with the US Dollar index moving forward of the USD/CHF as shown in the chart below. Although, lagging behind that movement is simply just a wait and see attitude amongst the traders as they want some confirmations
As the USD/JPY reacted more in line with the US Dollar index moving forward of the USD/CHF as shown in the chart below. Although, lagging behind that movement is simply just a wait and see attitude amongst the traders as they want some confirmations
The corrective move of the AUD/USD is also in sync with the US Dollar's movement and from its overbought technicals for quite sometime now.
The corrective move of the AUD/USD is also in sync with the US Dollar's movement and from its overbought technicals for quite sometime now.

The cross-rates still remain our favorable choice to trade as the EUR/JPY on the upside may still look good and for the EUR/GBP to do otherwise. But the USDX price levels above the 76.90 may only be the sole price signal that will determine the upside potential of the US dollar at this time.

As investor sentiment much awaited for the past seven months have finally produced a noticeable correction. The correction in yield appetite was in equities, commodities and fixed income which have shown in the market place. However, the recovery made may look like a reversal in favor of the US dollar. But no such confirmations can be made at this writing.

The US Dollar consolidated in overnight trading after the upward momentum in New York session made stocks drop and supported a demand for the safety-correlated currency. And the Australian Business Confidence reported the highest in 15 years compared from the last report in the third quarter of this year; according to the National Australia Bank. Risk sentiment is set to continue guiding markets in European trading.

As the Aussie and the Kiwi made some corrective movements in line with the US dollar recovery for the time being. Meantime, the USD/CHF has maintained a solid bear trend for more than seven months in the overall picture. Although, the correction to the current price levels of 1.0180 - 1.0200 was also in line with the US dollar's movement together with the USD/JPY as shown on these charts. However, the recent bounce is coming upon the foundation of the dominant bear trend and meeting a confluence of technicals in the charts.

In Conclusion:

This comprehensive analysis has been derived in part from our written articles : FX Rates Analytics and especially the previous hub page article on FX Price Signals as INDICATORS.

A special interview segment in Bloomberg News with Jim Rogers may have also prompted the positive outcome and resulting to some increase in market movement in the European and Asian sessions as the US dollar have moved forward and the continuing corrective direction heading lower for the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD may have proven him correct.

Good luck and Please Choose Wisely ! 

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