New Hampshire Predictions
53DEMOCRATS
The Democrats' race in New Hampshire doesn't look tight at all in my opinion. This is Barack Obama's race (and more and more, nomination) to lose. If Obama doesn't win by a significant margin (by larger than 7% I think), we could be witnessing a Hillary Clinton comeback. After all, this is the state where her husband became the "Comeback Kid" after placing 2nd in the 1992 NH Primary. Even with a non-signficant win for Obama, Obama will still get a boost coming out of New Hampshire and still has a better shot at the Dem. nomination than Hillary in my estimation. The predictions are...
1. Barack Obama (41%)
2. Hillary Clinton (32%)
3. John Edwards (15%)
4. Bill Richardson (10%)
REPUBLICANS
The GOP race looks to be much closer than the Democrats' race in NH with John McCain and Mitt Romney looking for victory here. The Independent voter base, which is larger in NH than in IA and other states, has no doubt boosted McCain's standing in the polls among Republican voters. Romney's tenure as governor in nearby Massachusetts certainly has helpled him in NH, but McCain as of late has the edge of momemtum over Romney. Romney's disappointing loss in Iowa to Mike Huckabee certainly could (and I think will) hurt him in NH and prevent him from getting the GOP nomination. The predictions are...
1. John McCain (35%)
2. Mitt Romney (32%)
3. Rudy Giuliani (13%)
4. Mike Huckabee (12%)
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Comments
I like Rudy... so I may be wrong. I thought he'd finish 4th in IA and he finished 6th.
No way Rudy beats Huckabee
I think money will play a big part. The more the two leaders throw into the centre, the esaier it will be to pick the winner. Look at what happened with the BCCI againt the ICC. Total disater. Money is King.
Who has the most to lose or gain?
working
jdnyc says:
7 months ago
I agree with your Democrat race predictions - and it really wouldn't surprise me if Obama ended up even higher. People like to be on the winning side, and I think they sense a 'winner'.
I'm kind of surprised you think Giuliani will do that well... but it's also true that there are a lot of independent voters on the GOP side and they will like him and his thinking. This one will certainly be a surprise tonight, after the past few days and how close it all is!