Notes on the Legislature Election of 2009 in Indonesia

NOTES ON THE LEGISLATURE ELECTION OF 2009 IN INDONESIA

Finally the legislature election in Indonesia took place as scheduled on April 9, 2009. I have to appreciate the election commission on their success in managing the most complicated election in Indonesia. But I have to take notes on some flaws and weaknesses of the election. Here is some of them.

List of voters : many people reported that they did not receive invitation to cast their ballot and their names aree not on the list. I am one of them. The total number is not clear but it happened in many provinces.

Fraud : up to the third day watchers received 754 report on fraud. Most of the cases are administrative and even serious crime. Money politics are revealed in many provinces. Many people casted their ballot for many times. Even some people managed to use other people’s vote ballot.

Poor managerial skill have caused messy distribution of vote ballot, consequently in 207 voting booth there are wrong vote ballot. They received vote ballot intended for other areas. In Lampung there are 33 cases of wrong vote ballot.

Political parties have met to discuss these flaws. Prabowo Subianto the chairman of Gerindra party have met with 22 party leaders, including general Wiranto, his long time rival in the army. General Wiranto told the press that they will take legal measures to overcome the problem.

Meanwhile many people doubted the commission election’s capability to hold a better election next July. Their doubt is based on the poor managerial capacity of the commission when they organized the last election. Although the vote ballot is much simpler but the work is equally complicated. Moreover, so far there is no effective measures to solve the problem of messy list of voters.

Some people went further by stating that the problem of list of voters is well planned. They assume that there is a strong power who play the game. They argue that the problem is massive and widespread.

Besides the problem, there is another isteresting phenomenon in this election : SBY’s victory. Although the commission election has not yet finished their calculation, many research institution have published their quick count result. All of them indicate that Partai Demokrat (Democratic party) will dominate the parliament since they won about 20 % of the votes. The result of Democratic party is almost tripled of their result in the 2004 election.

Observers agreed that the big victory of Partai Demokrat is mainly because of SBY’s popularity. The SBY factor is the most important one in their victory. This case is totally different from the case with Golkar party. Golkar’s organization is strong but not its chairman, Jusuf Kalla. Koran Tempo yesterday quoted LSI, a prominent research institution that published their research on candidates electability for July election. SBY’s electability is on top. He got 54%. Megawati got only 20%. The King of Yogyakarta, Sultan Hamengkubuwono X got 6%. Next on the list is Prabowo with 6%. Then Wiranto with 4%. Meanwhile LSN, another research institution revealed that SBY got 45,1%. Then Mega got only 15,3%. Next Prabowo with 10,2%. Then Sultan with 5,8%. Next Jusuf Kalla with only 3,3 %.

Based on the polls I may come to a conclusion that SBY’s victory in the presidential election in July 2009 is almost certain. It is most likely that all political parties share the same idea. That’s why they are trying to make a coalition with Partai Demokrat. Jusuf Kalla will compete with Islamic parties to win the position of vice president. In my opinion, based on the latest polls, Golkar is a party of the past. It is diminishing now. Meanwhile Islamic parties, especially Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (PKS) is the party of the future. It is a rising star. So I think it is better for Partai Demokrat to choose their vice president from PKS.

This situation is relatively easy for SBY and his party to choose the best candidate for his running mate. The best alternative are from Golkar and Islamic parties. So far there is no decision from Islamic parties or Golkar as to their vice president for SBY’s running mate. But Sutrisno Bachir told the press lately that his party wants vice president if they support any party. Meanwhile Golkar has to face a delicate situation. One erroneous decision and they will finish. They will lose position of vice president and even ministers. As for Megawati and her party PDIP the situation is equally delicate. As Megawati won’t take position of vice president, it is not easy for her to find a perfect running mate. Demokrat party as the winning party is certainly won’t cooperate with her. The Islamic parties won’t too. The only alternative for her are leader of smaller parties like Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (United Development Party), Gerindra and Hanura. But their very low vote on the last election is insignificant to bring her back to power.

In the 1999 election Megawati’s PDIP was number one. In 2004 election they ranked number two and in the 2009 election they are number three. It is clear that PDIP is also a party of the past. It is a falling star.