Pennsylvania Primary Prediction

So after 6 weeks of campaigning across the Keystone State (including a stop at my own college-- Messiah College-- for the Compassion Forum last Sunday), Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will see if all that will pay off in votes cast in the PA Democratic Primary tonight.

I believe that Sen. Obama has his party's nomination won, but he will not win today in Pennsylvania. If the popular vote, not pledged delegates, were what determined victory in the Democratic Nomination process (and if they had winner-take-all delegation, rather than proportional delegation), then I'd be worried if I were Barack Obama. His lead in the popular vote over Hillary Clinton is not huge and I predict will be eaten into big time in PA tonight. Obama has no doubt suffered the toughest month or so of his campaign, since the emergence of the Rev. Wright controversy, his relations with unrepetant terrorist and 60s radical William Ayres, and his off-the-cuff comments in San Francisco about small-town Americans in PA and elsewhere clinging to guns or their religion out of bitterness about their economic struggles. It's becoming increasingly clear (maybe not to many Democrats, including those undecided superdelegates) that Obama is becoming just as unelectable (I would argue more so) than Sen. Clinton in a general election matchup against John McCain. But it is too late in the game for Hillary to overtake Obama in pledged delegates and even a big win in Pennsylvania won't change that.

Nonetheless, as far as PA goes, Hillary should pick up a big win here in terms of the popular vote and eat into Obama's lead in pledged delegates by probably about 20. This still leaves Obama with a 140 or so lead in pledged delegates. He should be able to win the delegates he loses tonight in PA two weeks from today (May 6) in North Carolina, where the Tarheel State's demographics are much more favorable to Obama than Clinton. Her margin could be bigger than some polls expect today. Hilary Clinton, love her or hate her, is a tremendous closer and throughout this primary, has won over most of the late undecided voters. Some polls still have 4-5% of voters undecided. Expect Clinton to pick up 3% there.

PREDICTION:

1. Hillary Clinton (56%)

2. Barack Obama (44%)