Protect Your Fanhood: 2009 Fantasy Football Draft 1.0

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By sweigand


Draft 1.0: Get Your Popcorn Ready

This is the first of what will be many fantasy football player rankings for the upcoming season. I have started out with the top 10 running backs, quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends as well as the top five defenses. For upcoming player rankings, I will expand beyond the top 10 with analysis for players besides the ones that everybody already knows. Feel free to leave me any input of your own, I have made many changes to rankings in the past based on strong arguments I have found in comments.

Also, for a look at possible rookie impact players this season click here.


Top 10 Running Backs

10. Frank Gore (49ers)

After a mediocre season, Gore should bounce back this season as long as he remains healthy in the 49ers run-first offense. The division is still pretty weak and with the third easiest schedule, he should be able to put up some top 10 fantasy points for the running back position.

9. Clinton Portis (Redskins)

Portis came to a halt after a very successful first half of the season last year but on the bright side he was able to stay healthy. He has been very consistent despite having a mediocre offense around him and he should continue to do so without a strong no. 2 back on the roster.

8. LT (Chargers)

Even though everyone is jumping ship on LT after he lost a step last season, he still plays in one of the weaker divisions in the NFL and their overall strength of schedule is on the easier side. He isn't the same LT we have been used to, but with the defense coming back healthy and Rivers continuing to improve, his job will become much easier this season.

7. Steve Slaton (Texans)

As a rookie last year, Slaton burst on the scene as a versatile back that could find holes as well as catch passes out of the backfield. He had numerous strong games despite sharing the carries with Ahman Green, but with Green out of the picture now, Slaton could be ready for a monster year.

6. Chris Johnson (Titans)

Johnson was another rookie that burst on the scene unexpectedly last year. He is a very dynamic back that like Slaton, can catch balls out of the backfield. Being in a division that is pretty weak against the run (excluding his own team), he should find a lot of success. Titans will again be committed to running the ball this year in hopes to keep Kerry Collins fresh over the course of the season.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew (Jaguars)

It is finally his time. This will be Jones-Drew's first season as the Jaguars feature back now that Fred Taylor has moved on to the Patriots. Jones-Drew's success over the past few seasons has been a little sporadic due to splitting carries with Taylor, but now this bowling ball is poised to have a monster season. The Jaguars have consistently been a run-first team and I don't see this changing this season.

4. DeAngelo Williams (Panthers)

Talk about finishing off last season hot! 15 touchdowns in his final 8 games! Williams was unstoppable the during the second half of last season and we will see it carry over to this season. One worry for this Panthers team though, is the fact that they have the second hardest schedule in the NFL in 2009. The record may not be pretty, but Williams' numbers should be.

3. Michael Turner (Falcons)

Turner's first campaign as a the go-to guy was a pretty successful one wouldn't you think? With Matt Ryan progressing as well as he has, the breakout of Roddy White, and the addition of Tony Gonzales, Turner should have even more room to run wild this season even with the third hardest schedule in the NFL this season. The NFC South has it rough this year.

2. Matt Forte (Bears)

Forte was a do-it-all back last year as a rookie that had little help from the rest of his offense all season. With the addition of Cutler and his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, the field should really open up for Forte this season and if there is one thing I know for sure, it is that the Bears love to run the football. Oh and did I mention the Bears have the easiest schedule in the entire NFL?

1. Adrian Peterson (Vikings)

There is little doubt in the fantasy football world that Peterson will be the top running back on everyone's draft board. Even if the Vikings add Favre, Peterson is the focal point of the team. We all saw how Favre deteriorated last season so limiting his throws will be a priority if they sign him. Without Favre, Peterson will still run rampant on the NFL behind one of the best O-lines and the help of the second easiest schedule in the league.

Sleepers:

Kevin Smith (Lions)

As a rookie last season, Smith showed some signs of being the Lions future feature back. Now with a rookie quarterback at the helm, expect Smith to see many more touches this season to try to make things easier for Stafford and company.

Marshawn Lynch (Bills)

Now I know Lynch isn't really a sleeper, but with his suspension to start this coming season, he will definitely drop in many fantasy drafts. It will be important to see if his suspension is 1 game or 3 games. Only 1 game and he could be a steal, but 3 games is a substantial amount of your fantasy regular season.

Over-hyped:

Ronnie Brown (Dolphins)

Not only is Brown over-hyped because of the wildcat offense, but he also rarely stays healthy for an entire season. Now that teams are widely practicing defensive schemes to stop the wildcat formation and the fact that the Dolphins have the toughest schedule this year, Brown will most likely have a mediocre season at best.

 


Top 10 Quarterbacks

10. Jay Cutler (Bears)

Without a true no. 1 receiver and the fact that he was second last season in the NFL in interceptions, I am not completely sold that Cutler will find the same success in Chicago as he did in Denver. I do however, believe he will be a decent option and if you are in one of those leagues that don't count turnovers against quarterbacks' scores then his value really increases.

9. Donovan McNabb (Eagles)

With how well McNabb did last year with all of the Eagle's wide receiver injuries and lack of experience, I think he is in for a very successful season. The growth of DeSean Jackson, a healthy Kevin Curtis, the addition of Jeremy Maclin, and the dynamic Brian Westbrook should provide a very strong receiving corp for McNabb to rely on.

8. Aaron Rodgers (Packers)

Rodgers has improved a lot over last season and many feel he is going to have a breakout year in 2009. ESPN has him ranked fifth, projecting that he will throw for over 4,000 yards this season, so he may come off the boards faster than you think. It will be important for the Pack to get the running game off to a better start this year and as long as Rodgers has Greg Jennings to throw to, he should do just fine.

7. Matt Ryan (Falcons)

After a successul rookie campaign, Ryan is poised to continue his growth this season. Ryan has excellent chemistry with Roddy White and the addition of Tony Gonzales should only help his numbers. Despite a tough schedule in 2009, Ryan has a very strong offense built around him that shouldn't have a problem putting up big numbers.

6. Tony Romo (Cowboys)

With no more T.O. on his side, Romo does lose some of his big play potential and a lot of his success will rely on how well Roy Williams steps up this season as the no. 1 receiver. We all know that Romo to Witten will produce some excellent numbers, but without T.O. demanding so much attention it may be hard to continue to produce as well as he had in past seasons.

5. Philip Rivers (Chargers)

With LT losing some of his magic last season, Rivers threw his way to the best quarterback rating of 2008. Look for Rivers to continue his success this season and the Chargers won't wait so long to put the ball in his hands in 2009. In a division full of mediocre defenses, he should put up plenty of big numbers.

4. Peyton Manning (Colts)

If Manning is healthy, he will produce. With the exception of the beginning half of last season, Manning has shown the consistency you want in a fantasy quarterback. You know just what you will get out of him. I wouldn't be concerned about the coaching changes.

3. Kurt Warner (Cardinals)

Warner shouldn't fall victim to a Superbowl hangover with all the weapons he has around him. Assuming Boldin is still there when the season starts, Warner will continue to captain the Cardinals pass-first offense to a lot of success in the weak NFC West.

2. Drew Brees (Saints)

Brees will again be one of the top slingers this year. It seems no matter how bad the Saints' defense is or what receivers are on the field with him, he will threaten to hit the 400 yard mark every single game. Another very reliable choice for the quarterback position.

1. Tom Brady (Patriots)

The last time Tom Brady played a full season, he was a monster. I don't see him breaking any records this year, but with Moss, Welker, Joey Galloway, and Grew Lewis to throw to, I don't see many defenses having a chance against this offense this season.

Sleepers:

Shaun Hill (49ers)

Hill will be a backup at best in most leagues, but in the larger leagues he could be a gem. Last season he hit double digit fantasy points in every game is started. The numbers weren't gaudy and they still won't be this season, but at least he was consistent. The 49ers also have the third easiest schedule this season.

Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks)

With the addition of Housh and barring another wide receiver injury pandemic, Hasselbeck could return to form this season. Given a soft schedule and a weak division, Hasselbeck should put up strong numbers for how far he will fall on draft day.


Top 10 Wide Receivers

10. Calvin Johnson (Lions)

I am a little wary of Johnson with a rookie quarterback at the helm, but he even put up strong numbers with Orlovsky running the show. The Lions have also brought in some help at receiver as well as a strong tight end rookie prospect in Brandon Pettigrew. It will be up to Stafford to make teams pay for sitting on Johnson and only then will things start to open up for the duo.

9. Marques Colston (Saints)

Barring another injury, Colston should have a very solid season and bounce back from a mediocre 2008. The only problem with the Saints offense is how much the ball is spread around amongst all their different receivers, tight ends, and running backs because of Brees' ability to distribute the ball.

8. Anquan Boldin (Cardinals)

Everyone is wondering if Boldin will be dealt before the season begins and the odds favor that he stays put and if that is the case then we will know just what to expect from him. Warner will continue to sling and Boldin and Fitzgerald will continue produce big numbers.

7. Greg Jennings (Packers)

Being the only main receiver threat for the Packers, Jennings will put up gaudy numbers across the board this season. Driver is slowing and Jennings will continue to be the big play machine as long as Rodgers continues to improve upon his past successes.

6. Roddy White (Falcons)

With an improved Matt Ryan and Tony Gonzales taking pressure off of White, he should be able to at least replicate the success he had last season. Look for the Falcons offense to put up some gaudy numbers this season if nothing else.

5. Reggie Wayne (Colts)

With a healthy Manning returning to form, this duo should have another excellent season in 2009. With Harrison gone, even more of the receiving load will be put on Wayne's shoulders this season, especially if Gonzales struggles and no no. 3 receiving option emerges. A very, very safe pick.

4. Steve Smith (Panthers)

Steve Smith is a nightmare to cover and will get his numbers every game as long as Delhomme throws it in his general vicinity. If Delhomme struggles early Smith could suffer, but without a suspension to start the season in 2009, he should see another excellent year.

3. Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals)

We all know what Fitzgerald can do and in an offense like the one at Arizona you know just what you are getting. He could be hurt by a possible Boldin trade, but I don't see anybody stopping him after his performance last postseason.

2. Andre Johnson (Texans)

Johnson will put up numbers no matter who is throwing to him and no matter how mediocre his supporting receivers are. He accounts for a ridiculous amount of the total receptions and yards for the Texan's receiving corp and will continue to be the focal point of the offense this season. If Schaub is healthy for the entire season then look out!

1. Randy Moss (Patriots)

With Brady back this season, expect Moss to turn back into the touchdown machine he was in 2007. I don't think he'll be breaking any records, but he will definitely put up the gaudy numbers we used to see from this deadly combo in 2007.

Sleepers:

I'm going to sleep on this one until I dive further into the receivers.

Over-hyped:

Braylon Edwards (Browns)

I still see Edwards high on many draft boards despite the Browns struggling to find a consistent quarterback and the loss of Kellen Winslow. Winslow was a viable no. 2 option and without him at tight end, defenses should be able to just sit on Edwards and stifle his production. Not to mention he will drop some of the opportunities he does get this season.


Top 10 Tight Ends

10. Kevin Boss (Giants)

With so many young receivers, it is hard to tell who will get the majority of the looks this season. Look for the Giants to utilize Boss, especially in red zone or go-to situations, to make things easier for Manning until the young receivers grow into their positions.

9. Brandon Pettigrew (Lions)

With a rookie quarterback, the Lions are going to use their tight end as much as anyone in the league this season. It is hard to tell how successful the duo will be, but at this point on the tight end draft board, it could pay to take a chance. I know that I said he will be a top 8 tight end this season here and I still think he could be, but it will be hard to pass on the other tight ends listed above him if they are still available.

8. Kellen Winslow(Bucs)

The Bucs have been raving about Winslow ever since he arrived, so we know he will be heavily utilized in their offense this season. What we don't know is who will be the quarterback for the upcoming season and if it happens to be the rookie Josh Freeman, his value will drop considerably.

7. Owen Daniels (Texans)

Daniels had the second highest yards per catch last season among tight ends where he showed his ability to stretch the field. He could be a very valuable pick that will pay dividends if Schaub is able to stay healthy all season long.

6. Chris Cooley (Redskins)

Cooley has quietly been a consistent tight end over the past few seasons despite the Redskins dismal passing game. He will continue to be a vital part to the Redskins offense this coming season if Campbell is going to have any success.

5. Greg Olsen (Bears)

The Bears lack a no. 1 receiver for Cutler, so look for the Bears to utilize the tight end position to make up for that. Olsen may not produce a lot of yards, but he should be one of the Bears' top red zone options this season.

4. Dallas Clark (Colts)

A healthy Manning and a healthy Clark should mean that a strong season for the tight end. Clark will be one of Manning's top options this year now that Gonzales is the no. 2 receiver on the depth chart and no no. 3 receiver has emerged yet so far this offseason.

3. Antonio Gates (Chargers)

Gates limped his way through last season with his foot injuries and should be back to almost 100% this season. The Chargers know that they will need to rely more on the passing game this season with LT slowing down and this means getting Gates more involved in the offense. Last season's production should just be a bump in the road, not a trend.

2. Jason Witten (Cowboys)

With no T.O., Romo can throw to Witten on every play and T.O. won't be there to get jealous. But really, this duo put up gaudy numbers for a QB to TE combo last year and it should only get better this year. I don't see Roy Williams being able to produce as a no. 1 receiver meaning even more of the load will be placed on Witten than in past years.

1. Tony Gonzales (Falcons)

Gonzales was a beast last season for each Chiefs quarterback on the roster and now with Matt Ryan at the helm and Roddy White attracting so much attention, he will be one of the best red zone options of the year for any team. Ryan is only in his second year so the Falcons will still look to make his job easier despite how successful he was last season.

Sleepers:

Brent Celek (Eagles)

He put up some decent numbers as a replacement to L.J. Smith at the end of last season and was definitely an improvement. Andy Reid has no problem utilizing the short passing game and he should be an excellent red zone option with no real go-to receivers for red zone situations.

Over-hyped:

Hard to over-hype a tight end, but I'll get back to you on that...

 


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Top 5 Defenses

5. Giants

With the defensive line healthy, expect the Giants to start stockpiling sacks again this season.

4. Titans

They lost some key free agents on defense, but don't expect them to lose a step this season. The schedule isn't the easiest, but there is a reason they dominated the regular season last year.

3. Vikings

The suspensions of Kevin and Pat Williams could hurt the defense considerably if they are upheld, but you cannot ignore the second easiest schedule in the NFL along with the best run defense.

2. Ravens

An elite defense with the sixth easiest strength of schedule this season. A solid choice.

1. Steelers

The top defense in the NFL with the fifth easiest strength of schedule this season. I like that.

 

Comments

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Michael Willis profile image

Michael Willis  says:
5 months ago

Thanks for the article.

1kmjs profile image

1kmjs  says:
4 months ago

Great Hub Bro, Pretty hard to overhype a tight end..you know it. LOL. That was a funny line. I agree with your picks and you hold a solid argument with ol Ronnie Brown. Youve seen my list so we know where we stand..we should have a hub pages fantasy football season. Bet Willis would play too. Nice Celek plug.

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