Security Analysis and Portfolio management
64Security analysis is closely linked
with portfolio management. The main objective of Security analysis is
to appraise is intrinsic value of security. As already started, there
are two basic approaches which are made in the direction viz. (1)
Fundamental Approach, and (2) Technical approach. There is third
approach known as Efficient Capital Market Theory for assessing market
price of a security.
1. The Fundamental Approach:
The Fundamental approach suggests that every Stock has an intrinsic
value which should be equal to the present value of the future Stream
of income from that stock discounted at an appropriate risk related
rate of Interest. Estimate of real worth of a stock is made by
considering the earnings potential of firm which depends upon
investment environment and factors relating to specific industry,
competitiveness, quality of management. Operational efficiency,
profitability, capital structure and dividend policy. Thus, security
analysis is done to evaluate the current market value of particular
security with the intrinsic or theoretical value. Decisions about
buying and selling an individual security depend upon the conferred
relative value. Sinc6 this approach is based on relevant facts, it
gives true estimate of the value of a security and it is widely use in
estimation of security prices
2. Technical Approach: The
other technique of security analysis is known as Technical Approach.
The basic assumption of this approach is that the price of a stock
depends on supply and demand in the market place and has little
relationship with its intrinsic value. All financial date and market
information of a given security is reflected in the market price of a
security. Therefore, an attempt is made through charts to identify
price movement patterns which predict future movement of the security,
The main tools used by technical analysis are: (1) The Dow Jones theory
which asserts that stock prices demonstrate a pattern over four to five
years and these patterns are mirrored by indices of stock prices. The
theory employs two Dow Jones Averages - the industrial average and the
transportation average. If industrial average is rising, then transport
average should also rise. Simultaneous price movement is the maid
prediction which may show bullish as well as bearish results (2) Chart
Patterns are used along with Dow Jones Theory to predict the market
movements. Various types of charts are used for this purpose.
3. Efficient Capital Market Theory: The
theory is familiarly known as "Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis:
(ECMH). It is based on the assumption that in efficient capital markets
prices of traded securities always fully reflect all publicly available
information concerning those securities. For market efficiency there
are three essential conditions:
(1) All available information is cost free to all market participants,
(2) No transaction costs, and
(3) All investors similarly view the implications of available
information on current prices and distribution of future prices of each
security.
It has been empirically proved that stock prices behave randomly under
the above conditions. These conditions have been rendered unrealistic
in the light of the actual experience because there is not only
transaction cost involved but brokers have their own information base
made available by processing compute fed date. Moreover, information is
not costless and all investors do not take similar views.
Research studies devoted to test the ECMH are put into three categories i.e.
(a) the week form theory,
(b) the semi-strong form, and
(c) the strong form.
(a) The Weak Form theory: This
theory states that current security prices fully reflect information
available in the market regarding historical events of the company
Study of the historical sequence of prices, can neither assist the
investment analysts or investors to abnormally enhance their investment
neither return nor improve their ability to select stocks. It means
that knowledge of past patterns of stock prices does not aid investors
to make a better choice. Random Walk Theory is the offshoot of this
test. The theory states that stock prices exhibit a random behavior.
Random walk Hypothesis;
The Hypothesis presupposes that stock prices move randomly. No sure
prediction can be made of future movement of stock prices on the basis
of given prices at the end of one period. There is no relationship
between today's price and tomorrow's price. Price movement is a random.
The various statistical tests conducted in U.K. and U.S.A. on stock
price have proved that the "extent of dependence between Successive
price changes is negligible".
(c) Semi-strong form of Efficient Market Hypothesis: This
hypothesis holds that security prices adjust rapidly to all publicly
available information such as functional statements and reports and
investment advisory reports, etc. All publicly available information,
whether good or bad is fully reflected in security prices. The buyers
and sellers will raise the price as soon as a favorable price of
information is made available to the public; opposite will happen in
case of unfavorable piece of information. The reaction is almost
instantaneous, thus, printing to the greater efficiency of securities
market. lt is to be noted that the semi-strong form of efficient market
hypothesis includes that week form of efficient market hypothesis also
because internal market information is a part of all publicly available
information.
(c) The Strong Form test of the inside information and the Efficiency of the Market: This
test is concerned with whether two sets of individuals - one having
inside information about the company and the other uninformed could
generate random effect in price movements. The strong form holds that
the prices reflect all information that is known. It contemplates that
even the corporate officials cannot, benefit from the inside
information of the company. The market is not only efficient but also
perfect. Lt is to be noted that it includes both the weak form and
semi-strong form of efficient market hypothesis. The findings are that
very few and negligible people are in such a privileged position to
have inside information and may make above-average gains but they do
not affect the normal functioning of the market.
Efficient Market Hypothesis has put to challenge the fundamental and a technical analyst to the extent that random walk model is valid description of reality and the work of charists is of no real significance is stock price analysis. In practice, it has been observed that markets are not fully efficient in the semi-strong or strong sense. Inefficiencies and imperfections of certain kinds have been observed in the studies conducted so far to test the efficiency of the market. Thus, the scope of earning higher returns exists by using original, unconventional and innovative techniques of analysis. Also, the availability of inside information and its rational interpretation can lead to strategies for deriving superior returns.
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