The recovery comes, the recovery delays. It wastes the analysis, but in terms of newspapers optimism seems reborn.

A search of Factiva.com has analyzed how many times the term "recovery green shoots" ( "shoots of recovery") appears in the articles of some economic tested English-speaking world: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Times, Guardian Reuters, Observer and Daily Telegraph.

Based on that research, the Economist has established a "Green Shoots Index" that graphically illustrates the exponential growth of quotations: if in October 2008 to almost zero articles spoke of "sprouts", in April 2009 we went up to seventy.

In the cold winter dominated instead of the word "recession." Now, one wonders, who knows that the term "green shoots" can be just as successful

A partially extinguish the enthusiasm (or cut off the shoots) we think that the International Monetary Fund, namely the establishment - remember - that the G20 instructed to take the world from the scruff and retrieve it from the whirlpool of the credit crunch.

According to the IMF, the global financial crisis will eventually cost more than 4.000 billion dollars at the advanced economies.

The Report of global financial stability says in no uncertain terms: "The global credit crunch is deep and designed to last." And the rise will be "slow and painful."

Lending to the private sector in the United States and Europe "should be contracting at a rate quarter on quarter annualized 4% in 2009, but mainly concerned about the situation in emerging markets where the storm has yet to unleash all its power. The costs for the finance of the rich countries, it was said, amounted to 4 trillion. Between the United States, Europe and Japan banks could be forced to write-downs for 2810 billion dollars (of which 340 million for assets held in emerging countries), insurance for 301 million, other non-bank financial institutions, including hedge funds to 1283 billion.

Leaving the IMF and passing on the Chinese front, Alun analysis feared above all a series of failures along the chain of subcontracts. In practice, the companies have suffered the Dragon credit crunch in late 2008 and opening of the claim that the authorities have forced banks could only benefit large companies. If the loans do not reach the small-medium businesses, those who have suffered from the failure to export to the West, they may require merchandise on credit from their domestic suppliers. The hardship would be construed as a whole filiera.In agreement with an investigation of Coface, the French agency specializing in credit insurance, which is already about 90% of Chinese suppliers offering goods on credit to their customers (last year was 70% ).

The merchandise is circulating on trust and no one knows how to recover the money. There is a clear problem of mismanagement of the credit, partly because it is the first time that these companies have the problem of being paid.