***************************

"In peace, we prepare for war"

T'sun T'su; 400 b.c.

***************************

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -

Preservation of the Infrastructure necessitates a progressive, on-going evaluation of the capacity for terrorist operations against physical and cyber-based systems deemed essential to the minimum operations of both our economy and our government. The escalation of "Information and Technology Warfare" threatens to undo many of this generation's cyber-based accomplishments. As such, this threat imperils the security of that generation which will proceed us; our children.

Additionally, in evaluating those defensive parameters dedicated to maintaining the overall integrity of our Infrastructure, a conscious and increased focus must be placed upon the growing threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction, or WMD. A standardized scope for combating the terrorist threat is successfully manipulated through the highly structured, four-tiered system of Quality Resources Integrity, or QRI.

In establishing and implementing QRI, this proposed four-tier evaluation system continually prioritizes and actualizes weighted factors of quality in the six Infrastructure domains of Telecommunications, Energy, Banking & Finance, Transportation, Water Systems and Emergency Services. Infrastructure counter-terrorism management is the concern of all safety and security conscious National Infrastructure Protection Center (NIPC) personnel, and therefore begins with the inter-agency individual; Not in light of a terrorist incident, but well in advance.

To understand that growing movement of opposition against the smooth and progressive direction of the Infrastructure, (hence "Infrastructure Continuance"), the evolving phenomenon of "Socioeconomic Alienation" is presented. "Socioeconomic Alienation", defines itself asa pervasive, steadily increasing domestic and international resentment against Infrastructure prosperity. Additionally, as this rapidly expanding ‘external society' develops harsher and more grandiose methods of voicing resentment against Infrastructure Continuance, an understanding of the true WMD terrorist threat looming ominously upon our horizon is revealed.

For the QRI system of evaluation to be successfully implemented, the establishment of a separate and detached liaison agency within NIPC is both recommended, as well as requested. The purpose of this such liaison agency would be to evaluate and disseminate findings and to implement operational guidance associated with its findings through appropriate local, state and Federal channels in which Infrastructure integrity is maintained.

For the purpose of this inter-agency exploratory report, various parameters foundational to effective counter-terrorism program management are outlined herein. To recognize the Information Warfare threat facing the Infrastructure, as well as the WMD threat facing society, three general operational program parameters are constructed - (1) Cognitive Threat Assessment, (2) Counter-Terrorism Requisites, and (3) Post-Terrorist Incident Recovery. Following the exploration of these parameters, the importance of progressive counter-terrorist legislation, counter-terrorist programs and counter-terrorist operations are all equally understood.

SCOPE -

This abridged report is applicable to all federal, senior state leadership and inter-agency departments and personnel whose scope of responsibility encompasses Infrastructure integrity and continuance. Additionally, the allocation, disclosure and dissemination of this report is intended for circulation through all such channels in which Infrastructure integrity is maintained.

EFFECTIVE COUNTER-TERRORISM PROGRAM PARAMETERS.

In addressing the smooth and progressive direction of the Infrastructure, or "Infrastructure Continuance", foundational parameters must be clearly structured and understood for the counter-terrorism program to be successful. These objective parameters encompass (1) Cognitive Threat Assessment, (2) Counter-Terrorism Requisites, and (3) Post-Terrorist Incident Recovery.

COGNITIVE THREAT ASSESSMENT -

• 1. THE LIKELY THREAT TO THE INFRASTRUCTURE.
  Technology is advancing at a rate of growth unparalleled to any previously witnessed era. Unfortunately, such prosperity is not without a heavy cost. As technology progresses, continually forging and redefining new growth for those systems encompassed within the Infrastructure, so does the technological advantage of our adversaries. And, as our Infrastructure interests experience the favor of this unparalleled, seemingly exponential growth, so expands the composite base of those forces in opposition to Infrastructure propagation.
  Several evolving factors can be attributed to increased adversity against Infrastructure growth - migratory population density, economic competition, a growing perception that technology is replacing human beings, shifting nationalist perspectives and hybrid allegiances are but a few contributing factors now defining a pervasive Infrastructure resistance entitled "Socioeconomic Alienation". In essence, the resulting technological boon has spawned an envious and rapidly desensitizing external society. This ‘external society' is not limited merely to renegade vigilantes, reclusive fanatics or subversive clandestine cells, but equally spans international borders comprised, in some instances of powerful, foreign governments.
  Resentment, jealousy, fear and subjugation are sample traits indicative of the Socioeconomic Alienation stigma. Additionally, these gaps will continue to widen as we enter the new Millennium, thus increasing focused resentment from those alienated governments, factions and individuals against the Infrastructure. As a result, technological advancement and Socioeconomic Alienation will find unique partnership in the terrorist threat of the twenty-first Century.
  This forecast presents the single greatest threat to the Infrastructure.

• 2. THE LIKELY THREAT TO PROPERTY
  As the Infrastructure continues its prosperous expanse, the greatest threat to property is recognized in the looming prospect of "Information Warfare". This looming prospect was poignantly identified by NIPC Director Michael A. Vatis, in his October 6, 1999 Statement for Record before the Senate Subcommittee on Technology and Terrorism.
  Essentially, as government operations expand and grow increasingly more reliant on technological advances in maintaining the United States' global G-7 superpower/leadership status, technology and information-based media will continue to be targeted by both foreign and domestic operatives seeking to disrupt Infrastructure Continuance.
  Privately held, other than government affiliated interests will be affected through an ensuing ‘trickledown effect'. Traditional property (i.e. jewelry, automobiles, etc.) will be affected on only a low-grade level. Administrative properties (i.e. Savings Bonds, stocks, etc.) which in today's automated age are maintained and tracked electronically are at greatest risk.
  As government interests are jeopardized and compromised, so shall increase the threat to these such interests and property.

• 3. THE LIKELY THREAT TO CITIZENS.
  a) Information/Technological Warfare.
  The Socioeconomic Alienation, as stated, will impact Infrastructure stability significantly if actualized. Again, the trickledown theory of digression is presented should a significant terrorist attack upon Infrastructure Information/Technological systems occur. In the event such an attack is successful, even if only temporary in nature, massive operational disruptions against some or all Infrastructure domains would successfully achieve the terrorist's intended objectives - financial upheaval, communications failure and power outages to cite but a few. In such instances the resulting psychological effects upon a society's citizens also fulfills the terrorist's objective - panic and fear.
  The likely threat to citizens is deemed substantial. However, it must be realized that a society's panic and fear mechanism is directly related to a government's ability to manage crisis. Hence, effective and proactive crisis management, to include timely response and recovery efforts is paramount in combating a victimized society's fear.
  b) Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
  Weapons of Mass Destruction, or WMD - nuclear, biological and chemical weapons - pose the single greatest mass-casualty risk to society and therefore Infrastructure Continuance. The rationale for such socially conscious WMD risk assessment is obvious: a society without citizens can not and does not exist. Therefore, without citizen-based society there can be no Infrastructure.
  Due to the intense lethality of WMD agents, scrutiny must be placed upon the ability to detect, deter and neutralize such threats. In his May 20, 1999 prepared statement presented to the One Hundredth Sixth Congress, Robert M. Burnham, Chief of the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Domestic Terrorism Section, clearly stipulated that revision to federal legislation concerning management of the WMD threat spectrum was immediately needed and long overdue. Thus, it can be inferred that a strong and conscious offense in the form of legislation, proactive law enforcement measures, preparation and intense social education, as well as other proactive citizen-endorsed initiatives, provide for the strongest defense against the WMD threat to our citizens.

• 4. THE LIKELY THREAT TO COLORADO VISITORS.
  Because Colorado has such a strong vacation and tourism industry, impact upon the Colorado economy will be substantial if there is decline in those visitors seeking holiday and/or recreational retreat in our state. Any safety and security threat, actual or perceived on the part of such visitors to Colorado, will immediately and adversely impact our state's economy through lost tourism revenue. In forecasting and planning potential terrorist operations against the Infrastructure, appropriate consideration must be granted to the impact of these negative operations against our state's collateral economic interests, as stated.
  As with Colorado residents, Colorado visitors utilize our state's Infrastructure to some degree. Therefore, the likely threat to those Colorado visitors reeling from the effects of a terrorist attack against one or some domains of the Infrastructure is situational in nature and deemed equal to the likely threat facing Colorado residents.

COUNTER-TERRORISM REQUISITES -

• 1. THE NEED FOR PREPARATION.
  On-going and regular training is needed in the campaign to detect, delay and neutralize terrorist measures against those interests vital to Infrastructure Continuance. Additionally, safeguarding our citizens against terrorist schemes utilizing agents and toxins with WMD association, is equally paramount.
  The preservation of our government, capable of maintaining its Constitutional obligations necessitates the preparation against those actions detrimental to our national security and survival. The sobering realizations of Bio-Terrorism, Cyber-Terrorism and Weapons of Mass Destruction threaten the delicate balance of our freestanding society, as well as the continuance of our Infrastructure.
  Preparation in defense and anticipation of terrorist attacks against the Infrastructure, and our society, is achieved through proactive law enforcement measures, social consciousness, passage of offensive legislation, redundant security firewalls, appropriate security clearances and other associated parameters.
  Is such preparation needed? Yes, because establishing progressive safety and security parameters are not examples of irrational paranoia, but rather the next logical progression, and firewall in guaranteeing our political, social and economic positioning as we enter into the new Millennium.

• 2. THE NEED FOR MITIGATION.
  The need to mitigate threats to Infrastructure stability is obvious and must continue to evolve with technology. Effective mitigation is therefore reliant upon an aggressive three-step mitigation process - Deterrence, Detection and Denial.
  a. Deterrence is achieved through political engagement, such as the passage of strong legislation carrying severe penalties for Infrastructure imperilment.
  b. Detection is achieved through continual inter-agency assessment of risk factors threatening Infrastructure Continuance and stability.
  c. Denial is achieved through aggressive and proactive military and law enforcement efforts to suppress and neutralize Infrastructure risks.

• 3. THE NEED FOR RESPONSE.
  Rapid and decisive response procedures must be in-place, regularly rehearsed and, most importantly, attainable. This fact cannot be over-emphasized. Ensuring that recovery procedures are successfully achieved and maintained by those emergency personnel and agencies responsible for their operational implementation is the vital key to effective crisis management.

POST-TERRORIST INCIDENT RECOVERY -

• 1. THE NEEDED PLANNING EFFORT.
  Again, as technology advances, so advances the technology of our adversaries. Thus, aggressive planning to suppress those threats imperiling our Infrastructure must remain equally current and progressive.
  Following a terrorist attack, the ability to immediately organize, mobilize and manage recovery efforts reassures a victimized population. The resulting mass-psychological effect of timely and professional emergency response efforts fosters social cohesion, diminishes alienation and reestablishes centralized leadership and command/control authority amidst a disaster's chaos.

CONCLUSION -

The ancient warlord T'Sun T'su outlined his credo for battle, "In peace, we prepare for war." Today, some 2,600 years later, his doctrine still maintains its wisdom and its integrity. Unfortunately, the schematics of modern conflict are evolving and quickly made obsolete. In light of this fact, or perhaps as its result, our on-going preparation must remain dedicated in thwarting terrorist operations against Infrastructure Continuance.

The game of complacency trains its athletes to achieve only a prize of second place. As the ante is raised, our position must remain dedicated to detecting, deterring and neutralizing potential terrorist threats. Second place in Infrastructure security is an unacceptable status; particularly when Information Warfare Terrorism ominously threatens to unravel many of our paramount Twentieth-century accomplishments. Additionally, second place security ensures that those components defined under the auspice Weapons of Mass Destruction place our existence upon a teetering, dangerous balance and within grasp of a growing number of highly proficient terrorist adversaries.

Essentially, to maintain our quality of life, and to guarantee an equally fruitful quality of life for future generations, we ask ourselves two painfully exploratory questions - What jeopardizes our balance, our society, our citizens? At what cost is achieved a heightened state of readiness and protection? Our respective balances are dependent entirely upon the integrity of the Infrastructure. Conversely, Infrastructure Continuance is dependent entirely upon social propagation; thus a truly symbiotic partnership. Additionally, the financial and psychological costs of heightened readiness and heightened security are negligible in comparison to the forecasted end result - a safe society and secure Infrastructure expansion.

In closing, recommendation is hereby made to the state's senior leadership for the progressive exploration and the increased development of proactive research to detect, deter and neutralize those existing threats deemed detrimental to the overall security of our Infrastructure.

© 1999, 2007, 2008 - R. MARTIN BASSO