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Tracking Swine Flu Vaccine & Its Side Effects

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By LiamBean


Swine Flu & Spanish Flu

2009 H1N1 Influenza A is the true name of this virus.

Media finds it much easier and more memorable to refer to the virus as "Swine Flu." A few short years ago it referred to an earlier strain of this same virus as "Avian Flu." It has to do with where it is first discovered.

In health science all strains are assigned an H (hemagglutinin) number and an N (neuraminidase) number along with the year. Hemagglutinin and neuraminidase are proteins that sit on the surface of the virus (see micrograph) and allow the virus to both "unlock" and invade a healthy cell, and once replicated in that cell, "unlock" and escape that cell. Think of H (hemagglutinin) as the key into the healthy cell and N (neuraminidase) as the key to escape the now infected cell.

There are sixteen (16) H and nine (9) N subtypes known in birds, but of these types only H1, H2 and H3, and N1 and N2 are commonly found in humans. This is why when Swine Flu was first discovered in pigs there was cause for alarm. It is also an H1N1 virus. This meant there was a real possibility of a Swine Flu epidemic in the human population.

The Spanish Flu of of 1918 was also an H1N1 virus. The H1N1 of 1918 is quite different than the H1N1 of 2008~2009 because of the fast mutation of these viruses. Also, because the protein structures themselves change, sometimes radically, the H1N1 of this decade is so far considerably milder than the Spanish Flu of 1918.

There is still considerable debate about why the 1918 flu caused so many deaths. One possibility is what is called a "cytokine* storm." Note that the word "possibility" here indicates that it's a theory; not a fact.


Progression of a Cytokine Storm
Progression of a Cytokine Storm

It is known that the H5N1 bird flu, also an Influenza A virus, causes a cytokine storm, in birds. It is thought (theory; not fact) that the "Spanish Flu" caused those killed by it to suffer from a lung infection which, in turn, prompted a strong immune response. The release of too many cytokines in turn caused lung tissue destruction, which in turn caused secretion of liquids into the lungs. Victims effectively drowned in their own body fluids. This is thought to be the main reason so many younger people died of Spanish Flu. In effect a "too-strong" reaction from their strong immune systems.

Of course, there is a potential for the "Swine Flu" to mutate and have similar effects on people today. This latest variant also affects more of the young than old. This can be seen from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) inoculation recommendations below.

In simpler terms the H protein and N protein determine how a cell is invaded and, once the virus replicates, how it escapes the invaded cell and spreads. The shape of these proteins and your body's ability to recognize them and destroy them is what provides immunity. Because the viruses change so much and so often a slight change in these proteins is enough for your body to fail to recognize them as a threat until the virus has gained a foothold. Historically this happens about once or twice a year.

Reading my hub Cytokine Immunity Technologies will give you a rundown on what cytokines are and how they've been considered as an alternative to antibiotics.

* A cytokine is a naturally produced messenger substance present in all terrestrial life-forms. Cytokines can detect foreign substances in a body and call upon the immune system to produce t-cells, macrophages and the like. Cytokines can also "ask" these cells to create more cytokines.


Photo-micrograph of H1N1 courtesy CDC. The "spikes" seen on the outside are H and N proteins.
Photo-micrograph of H1N1 courtesy CDC. The "spikes" seen on the outside are H and N proteins.

CDC Tracking Efforts

All versions of the vaccine are on-track for an October 2009 release. They appear to be quite effective at providing immunity to those who receive them. In fact, earlier reports had adults getting a minimum of two injections six months apart. As of now the estimates are one injection only for the entire year.

Every flu season though a number of deaths and other ailments are attributed either to the flu itself or the vaccine created to prevent it. Unfortunately the CDC has had little few tools available to either discount or confirm these reports.

This year it will be different.

Is it the Vaccine or Chance?

For example, roughly three (3,000) thousand people a day have a heart attack. If one of those occur right after a vaccination will the vaccine be the cause or will it just be statistical odds?

The CDC hopes to address this by combining databases covering approximately fifty (50) million U.S Citizens. This will give them a huge statistical sample to work from. The idea is to be able to detect any rare and real reaction to the vaccine or simply find that it was a statistical probability of "too many cheeseburgers."

Dr. Daniel Salmon of the Department of Health and Human Services put it this way: "Every day, bad things happen to people. When you vaccinate a lot of people in a short period of time, some of those things are going to happen to some people by chance alone."

The CDC's aim is to vaccinate half the U.S. population in just a few short months. That's one hundred seventy five million (175,000,000) people in the U.S. This will be no small feat as typically no more than one hundred million (100,000,000) Americans are vaccinated a year.

Because vaccine safety is key not only to those vaccinated, but also to those considering vaccination, it's important to track problems and isolate the real from the imagined or rumored. In this way the CDC can respond rapidly to reports of problems.

By contrast the 1976 vaccination effort was hampered by rumors that the inoculation was responsible for a rise in Guillain-Barré syndrome. The CDC had no way of either confirming or discounting these reports. Had they the tools now proposed, it would have been able to answer the question; did the vaccine cause this syndrome or not?

This time around the federal government has paid for:

  • Harvard Medical School to link together insurance data for fifty (50) million people from vaccination registries. This data will be available to the entire country for real-time checks of reported problems to doctors.
  • Johns-Hopkins University to direct e-mail to at least one hundred thousand (100,000) vaccine recipients to track how they are feeling. They will even be asking for minor complaints that do not typically require a doctor's visit. This way trends can be spotted and monitored.

Also the Centers for Disease Control is:

  • Preparing cards that vaccine recipients can take home with them instructing them on how to report any side-effects of the vaccine. This data will go into the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting system.
  • Compiling a list of "routine" health incidents so it can rapidly spot any changes to these trends. The list would include such data as the number of heart attacks per week (25,000), miscarriages (14,000~19,000), and even anaphylaxis (300). This way any change in the norm could trigger a closer examination and possible health warning.

Additional benefits are sure to become apparent as the data are processed and compared.

Spanish & Swine Flu Immunity

Update November 3, 2009

From Nature Magazine:

The new Nature report also assessed the immune response of different groups to the new virus. The most intriguing finding, according to Kawaoka, is that those people exposed to the 1918 virus, all of whom are now in advanced old age, have antibodies that neutralize the H1N1 virus. "The people who have high antibody titers are the people born before 1918," he notes.

Vaccine Shipment Status via the CDC (aggregate)

(click column header to sort results)
State  
Total Doses Shipped 10/14/09  
Total Doses Shipped 10/21/09  
Alabama
102,600
162,700
Alaska
25,200
31,600
Arizona
180,200
263,300
Arkansas
60,100
121,000
California
836,900
1,309,100
Chicago
71,400
158,700
Colorado
88,400
159,700
Connecticut
79,900
128,100
Delaware
15,700
15,700
District of Columbia
14,500
33,900
Florida
242,700
503,200
Georgia
204,700
353,000
Hawaii
32,600
58,200
Idaho
45,600
73,700
Illinois
114,000
507,800
Indiana
240,800
273,200
Iowa
54,000
135,000
Kansas
27,400
90,600
Kentucky
73,600
138,600
Louisiana
79,400
187,900
Maine
33,300
51,600
Maryland
130,700
229,800
Massachusetts
189,600
269,700
Michigan
151,200
308,300
Minnesota
48,900
117,100
Mississippi
10,000
73,800
Missouri
10,000
174,400
Montana
17,800
38,900
Nebraska
45,500
62,100
Nevada
71,600
103,900
New Hampshire
25,600
51,800
New Jersey
158,000
234,500
New Mexico
40,000
79,100
New York
204,800
311,700
New York City
151,000
417,400
North Carolina
190,100
321,900
North Dakota
13,900
30,900
Ohio
203,500
434,500
Oklahoma
65,200
130,700
Oregon
59,800
144,000
Pennsylvania
218,100
471,500
Philadelphia
37,500
62,400
Rhode Island
15,800
18,700
South Carolina
74,600
158,700
South Dakota
17,300
39,900
Tennessee
160,400
241,100
Texas
178,300
831,400
Utah
64,500
110,200
Vermont
14,800
34,200
Virginia
265,100
315,700
Washington
75,600
227,500
West Virginia
46,500
89,600
Wisconsin
168,600
237,600
Wyoming
11,400
24,000
Many thanks to jiberish for finding this.

Inoculation Recommendations

The CDC recommends that the following be vaccinated:

  • Women who are pregnant or about to become pregnant
  • Those who live with or care for children younger than 6 months old
  • Emergency and Healthcare personnel
  • Persons between the ages of 6 months and 24 years old
  • Persons between of 25 and 64 years of age who are suffering from chronic health disorders
  • Anyone coping with a compromised immune system

The Swine Flu Figures to Date

September 28, 2009

In the U.S. there have been one hundred thirty-eight thousand (183,572) cases of Swine Flu so far resulting in six hundred sixty-three (663) deaths. One thousand sixty (1,060) of those cases are unconfirmed.

In Mexico there have been thirty-two thousand twenty-five (32,025) cases reported resulting in three hundred fifty-eight (358) deaths.

In China fourteen thousand six hundred sixty-three (14,663) cases have been reported. This is the extent of the report from China with no mention of deaths or unconfirmed cases.

In Japan thirteen thousand three hundred ninety-nine (13,399) cases of Swine Flu have been reported resulting in eight deaths. Nine of those cases are unconfirmed.

In Canada there have been nine thousand eight hundred (9,810) cases reported resulting in forty-six (46) deaths with two hundred thirty-nine (239) unconfirmed.

In The Russian Federation three hundred seventy-four cases (374) cases have been reported. This is the extent of the report coming out of the Russian Federation.

Though these figures indicate that the U.S. has the highest number of cases and fatalities, this may simply be due to better reporting in the U.S.

October 16, 2009
U.S. figures have risen to 239,832 confirmed cases of Swine Flu with 2,304 fatalities. This is a slight drop in the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths since this hub was written. Figures for all other countries listed in the table have not changed. This is clearly due to a lack of reporting.

October 20, 2009

U.S. figures have risen to 252,205 confirmed cases and 2,801 deaths. This is a slight rise from the October 13th figures. Again, figures from all other countries remain the same. Again, this is due to a lack of reporting.

October 23, 2009

U.S. figures have risen to 280,808 cases with 2,808 deaths. The infection to death ratio has dropped to an even one percent of diagnosed cases. However, of these 2,808 deaths 95 were children. This indicates, as the CDC feared, that this version of flu is particularly hard on children. That means that of the 2,808 deaths 3.5% of them were children under the age of eighteen.

WHO reports that most nations have now stopped reporting the number of confirmed cases of flu as well as deaths related to the flu.

You can compare the figures immediately above with those at the top of this section for an idea of the rise since this article was written.

All figures gathered from the link below.

2009 H1N1 Cases to Date by Country

(click column header to sort results)
Country  
Cases  
Fatalities  
Deaths as Percent  
U.S.A.
358,487
3,657
1.02% *
Mexico
32,025
358
0.84%
China
14,663
not reported
 
Japan
13,399
8
0.67%
Canada
10,030
85
2.43%
Russian Federation
373
1
0.02%
Updated November 14, 2009. As on the 23rd only the U.S. numbers changed. * The infection to death ratio has dropped slightly since this article was written.

CDC Estimates

November 14, 2009
Please note this is an estimate! Doctors stopped testing individual patients, by and large, around the beginning of October 2009. These estimates are based on past statistics garnered from known cases. These numbers represent cases starting in April 2009 to now.

The Centers for Disease Control estimate that four (4,000) thousand persons have died out of twenty-two (22,000,000) million having caught the Swine Flu. Of that four (4,000) thousand it is estimated that five hundred forty (540) were children or 13.5% of fatalities.

Terms

Epidemic: from Greek epi- upon + demos people. An epidemic occurs when new cases of a certain disease substantially exceed what is "expected."

Pandemic: from Greek pan- all + demos people. Is an epidemic that occurs in populations of a large region, continent, or world-wide.

Updates

October 7, 2009
The Swine Flu nasal vaccination is now available in Indiana, Illinois and Tennessee. These states must share the seven (7) million doses available. The injection form will be available next week. Ultimately, the federal government ordered two hundred fifty (250,000,000) million doses.

October 8, 2009
The CDC reports that one quarter (1/4) of Americans sick enough to be hospitalized with swine flu ended up in intensive care. Seven (7%) of those died. This is a little higher than the usual seasonal flu numbers. Nearly half those hospitalized have been children between 6 months and 19 years of age. This is significant as seasonal flu typically strikes the elderly.

October 16, 2009
The CDC reports that distribution of the inject-able form of the vaccine is running behind schedule. Instead of a mid-month release (now) the CDC is now saying most states should have the vaccine available by the end of the month. (October). Further, the original 40 million doses has been cut to from 28 to 30 million doses.

October 21, 2009
The CDC now reports that Swine Flu (2009H1N1) injectable vaccine will not be widely available until mid-November.


Coda

I've seen signs, print ads, and television advertising for flu shots. Many say they are available now! Since mid-October is the announced date of availability I doubt it's for Swine Flu. It might just be for the regular winter flu.

Be sure to ask and make sure what you are getting.

Tamiflu and Tamiflu Issues

Confusing directions

Doctors often prescribe Tamiflu in fractions of teaspoons; however, the dropper packaged with the drug is in milligrams.

This potential confusion in directions could cause parents to mistakenly give too little or too much of the drug to their children. Too little and the child's recovery will be impeded. Too much and parents could be facing a toxic overdose.

Dr. Michael Wolf of Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine stated: "It's an egregious error that there is a conflict in the prescription labeling instructions and the dosage device that comes in the exact same box, It's incredibly confusing to parents."

This is a real problem. A teaspoon is a measure by volume. A milligram is a measure by weight. The two don't really convert from one to the other.

So, should your doctor prescribe Tamiflu be sure to ask him/her to prescribe the recommended amount in milligrams not teaspoons or fractions of teaspoons. -- Source Source FDA, Food Consumer

October 30, 2009
Apparently children's Tamiflu is in short supply, but adult Tamiflu is still widely available. it is possible to take the adult medication and tailor it for children.

Have the pharmacy you purchased the prescription from modify it for children's use. They can not only "convert" the capsule form to a liquid, they can also add flavoring more pleasing for children. This is an FDA approved procedure and is actually printed on the Tamiflu adult capsule supplement that comes in the box.

Children's Tylenol (Acetaminophen)

Medical researchers testing both the Swine and Winter flu vaccines have found that giving Children's Tylenoltm (or child's acetaminophen) can actually reduce the effectiveness of the vaccine. Why this happens is not yet known, but the effect is real.

Therefore health researchers are now recommending that Children's Tylenol (or acetaminophen for children) not be given in the first days after vaccination. -- Source MSN Health & Fitness, Atlanta Journal Constitution

Comments

RSS for comments on this Hub

emdi profile image

emdi  says:
2 months ago

very relevant article

fastfreta profile image

fastfreta  says:
2 months ago

Until I got to the last part of the article, I thought that I was reading a Greek novel, (I don't read Greek), LOL! However the rest of the article was very informative.(No laughing matter). Frightening, but informative. The statistics are frightening, considering that the toll the flu took on lives, and it wasn't even flu season. Your explanation on the flu of 1918 was plausible, although I didn't understand that cytokine storm thing, your explanation made sense though.

LiamBean profile image

LiamBean  says:
2 months ago

As always fastfreta, thanks for the comments.

Cytokines are a natural body defense. At one time it was thought that T-Cells called on other cells in the body to attack invading cells. Now it is known that cytokines are not only the true messengers, but are also created by the very cells they call up for defense. So when cytokines send out a call for T-Cells, macrophages, etc. they also "instruct" those cells to create other cytokines. Thus a cytokine storm.

Turning Point profile image

Turning Point  says:
2 months ago

Very good info, thanks for making it available.

LiamBean profile image

LiamBean  says:
2 months ago

Thank you Turning Point!

how-toplayguitar profile image

how-toplayguitar  says:
2 months ago

Man, that's good stuff. My understanding is that the swine flu vaccine just got relesed to some states yesterday. It has made our local news as 4 students in the same school have been diagnosed with it.

edguider profile image

edguider  says:
2 months ago

Great hub. I have already started to see the swine flu vaccine available in my local clinic. :)

Dao Hoa profile image

Dao Hoa  says:
4 weeks ago

Great info, very through. Thanks

LiamBean profile image

LiamBean  says:
4 weeks ago

Thank you Dao! I really enjoy your hubs as well. Very well written and insightful.

shyonegb profile image

shyonegb  says:
4 weeks ago

Hi LiamBean, in Australia the Swine Flu only affected less than 2,000 people and only less than 100 deaths. Still no cause for a pandemic. I will not vaccinate as the testing for the vaccine was rushed and not conclusive to its side effects. If your president is urging for people to vaccinate, will won't he and his family vaccinate?

LiamBean profile image

LiamBean  says:
4 weeks ago

shyonegb: Thanks for the comment.

The World Health Organization declared Swine Flu a pandemic two months ago, but have since backed off of that declaration.

The president and Ms. Obama did not get the Swine Flu vaccine, but their two daughters did. The stated reason for the wait is that the Obamas want to make sure the "at risk" in our population get vaccinated before they do.

They are also both over twenty-five years of age and healthy. This puts them outside the "at risk" group.

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