Technical Analysis of the Spot Forex, Does It Work??
68Does Technical Analysis Of the Spot Forex Work ??
There is no evidence whatsoever that technical analysis works.
First of all lets define "technical analysis", if at all possible.
Technical analysis is well defined in places like wikipedia and but forex traders who use it every day more than likely would each give you a different answer if you asked them to define it. This is because the world of technical analysis is without end, there over 150 technical indicators and over 100 candlestick chart formations alone, and that is based on just one timeframe.
Just pick one technical indicator at random like relative strength index. This index can be applied to any one of 10 timeframes and you can start with RSI 14 (period 14) and see if it "works". If it does not "work" then you can try RSI 15, 16 then 17 then it pretty much goes on from there, its endless. But remember all of these RSI periods are on just one timeframe!! You would have to start over and try RSI for various periods on a different timeframe and then go through about 10 timeframes seeing if it "works" again. It sounds like a lifetime of research from the start but no pips in your account.
If you use two technical indicators together with different combinations of periods and timeframes you now have, mathematically, an infinite number of combinations based on different period manipulations and timeframes. If you devote the proper time to seeing if any technical indicators on one period and one timeframe works properly it would take a few months.
If you project this over may indicators you have just spent your entire lifetime seeing if a handful of indicators "work" and you never placed one trade you just kept testing and testing indicators with no proof anywhare that they actually work. Knowing that there are over 150 technical indicators, 10 different timeframes, and infinite combinations of period adjustments, I can say that actually defining technical analysis is now not even possible for most forex traders.
Also since 99% of forex traders use technical analysis or forex robots based on technical indicators we have just defined hundreds of thousands of traders wasting thousands of hours each testing and months or years of their lives testing to see if technical indicators "work".
To define if technical analysis "works" now lets at least attempt to define "works".
In order to prove something "works" you would have to get an independent research group or university to design statistically significant tests in a controlled environment so that the specific technical indicators tested had a written procedure for use. Then a large group of traders would have to use the indicators correctly for a long period of time.
Then the results of the trading and the study following the strict guidelines could only be reported based on the market conditions during the testing period. The overall forex market conditions could be trending, oscillating or choppy and we know that the forex market condition varies over time among these three.Also defining the market condition would have to have exact criteria not subjectivity.
The results could then state that based on the test conditions and market conditions you got certain results, so many pips or so many stopouts, or a certain percentage of positive trades. The results could only be duplicated under the same test conditions and market conditions. If the market conditions change the indicators would no longer work. Once again as a retail forex trader you cant make this work because the market condition changes from month to month. Or every couple of months you would have to use a new set of indicators for that specific market.
You cannot say technical analysis works unless you can define technical analysis, in this case most forex traders cannot even define it. You cannot say that technical analysis of the spot forex works unless you can define "works", defining "works" can be done but with strict limitations based on the exact indicator used, correct consistent use and within a defined market condition (which could change tomorrow).Once again if the market conditions change the indicators will no longer work.
How many forex traders are able to identify the market condition or when changing market conditions?? The answer to that is nearly none. This is because they are usually staring at a chart of one pair on one timeframe and the technical indicator they are watching doesnt work anyway.
Up to now we have talked about technical analysis failures but we have not even discussed money management and human emotion considerations. But if anyone thinks that every single person is going to operate any technical analysis system the way it was intended is not being realistic. People are human, emotional and subject to many outside forces including greed and a list of about 10 other emotions that affect trading. This is the appeal of automated systems and forex robots in eliminating the emotions but automated systems use technical indicators and you are back to square one of endless testing of indicators that have no proof of success. Its an unending loop of failure.
Now you can see why 99% of forex traders fail.
What now?? Good question.
Lets try doing the opposite. Lets design a system based on forex market logic that does not use technical any technical indicators, that works on any currency pair under any set of market conditions, even after non farm payrolls. A system designed and based based completely on market logic and no emotion. A system that works every day. The end user must simply do what is says and papertrade it for 30 days.
The reaction of a technical trader to a proposal like this would be somewhat predictable. They would never accept it, and why would they?, they use technical analysis and so does everyone else. Being wrong after using technical analysis a long time hurts. If you want to see a simple forex trading system with no technical indicators like this please continue reading.
A simple system to trade the spot forex without technical indicators is available now, this forex trading system uses no technical indicators and sits on your desktop telling you what pair to trade and in what direction, it operates in real time, it also tells you when not to trade. Its a smart system and tells you the market condition at all times. Trading confidence and pip production starts increasing along with an understanding of how the forex works. Scalping the EUR/USD and GBP/USD with upside down money management will be a thing of the past.
It is estimated that 8 million people trade the forex. 99% of them fail. Its time to get rid of all of these awful technical indicators and expert advisors and simplify your trading and just start to make pips. Do as many web searches as possible looking for independent studies about technical analysis effectiveness and you will reach the conclusion that it is a waste of time. You will remove these indicators from your computer and move to this simple system.
This system is based on individual currency strength and weakness or parallel and inverse analysis of the sopt forex. It is very logical and the indicators are easy to evaluate and all you have to do is watch it in the London and US session and watch the system work for you by papertrading for about 30 days. So check it out and spread the word, trading the forex is possible for anyone who wants to keep it simple. THis simple trading system will change your paradigm about the spot forex.
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