The decline of the human population
73Unnatural population decrease
Population decline
Population decline
When looking at the numbers, we can predict population declination rates based on several factors such as below-replacement fertility, disease, famine, war, natural and man made disasters. If you are one to frequently watch CNN, it would not be hard to imagine some plague or terrorist poising on the borders, waiting to reduce the human population by devastating numbers.
In reality however many of these events contribute very little to population decrease as a whole. For example, an estimated 20 million people in 1969 died due to famine in China. Compared to a world population 3.6 billion, the famine in China represented .05% of the population total. When you compare the death total to China's population of 800 million in 1969, we see that the famine represents 2.5% of China's population. A small drop in the bucket when you consider the birth rate in China at the time was 33.43%
Another example is the plague of Justinian. Though records of this event can hardly be called accurate, we see that this plague killed over a quarter of the Byzantine Empire and reportedly killed over 100 million worldwide. Some historians have gone as far to suggest a total European population loss of 50-60% between the years 541 and 700.
World-wide birth rate
Population growth
Put into perspective, we find that the reduction in birth and fertility rate will have a much higher impact on population decline than other factors. The greatest risk to human population is below-replacement fertility. According to the US Census Bureau, population growth has decreased since 1963 showing a 1% drop. Based on a worldwide average, women were giving birth to 3.3 children in 1990. As of 2002, that number has dropped to 2.6.
These numbers represent a decline in fertility rate, though it remains high enough to create an increasing world population. As the ratio of birth to death near each other, we will see unnatural population factors as we stated above, take a comparatively higher toll on the world population.
With so many factors being involved in birth and fertility rates, none can predict whether or not this trend of decrease will continue, and if it does, when it will create a negative population effect.
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Comments
Interesting Hub, Scott.
The decline of the Greek population is so serious that they actually pay people to have children. If it were not for immigration, the drop would be very steep.
I say the less people the better, thanks for the facts. Of course, I hope the only reason why we decrease is because we choose to.
It is handy to know the numbers and ratios. It takes me back to the image of a young man saying "I have to go to war, I don't want to die a virgin." Or perhaps more appropriately it brings to mind a scene from the movie Ice Age 2, when Manny the mammoth is telling the girl mammoth that it is their duty to repopulate the earth with their species...
I would ask, though, why when you read the request "When will the human population start to decline?" you went with the option to answer with numbers instead of an answer based on morality or intelligence.
Your Fan
-Calliope Jones
Interesting stuff, Scott. The only time I've heard of anything making a significant dent in human population was when watching a report about super volcanoes (many months ago) on History Channel. They claimed that the last known eruption (sorry, cannot remember the volcano's name) nearly wiped out the human race - by as much as 80%.
Of course, I never bothered to check these numbers for accuracy. But, I was wowed, none-the-less!
"The decline of the Greek population is so serious that they actually pay people to have children. If it were not for immigration, the drop would be very steep."
The big population decline in Greece is a purposeful ploy to make Greece weak and destroy Greek language and heritage, the former which is the oldest Indo-European language a direct derivative of ancient Sanskrit making thereby Greek the mother langauge of all European languages including Latin.
This is happening because as the bastard Henry Kissinger had said when the CIA created the coup and military junta in 1968 which ruled Greece for 7 years and also was responsible for the illegal annexation of Cyprus in 1974, if you want to destroy Greeks, destroy their language and culture and this is what is precisely being done up to this very day. This was a very carefully masterminded cunning and evil ploy to separate Greeks from their language and thus strong and culture and heritage so as to pave the way for the entry of Turkey into Europe and the illegal annexation of more Greek lands - islands by Turkey. This is precisely why Greece has the highest per capita illegal aliens in the entire EU. What is today happening in Greece is organised crime at its highest level and it is being done by the USA who want world supremacy through their multinational companies unfortunately something which is also being sponsored by Greece's current fascist government which is selling Greece short on every single conceivable level. The only thing that will save Greece is a bloody revolution against all the political mainstay.
Elisavet,
Not to nay say your conspiricy theory, but if you want to kill off the greeks, you don't do it over decades in some clever ploy. You sell off the national landmarks and companies to the americans. Thats what we Canadians did. Alternately you can blow up some american landmark, blame it on greek radical terrorists and it will be all over in a few years.
My point being, you theory is very convoluted for such a simple task.
Thanks for reading
One thing is sure as far as concerns the case for Greece. The hefty decline in birth rates in Greece is primarily owed to the policies of the fascist regime which has been in power in Greece for the last 5 years. They have a very specific and purposeful agenda of stealing assets and property from ordinary Greeks, increasing taxes to such an extent, increasing property tax to such an extent that it is not viable to own property any more. They also cooperate with companies especially private sector ones in coercing employees to work 15 hour days without extra remuneration and also the body for the protection of employee's rights is bribed by government officials and the Prime Minister Karamanlis is also involved in bribing scandals in Siemens and many consulting firms as well as mot dangerously in the health care system. As is well known moreover, the prime minister's wife, Natasa Pazaiti-Karamanli became a doctor after only two years in medical school. The fascist regime are purposefully degrading every day life for ordinary Greeks in order to make them into fully subservient citizens; citizens who will be entirely and blindly dependent on a system dictated by demagogue politicians. Greece is a fascist state, spread the word.
Job advertisements are continuously allowed a free for all, almost all nowadays specifying that they require personnel who do not have any family obligations and companies operate above the law as far as concerns sacking of women who become pregnant or those who have children. This is what is truly happening in Greece. Greece is an uncivilised third rate fascist country which provides no opportunity whatsoever for its population and is literally killing off its people.
Boycott Greece - do not come to Greece, Greece is the most expensive country in Europe - Greece is ripping off tourists and laughing in their face while providing a very bad all round tourist product. The fascist government which has now been in power for the last five years is being supported by a very well organised neo-con rich ruling elite who live as though they were in another country. Greece kills its children - look at the purposeful killing of a 15 year old teenager in December 2008. Greece is killing off its environment and selling it off to multinational interests and corporations - look at what happened when the "New Democracy" fascist government burned the whole of Greece in 2007. Greece is purposefully dismembering and devaluing its health and education system priviatising everything purposefully so that only a few have the basic of rights in this country. Greece is dismembering and devaluing its peripheral regions: the villages, the islands and not providing any opportunity whatsoever for regional areas. The current Greek government is even selling drugs through its connections in order to kill off a large number of the illegal alien population in Greece as well as Greek citizens as it is hoped that this will decrease the need for benefits and will solve the problem of unemployment which in Greece the true number stands at 23%. Greece is degrading its city centre so that criminals such as Babis Vovos the "famous architect" can buy cheap and create glamorous buildings who will employ the bastards supporting this shambles in Greece. I agree with Elisavet, the only way forward in Greece is a bloody revolution - all politicians must be dragged out of Parliament and hanged and mutilated in public.
There is no future in Greece - and that is precisely why nobody is having any kids any more.
Yes guys,
Greece is a shambles. The country is collapsing and is collapsing fast. How can one have children today if there is no future. The way I see it there are only two available options for Greeks who respcet themselves and for those who truly love Greece: either revolt or suicide. This country is not giving us hope anymore. Corruption is everywhere even in the legal system which supposedly was the only institution that could do something about corruption. Greece definately deserves the worst, no doubt about that. The only way to help Greece is to spread the word across the world of what is truly happening in our country, as this is the only way that positive change will come and this rotten status quo will be overturned.
I am now 34 should I have a child or not? Would you if you lived in Greece?
Quoting Sufidreamer: The decline of the Greek population is so serious that they actually pay people to have children. If it were not for immigration, the drop would be very steep."
Actually this is not entirely true, the government pay a monthly payment of approximately euro 400 if a family has 4 children or more. And as far as concerns immigration, yes that is true for Albanian and Polish immigrants but not for all the rest who have come from third world countries as these people can barely support themselves let alone have a kid.
It's amazing that Greece is undergoing such social strife and breakdown, but this is only to be expected when incompetence and corruption are set as examples by Karamanlis for the rest of us to follow. If Greece must move forward, the current government must be forced out of power either peacefully or violently.
The government of Nea Dimokratia, which has been ruling from March 2004, has devoted itself entirely to destroying Greece, destroying the Greek language, destroying the culture of Greece and destroying its ethos, ethics and values. Nea Dimokratia is a fascist ruling elite of criminals sponsored by multinational construction firms mainly German and UK based which sponsored the destruction of Greece through arson wildfires during 2007 which killed 92 people (along with those who died in hospital through their wounds) and over 6 million birds, reptiles, mammals and amphibians. Those fires were a coordinated pre-meditated attempt to sell off Greece cheaply to foreign interests. The fascist government of Nea Dimokratia is only too happy to continue selling the Greek soul off to the devil so long as its ministers continue stealing from the general public in order to build illegal villas in various Athens suburbs. The Minister for Environment in Greece - Mr Souflias has an illegal villa on stretch of beach and another illegal one atop a mountainside dedicated as a national park!! The reduction in birth rates in Greece is a direct consequence of the anti-human politics and policies of Nea Dimokratia, who do not wish people to be autonomous, conscious, free and thinking individuals. Instead they want to rule as zygotes and render Greece and Greeks weak. Let's hope that we all surmount enough energy to start a revolution in Greece. These criminals must be put out of power the soonest possible. Nea Dimokratia have a pre-meditated plan of destroying opportunity in Greece. There is utterly no point living here anymore and there is definately no point in having children anymore. Only a revolution will help us or an immediate implementation and re-instatement by Presidential decree of democarcy and delegated power once more. At this time the entire country is literally falling apart and corruption is rife everywhere.
The end of the human race is the only way that the planet and animal life will survive. Humans are the cancer of the earth. The less of us the better. Yes I am very altruistic believing that nature deserves far more than us and furthermore, do not attach any sacrosanct value to human life.
Patty Inglish, MS says:
12 months ago
Very interesting matireal about which to think, Scott. when I have time, I am going to look at some current research and see if they have any particula formulas in place. Thanks for the Hub.